College Football PAC 12 Championship Game Betting Picks: #7 Stanford Cardinal at #11 Arizona State Sun Devils

2013 PAC 12 Championship Game
#7 Stanford Cardinal at #11 Arizona State Sun Devils

Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe, Arizona
Saturday, December 7, 2013, 7:45 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Arizona State -3
Current Line: Arizona State -3 (-115)
Opening Total: 55 1/2
Current Total: 56
Opening Money Line: ASU -160 / Stanford +135
Current Money Line: ASU -160 / Stanford +135 

Arizona State is a slight favorite at home against Stanford in the Pac 12 Championship game. The winner will go to the Rose Bowl.
Arizona State is a slight favorite at home against Stanford in the Pac 12 Championship game. The winner will go to the Rose Bowl.

The 10-2 Stanford Cardinal won the Pac 12 North Division with a 7-2 record. Stanford travels to the 10-2 Arizona State Sun Devils who won the South Division with an 8-1 record in Saturday’s Pac 12 Championship game. The winner will clinch a berth in the Rose Bowl. Stanford can clinch a second straight Pac 12 championship and a fourth straight trip to a BCS Bowl. Stanford has won 11 Pac 8/10/12 titles. Arizona State looks to return to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1997. The Sun Devils have won three Pac 10/12 titles.

Arizona State leads the series against Stanford 16-12, but Stanford has won 3 straight in the series. Stanford beat Arizona State 42-28 at home in the Pac 12 opener for both schools September 21 of this year. The Cardinal took a 39-7 lead into the fourth quarter of that game and held off a furious Sun Devil rally.

Stanford is coached by David Shaw. The Cardinal have road losses at Utah 27-21 and at USC 20-17. Stanford has home wins over San Jose State 34-13, Arizona State 42-28, Washington 31-28, UCLA 24-10, Oregon 26-20, California 63-13 and last week against Notre Dame 27-20, along with road wins at Army 34-20, Washington State 55-17 and Oregon State 20-12. The Cardinal are 6-6 ATS and the total is 5-7 this season. Stanford was a 16.5 point favorite against Notre Dame last week and the total was 49.5.

Stanford took a 7-3 lead at the end of the first against Notre Dame. The Cardinal would expand the lead to 14-6 by halftime. The Fighting Irish pulled to within 24-20 by the end of the third quarter. Stanford added a field goal with 9:16 left in the fourth quarter to make it 27-20. Notre Dame would have three more possessions but they ended with a three and out and two interceptions. Notre Dame had 263 total yards including 199 passing yards. Stanford had 419 total yards including 261 rushing yards. Both teams had 2 turnovers. The Cardinal had 5 penalties for 52 yards.

Stanford is outscoring teams 33-19 this season. The Cardinal are #13 in points allowed nationally. The Cardinal are averaging 404.9 yards per game on offense including 195.9 passing and 209 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #96 in passing and #25 in rushing nationally out of 125 FBS teams. On defense, Stanford is allowing 341.8 total yards per game, including 254 passing yards and 87.8 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #3 in rush defense and #16 in total defense, but the pass defense is #98 nationally. Stanford is even in turnovers with 17 takeaways. Stanford is 96/181 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 71/199. Stanford averages 41 penalty yards per game and opponents average 48. The Cardinal have forced 35 sacks and allowed 11 this season. Stanford is 40/45 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns and opponents are 29/37 with 19 touchdowns. The Cardinal have two pick sixes this season and 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns, and have allowed one fumble return for a touchdown.

Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has completed 61% of his passes for 2,210 yards with 19 touchdowns and 9 picks, along with 67 carries for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Tyler Gaffney has 284 carries, 1,485 yards and 17 touchdowns, along with 13 catches, 90 yards and a touchdown. Anthony Wilkerson has 74 carries, 296 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 38 yards. Receiver Ty Montgomery has 53 catches, 868 yards and 9 touchdowns, plus two kickoff returns for touchdowns. Montgomery also has 12 carries for 137 rushing yards.  Devon Cajuste has 25 catches, 471 yards and 5 touchdowns. Michael Rector has 11 catches for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kodi Whitfield has 16 catches for 170 yards and a touchdown. Three defensive players are listed on the injury report including 2 defensive ends.

