College Football Handicapping: Iowa St Cyclones at UConn Huskies

Iowa St Cyclones at Connecticut Huskies
Rentschler Field, East Hartford, Connecticut
Friday, September 16, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: (all odds courtesy of Bookmaker) UConn -5
Current Line: UConn -4
Opening Total: 45 1/2
Current Total: 44 1/2
Opening Money Line: UConn -175 / ISU +155
Current Money Line: UConn -175 / ISU +155

The UConn Huskies host the Iowa St Cyclones Friday night in Hartford. The Huskies are 4 point favorites.

After 2 narrow, exciting wins over in-state rivals Northern Iowa and Iowa, the Iowa St Cyclones are undefeated and now head to New England to take on the Connecticut Huskies. Iowa St is coached by Paul Rhoads. UConn is 1-1 this season after a blowout win over Fordham, and a loss at Vanderbilt last week. The Huskies are coached by Paul Pasqualoni in his first year with the program. Iowa St and Connecticut have met just one time in football with the Huskies winning on the road 37-20 in 2002.

Iowa St has been the Cardiac Cyclones this year with a 20-19 victory over Northern Iowa and a 44-41 triple overtime thriller over rival Iowa to claim the CyHawk Trophy for the first time since 2007. They beat the college football betting line in the upset. Down 10-0 early, Iowa St overcame 3 lost fumbles and 11 penalties to win the game.  The Cyclones had a balanced attack with 473 total yards including 279 passing yards and 194 rushing yards against Iowa. Quarterback Steele Jantz was 25/37 passing for 279 yards, and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions, and he was also the team’s second leading rusher with 16 carries for 42 yards. Jantz has thrown for 466 yards, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for the season along with 36 carries for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Sophomore running back Shontrelle Johnson  had 18 carries for 108 yards and 3 catches for 27 yards. He has 27 carries for 135 yards, and 4 catches for 29 yards on the season.  James White had 13 carries for 35 yards and 2 overtime touchdown runs including the game winner. He had 3 catches for 5 yards. Junior receiver Aaron Horne had 4 catches for 94 yards. Horne has 11 catches for 163 yards on the season. Darius Reynolds had 6 catches for 85 yards and 2 scores. Darius Darks and Josh Lenz also had touchdown catches. Grant Mahoney and Zach Guyer split the kicking duties. Mahoney was 1/2 on field goals with a 54 yarder, and made both extra points he tried. Guyer was 0/1 on field goals and made 3 extra points.

Iowa St is averaging 400.5 yards a game in the two games and is giving up 375 yards a a game to their opponents. The Cyclones have turned the ball over 7 times in two games and only forced 2 turnovers themselves. They have also had 19 penalties in the two games. The Cyclones need to improve on those as they go on  the road for the first time this season. They are also 1 for 3 on field goals this season. 

After opening the season with a 35-3 victory over Fordham, UConn went on the road to Vanderbilt last week. College football bettors that took UConn weren’t happy as the Huskies lost as a 2.5 point underdog 24-21 to the Commodores. The Huskies were down early 14-3 before taking a 21-14 lead in the fourth quarter. Vanderbilt scored 10 unanswered points to end the game with the win. Connecticut got the ball back with about 3 minutes left to play with a chance to win or send the game into overtime. However, a false start penalty and a sack put the Huskies in 4th and long and they turned the ball over on downs. Vanderbilt ran out the clock to seal the win. Connecticut had only 193 total yards in the loss and had 4 turnovers. They had 14 first downs and went 4 for 16 on third and fourth downs.  Vanderbilt only had 259 total yards and had 3 turnovers of their own.  Connecticut has struggled to move the ball this season averaging only 313.5 yards a game, including 166 passing yards. UConn had a blocked punt and a fumble recovery for a touchdown against Vanderbilt. The offense was only able to have 2 field goal drives and scored a two point conversion on the fumble return. The Huskies have turned the ball over 5 times this season and forced 4 turnovers of their own. They have forced 8 sacks this season and allowed 6 of their own.

UConn quarterback Johnny McEntee has struggled this season going 18 for 39 for 212 yards, no touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Back-up Michael Nebrich hasn’t been much better in limited action with 4/10 passing for 65 yards and an interception. In fact the only passing touchdown in two games was by third stringer Scott McCummings who threw a 55 yard touchdown against Fordham in his only attempt of the season. Running back Lyle McCombs has 51 carries for 259 yards and 4 touchdowns this season along with 3 catches for 22 yards. Receiver Ryan Griffin has 7 catches for 144 yards and one touchdown. Kicker Dave Taggart is 6 for 6 on extra point and 2 for 2 on field goals with a long of 28 yards.

Iowa St is 1-1 against the spread this season, and the over/under is also 1-1. The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 40+ points in the previous game, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 following a straight up win, 1-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 1-10 in the last 11 as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. Connecticut is 1-1 ATS this season and both games have gone under the total. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite, but 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

Both these teams are flawed. Iowa St is 2-0 but with so many turnovers and penalties they are lucky to be so. Now they go on the road for the first time. UConn has problems moving the ball and has turnover problems of their own. This could be a letdown game for the Cyclones after such an emotional win over their arch rivals and a home game against Texas coming up next.

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