College Football Peach Bowl Betting Preview: #9 Ole Miss Rebels vs #6 TCU Horned Frogs

2014 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
#9 Mississippi Rebels vs #6 Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, Georgia
Wednesday, December 31, 2014, 12:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: TCU -3
Current Line: TCU -3 1/2 (-105)
Opening Total: 56 1/2
Current Total: 56
Opening Money Line: TCU -170 / Ole Miss +145
Current Money Line: TCU -175 / Ole Miss +150

TCU is a 3 point favorite against Ole Miss in the 2014 Peach Bowl.
TCU is a 3.5 point favorite against Ole Miss in the 2014 Peach Bowl.

The 11-1 Texas Christian Horned Frogs must get over the disappointment of not being selected for the four team college football playoff. TCU was #6 in the final rankings and will take on the 9-3 Mississippi Rebels in 2014 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Wednesday in Atlanta. The Peach Bowl is the first of the New Year’s Six Bowl games that used to be known as BCS Bowls before the playoff.

TCU was 8-1 in the Big 12 and tied for the conference title with Baylor. Ole Miss was 5-3 in the SEC West and finished third. Ole Miss leads the series 5-1 against TCU but they haven’t played since 1983. The Rebels have won 4 straight games against the Horned Frogs. TCU hasn’t beaten Ole Miss since 1949. Ole Miss is 2-0 all time in bowl games against TCU, the last meeting in the 1955 Cotton Bowl.

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Ole Miss is 23-12 all-time in bowl games. The Rebels have won 10 of their last 11 bowl games, including 6 straight. Ole Miss is playing in their third straight bowl game and beat Georgia Tech 25-17 in the Music City Bowl last year. The Rebels are playing in the Peach Bowl for only the second time and first since 1971.

TCU is 13-15-1 all-time in bowl games. The Horned Frogs missed out on a bowl last year for the first time since the 2004 season. TCU went 6-2 during their eight game bowl streak, but lost the last game 17-16 to Michigan State in the 2012 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.

Ole Miss is coached by Hugh Freeze. The Rebels started off the season 7-0 but went 2-3 down the stretch. Mississippi has road losses to LSU 10-7 and Arkansas 30-0, along with a home loss to Auburn 35-31. The Rebels have a win over Boise State 35-13 in Atlanta, road wins over Vanderbilt 41-3 and Texas A&M 35-20, plus home wins over Louisiana 56-15, Memphis 24-3, Alabama 23-17, Tennessee 34-3, Presbyterian 48-0 and against Egg Bowl rival Mississippi State 31-17 in the last game of the regular season. Ole Miss is 7-4-1 ATS and the total is 2-9 this season. The Rebels were 2.5 point underdogs against Mississippi State and the total was 53.

TCU is coached by Gary Patterson. The only loss for TCU came at Baylor 61-58. The Horned Frogs had a 21 point lead in the fourth quarter of that game. TCU has won 7 straight games since then. The Horned Frogs have home wins over Samford 48-14, Minnesota 30-7, Oklahoma 37-33, Oklahoma State 42-9, Texas Tech 82-27, Kansas State 41-20 and Iowa State 55-3 in the last game of the regular season. TCU has road wins at SMU 56-0, West Virginia 31-30, Kansas 34-30 and Texas 48-10. The Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS and the total is 8-4 this season. TCU was a 34.5 point favorite against Iowa State and the total was 68.5.

Ole Miss is outscoring teams 30-14 this season. The Rebels are #1 in points allowed nationally. Mississippi averages 444 yards per game including 276 passing and 168 rushing yards. The Rebels are in the top 35 in total and passing offense. On defense, Ole Miss is allowing 322 yards per game including 188 passing and 134 rushing yards. The Rebels are in the top 30 nationally in all three categories nationally and top 15 in total and pass defense. Ole miss is +7 in turnovers with 28 takeaways. The Rebels average  42 penalty yards per game and opponents average 53. Ole Miss is 78/187 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 64/197. The Rebels have forced 25 sacks and allowed 26 this season. Mississippi is 28/39 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns and opponents are 23/32 with 12 touchdowns. The Rebels have 4 defensive touchdowns and have allowed 2 this season.

