College Football Picks, Odds, Trends: Florida St. Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals

Big South Tournament

Florida State at Louisville
Time: 2:30 PM CT
Spread: FLST -7
Total: 46

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Florida State Seminoles have fallen, far even, from its days as a nationally ranked powerhouse. The Seminoles are an unranked, ordinary ACC team now, but it is still 7-point favorites in week 5 as it visits Louisville, another team that has fallen off the past coupleĀ of seasons. All that aside, the game will air at 2:30 PM (CT) on ESPN2, and it has an over/under set at 46 points according to college football oddsmakers at 5dimes.

Last week, Florida State knocked off Northern Illinois 37-19. But the week prior it lost to Syracuse, and it opened the season with an embarrassing blowout loss to Virginia Tech. Deondre Francois has struggled mightily after sustaining a season-ending injury last year. Though talented, it has been tough to tell: He has thrown five interceptions already, matching his five touchdowns, while also only picking up 7.32 yards per pass attempt.

The backfield has hardly been any better.

The Seminoles average just 2.9 yards-per-carry, and its lead running back Cam Akers is good for just 4.6 yards on his 60 carries. Keith Gavin and Nyqwan Murray both have over 200 receiving yards on the season, but neither has scored a touchdown. The Seminoles are just colossally weak in areas it usually excels in, but rebuilding takes time and the team is still hoping Francois begins to look like the five-star prospect he once was. Needless to say, a 1:1 TD to INT ratio is not resemblant of that.

Louisville fell to .500 last week as it was trampled 3-27 by Virginia. Much like FSU, the Cardinals have done little more than massively downgrade its quarterback position, but at least the story comes with the silver lining that its former QB became an NFL stud. In his stead, Louisville has gone with Jawon Pass and Malik Cunningham, but neither has been great. Pass was just 10 of 19 (52 percent) for 113 yards last week, and he has not thrown above 57 percent in any game this season. Cunningham, a freshman, is overall a more talented player, but he lacks the arm strength of Pass.

Cunningham has completed 64.7 percent of his passes but averages a paltry 5.82 yards per attempt. At times, he makes up for it with his rushing, but that is an inconsistent aspect of his game, and it leads the Cardinals to be just as inconsistent at times. He managed 129 yards on 21 attempts in Week 3 against Western Kentucky, but last week against Virginia he gained only 26 yards on 10 attempts. Which Cunningham will show up? Can Pass throw the ball with better accuracy?

There are a lot of questions to be answered, and that is behind the reasoning by oddsmakers in favoring the Seminoles in this affair.

ATS TRENDS:

Florida State
  • Seminoles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
  • Seminoles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Seminoles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Seminoles are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Seminoles are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • Seminoles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
  • Seminoles are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
  • Seminoles are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Louisville
  • Cardinals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
  • Cardinals are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
  • Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
  • Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
  • Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
  • Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf.
  • Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
  • Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
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