College Football Red River Showdown Betting Picks: #10 Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns

#10 Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns
Cotton Bowl – Dallas, Texas
Saturday, October 10, 2015, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: Oklahoma -15 1/2
Current Line: Oklahoma -16 1/2
Opening Total: 63
Current Total: 59 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -850 / Texas +575
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -850 / Texas +575

Oklahoma is a 17 point favorite against Texas Saturday in Dallas.
Oklahoma is a 16.5 point favorite against Texas Saturday in Dallas.

The 1-4 Texas Longhorns are off to their worst start since 1956. Now, the Longhorns are desperate for a win as they take on the 4-0 Oklahoma Sooners in the annual Red River Showdown in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

Texas leads the series 60-44-5, but Oklahoma has won 10 of the last 16 since Bob Stoops took over as coach for the Sooners. Oklahoma won 31-26 last year.

Texas is coached by Charlie Strong. The only win for Texas came at home over Rice 42-28. The Longhorns have narrow home losses to California 45-44 and Oklahoma State 30-27. Both of those teams are ranked in the top 25. However, it is on the road that Texas has truly been humiliated. The Longhorns were crushed at Notre Dame 38-3 in the season opener and last week at TCU 50-7. Both teams were ranked in the top 15 at the time of the game. TCU jumped out to a 30-0 lead in the first quarter. The Horned Frogs would cruise to an easy victory. Only a late Texas touchdown prevented a shutout. TCU outgained Texas 604 yards to 313. TCU was a 14 point favorite and the total was 73. Texas is 1-4 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season.

Oklahoma has home wins over Akron 41-3, Tulsa 52-38 and last week over West Virginia 44-24, along with a road win at Tennessee 31-24 in double overtime. Oklahoma was a 6.5 point favorite against West Virginia and the total was 61. The Sooners took a 24-7 lead into halftime. However, West Virginia would pull to within 27-24 in the third quarter. The Mountaineers would turn the ball over on three straight possessions including a 41 yard fumble return for a touchdown. The Sooners held on for the 20 point win. West Virginia had 5 turnovers to 2 for Oklahoma. Oklahoma is 3-1 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season.

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Texas is being outscored 38-25 this season. The Longhorns average 339 yards per game on offense including 167 passing and 171 rushing yards. Texas is #94 or worse in total and passing offense, plus scoring. On defense, Texas is allowing 507 yards per game including 297 passing and 211 rushing yards. The Longhorns are #109 or worse in all defensive categories including points allowed out of 128 FBS teams.  Texas has forced ten turnovers and has five of their own. The Longhorns average 71 penalty yards per game and opponents average 54. Texas is 24/77 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/81. The Longhorns have forced 7 sacks and allowed 17. Texas is 9/10 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns. Opponents are 23/25 with 17 touchdowns. Texas has a punt return for a touchdown plus 3 defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Jerrod Heard has thrown for 661 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and rushed for 318 yards on 67 carries and 3 touchdowns. Tyrone Swoopes has thrown for 175 yards and a touchdown, and has also rushed for 85 yards on 19 carries with a touchdown.

Running back Johnathan Gray has 53 carries for 204 yards with 3 touchdowns, plus 5 catches for 79 yards. D’onta Foreman has 44 carries for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 52 yards.

Receiver Daje Johnson has 14 catches for 201 yards. He is questionable with a concussion.  John Burt has 9 catches for 222 yards and a touchdown.  Armanti Foreman has 10 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown.

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Oklahoma is outscoring teams 42-22 this season. The Sooners are #10 in scoring nationally. Oklahoma is averaging 522 yards per game on offense including 358 passing and 164 rushing yards. The Sooners are in the top 11 nationally in both total and passing offense. On defense, Oklahoma is allowing 363 total yards per game including 203 passing and 160 rushing yards. The Sooners have forced 7 turnovers but have 8 of their own this season. Oklahoma averages 94 penalty yards and opponents average 78. The Sooners are 24/62 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 29/79. Oklahoma has forced 13 sacks and allowed 10 this season. The Sooners are 17/20 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns, and opponents are 11/13 with 7 touchdowns. Oklahoma has a defensive touchdown this season.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield has completed 65.2% of his passes for 1,382 yards with 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and has rushed for 138 yards with 4 touchdowns on 38 carries. Back-up Trevor Knight has thrown for 51 yards with an interception.

Running back Samaje Perine has 72 carries for 328 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 7 catches and a touchdown. Joe Mixon has 27 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown, along with 11 catches for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Sterling Shepard has 20 catches for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns. Dede Westbrook has 17 catches for 282 yards and a touchdown. Durron Neal has 14 catches for 260 yards and a touchdown. Mark Andrews has 8 catches for 154 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS after passing for 280 yards or more, 9-4 after scoring more than 40 points, 2-7 in October, 1-4 after a cover and in neutral site games. Four of the last five games in this series have gone over the total.

Texas is 5-2 ATS after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 1-4 against teams with winning records, and in October, 1-5 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 1-6 overall, 0-4 after a straight up loss, and after allowing more than 450 total yards, and 0-6 after allowing more than 280 passing yards. The Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five games in this series when listed as the home team.

It is amazing how little talent Texas has on both sides of the ball. There doesn’t seem to be any pride either from the upper classmen who should be the team leaders. Looking at the schedule, only Iowa State and Kansas appear to be winnable. As for this game, I think Oklahoma rolls to an easy win in a high scoring game.

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