Ariz0na State is coached by Todd Graham.  The Sun Devils have home wins over Sacramento State 55-0, Wisconsin 32-30, USC 62-41, Colorado 54-13, Washington 53-24,  Oregon State 30-17 and last week against Arizona 58-21, along with road wins at Washington State 55-21, Utah 20-19 and at UCLA 38-33. ASU has won 7 straight games. Arizona State has a road loss at Stanford 42-28 and against Notre Dame 37-34 in Arlington Texas. The Sun Devils are 7-5 ATS and the total is 9-3 this season. ASU was a 10 point favorite against Arizona  and the total was 61.5.

Arizona State had to beat rival Arizona at home last week in order to host this game. The Sun Devils jumped out to a 27-0 lead against the Wildcats and never looked back. ASU would take a 30-7 lead into halftime. Arizona would pull to within 16 points twice in the third quarter, but Arizona State would answer each time. The Sun Devils had a 64 yard pick six in the quarter. ASU would add 2 fourth quarter touchdowns to complete the rout 58-21 and claim the Territorial Cup trophy. The Sun Devils had 478 total yards including 204 rushing yards. The Wildcats had 424 total yards including 249 rushing yards. Arizona had four turnovers and ASU had one.

Arizona State is outscoring teams 43-25. ASU is #8 in scoring nationally. The Sun Devils are averaging 473.2 yards per game, including 285.4 passing and 187.8 rushing yards. ASU is #25 nationally in passing and #22  in total offense. On defense, the Sun Devils are allowing 351 yards per game, including 217.2 passing yards and 133.8 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are #24 in total defense and #25 in rush defense.  The Sun Devils are +13 in turnovers with 30 takeaways. ASU is 84/187 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 76/203. ASU averages 29 penalty yards per game and opponents average 55. Arizona State has forced 36 sacks this season but has allowed 33. The Sun Devils are 64/69 scoring in the red zone with 45 touchdowns and opponents are 32/38 with 24 touchdowns. The Sun Devils have allowed two defensive touchdowns this season and have forced five pick sixes .

ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly has completed 62.6% of his passes for 3,337 yards with 27 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, and also has 127 carries for 437 yards and 8 touchdowns. Back-up Michael Eubank has three rushing touchdowns.

Running back Marion Grice has 191 carries, 996 yards and 14 touchdowns, along with 50 catches, 438 yards and 6 touchdowns. He is out with a knee injury after missing the Arizona game as well. D.J. Foster has 65 carries for 307 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 54 catches 550 yards and 3 touchdowns. Deantre Lewis has 50 carries, 271 yards and a touchdown, along with 5 catches for 91 yards. R.J. Robinson has 27 carries for 109 rushing yards and a touchdowns.

Receiver Jaelen Strong has 69 catches, 1,067 yards and 7 touchdowns. Chris Coyle has 28 catches, 413 yards and 4 scores. Kevin Ozier has 19 catches for 302 yards and a touchdown. Richard Smith has 25 catches for 227 yards and 2 touchdowns. De’Marieya Nelson has 2 touchdown catches. Three defensive players are out for the season.

Stanford is 4-0 ATS in December, 12-3 after allowing 275 total yards or less, 10-3-1 against teams with winning home records, 19-6-1 in road games, 6-2 after failing to cover, 21-8-1 after rushing for more than 200 yards, 36-15-1 after a straight up win, 9-4 after passing for 170 yards or less, 20-9 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 34-16-1 overall, 35-17-1 in Pac 12 games, and on grass. The over is 5-2 in this series in Tempe recently.

Arizona State is 5-1 ATS after gaining more than 450 total yards, and on grass, 4-1 at home, 6-2 in Pac 12 games, and after rushing for 200 yards or more, 5-2 overall, and 2-6 in December. The favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in this series recently. The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four in this series. The Sun Devils are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five against the Cardinal in Tempe.

When these two met earlier this season in  Stanford, the Cardinal jumped out to a huge lead and hung on at the end for the win. Arizona State  is playing much better now, especially at home where they did not lose a game. I think this game will be close and both teams should be able to score. Stanford wins in a close upset .

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  1. Might want to recheck that Sacramento St. score. It was not even close to 55-50. Sac St. only put up 7 points.

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