The Panthers opened as 10 ½ point favorites, but over the course of the week the line has dipped down to 9 or 9 ½ points, depending upon the site you use to check your college football betting odds. The public is playing the Cardinals at about 2:1, but fading the public favorite in this situation looks like a good play.
The situational numbers definitely favor Pittsburgh. Against the spread over the past 3 seasons, Pitt is 8-2 in October, 7-3 off a win against a conference rival, 11-6 against teams with a winning record, and 5-2 as a favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points. On the flip side, Louisville is a putrid 4-12 against conference opponents, 7-11 as an underdog, 4-9 against teams with a winning record, but also 8-4 in October.
Pittsburgh is starting to come into midseason form. As their record against the spread indicates, Pitt is great in October. They crushed Rutgers, outgaining them by over 300 yards! They’ve won both of their Big East games by a combined score of 86-35.
The offense is finally hitting its stride, primarily because of the resurgence of Dion Lewis. Lewis came into the season as a potential Heisman candidate, but struggled early on. He racked up 130 yards against Rutgers and averaged 7.6 yards per carry. Along with Lewis in the backfield is Ray Graham. Graham carried the load while the team waited for Lewis to get on track. Running behind a powerful offensive line, these two running backs make up one of the most underrated tandems in the country.
Freshman quarterback Tino Sunseri is starting to get more comfortable, too. Sunseri has had tough games. Against Utah in week 1, the freshman signal caller through a crucial interception in overtime that cost the Panthers the game. Against Miami at home, he was awful. But he’s coming off a big game against the Scarlet Knights. Sunseri had over 300 yards passing, along with 3 touchdowns.
The defense has played well. They’re giving up only 92.4 yards per game on the ground, and 315.3 total yards. In their two Big East games, the Panthers have collected 6 turnovers.
Louisville is having a decent season, but their wins aren’t that impressive. They’ve beaten Eastern Kentucky, Arkansas State, Memphis, and Connecticut. The game that stands out is UCONN, but remember, Cody Endres was suspended for the season leading up to that game. Without their quarterback, the Huskies had all kinds of problems. They failed to gain 200 yards and turned the ball over 3 times. Without Endres’ arm, the Cardinals stacked the line, shut down Jordan Todman, and that was that.
Keep in mind that Pittsburgh has dominated Louisville over the past two seasons. Last year the Panthers won by 25 in Louisville, and the year before that, Pitt won by 34 at home. In total, they won the two games by a combined score of 76-17. In other words, Pitt has owned the Cardinals.
The squares are helping to give some extra value here. The line has dropped a point or a point and a half, which is nice for Pittsburgh backers. Don’t be afraid to break with the public on this one. Too much attention is being paid to Louisville’s game against UCONN, and not enough is being given to Pittsburgh’s recent play. Fade the public favorite and lay the points with Pitt.
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