Mississippi quarterback Bo Wallace has completed 61.2% of his passes for 3,085 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and also has 107 carries for 213 yards and 5 touchdowns. Running back Jaylen Walton has 98 carries for 583 yards and 5 interceptions, plus 18 catches for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jordan Wilkins has 48 carries for 358 yards and a touchdown. I’Tavius Mathers has 60 carries for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 5 touchdowns. Mark Dotson has 4 rushing touchdowns.

Four Rebel receivers are out for the season including leading receiver Vince Sanders who is out with a knee injury. Sanders had 39 catches for 696 yards and 6 touchdowns. Evan Ingram has 37 catches for 651 yards and 2 interceptions. Laquon Treadwell has 48 catches for 632 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is out for the season with a broken leg. Cody Core has 38 catches for 530 yards and 6 touchdowns. Quincy Adeboyejo has 25 catches for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. Three defensive players are also out for the season.

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TCU is outscoring teams 47-20 this season. The Horned Frogs are #2 in scoring and #18 in points allowed nationally. TCU is averaging 542 yards per game on offense including 333 passing and 209 rushing. The Horned Frogs are #4 in total offense, #7 in passing and #35 in rushing nationally. On defense, TCU is allowing 360 yards per game including 242 passing and 117 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs are #14 in rush defense, #34 in total offense and #88 in pass defense.  TCU is +18 in turnovers with 36 takeaways. The Horned Frogs average 58 penalty yards per game and opponents average 51.  TCU is 83/196 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 70/225. The Horned Frogs have forced 35 sacks and allowed 20 this season. TCU is 54/63 scoring in the red zone with 38 touchdowns and opponents are 26/30 with 13 touchdowns. The Horned Frogs have 7 defensive and special teams touchdowns and have allowed 2 this season.

TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin has completed 60.5% of his passes for 3,714 yards with 30 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 142 carries for 642 yards and 8 touchdowns. Back-up quarterback Matt Joeckel is out indefinitely with a leg injury.

Running back Aaron Green has 111 carries for 854 yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 17 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown. B.J. Catalon  has 98 carries for 493 yards and 10 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 163 yards and a touchdown. He also has a kick return for a touchdown. He is out with an upper body injury. Trevorris Johnson has 45 carries for 271 yards and 4 touchdowns. Little used running back Shaun Nixon is also out indefinitely.

Receiver Josh Doctson has 59 catches for 959 yards and 9 touchdowns. Kolby Listenbee has 38 catches for 709 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is questionable with a concussion. Deante’ Gray has has 34 catches for 564 yards and 8 touchdowns, plus 8 carries for 88 rushing yards. Ty Slanina has 29 catches for 367 yards and 2 touchdowns. David Porter has 36 catches for 377 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Ole Miss is 6-0-1 ATS in neutral site games, 4-0-1 in bowl games, 4-1-1 after a cover, 11-3-1 after passing for more than 280 yards, 21-6-1 in non-conference games, 5-2-1 after a straight up win, 5-2 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 17-7-1 on fieldturf, 9-4-1 after allowing less than 20 points, 13-6 after passing for more than 280 yards, 1-4-1 after rushing for more than 200 yards, and 1-4 overall.

TCU is 6-0 ATS after gaining more than 450 total yards and allowing less than 20 points, 5-0 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 4-0 in non-conference games, and after allowing less than 275 total yards, 8-1 against teams with winning records, 7-1 after passing for more than 280 yards, 12-2 overall, 5-1 after allowing less than 100 passing yards, 9-2 after a win, 8-2 after a cover, 6-2 after scoring more than 40 points and winning by 20 points or more, 0-7 in neutral site games and 0-5 in bowl games.

This will be a match-up of TCU’s explosive offense against Mississippi dominant defense. I think the rebels can slow down the Horned Frogs but with a depleted receiving corp for Ole Miss I think TCU wins a close game.

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