College Football Big 12 Betting Picks: #18 Texas Longhorns at #6 Kansas St Wildcats

#18 Texas Longhorns at #6 Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday, December 1, 2012, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Bill Snyder Stadium – Manhattan, Kansas
Opening Line: Kansas St -10 1/2
Current Line: Kansas St -11 1/2
Opening Total: 63 1/2
Current Total: 63 1/2
Opening Money Line: Kansas St -415 / Texas +345
Current Money Line: Kansas St -425 / Texas +355

Kansas St can clinch the Big 12 title with a win Saturday against Texas. The Wildcats are 11.5 point favorites at home.

Two weeks ago, Kansas St was undefeated and ranked #1 in the BCS standings. The Wildcats had dreams of playing in the BCS Championship game. Those dreams came to a screeching halt as the Wildcats were destroyed at Baylor 52-24. Kansas St can still win the Big 12 title and a trip to the Fiesta Bowl with a win Saturday at home against Texas or an Oklahoma loss. It would be the third conference championship in history for Kansas St. The Wildcats also won titles in 1934 and 2003. A Wildcat loss to #18 Texas coupled with an Oklahoma win at TCU would give the Big 12 title to Oklahoma. Texas would have had a chance at the conference title if not for a 20-13 upset at home last week against TCU.

This is the 13th meeting between Texas and Kansas St. The Wildcats lead the series 7-5, including a 17-13 win last year in Austin. It was the fourth straight win in the series for Kansas St.

Texas is 8-3 this season overall and 5-3 in the Big 12 under coach Mack Brown. Texas has losses at home to West Virginia 48-45 and in Dallas against Oklahoma 63-21 and the TCU loss last week.. Texas has home wins over Wyoming 37-17, New Mexico 45-0, Baylor 56-50, and Iowa St 33-7, along with road wins at Ole Miss 66-31, Oklahoma St 41-36, Kansas 21-17, and Texas Tech 31-22.  The Longhorns are 5-6 ATS and the total is also 5-6 this season. Texas was a 7.5 point favorite against TCU and the total was 55.

Texas is averaging 443.5 yards per game on offense including 256.8 passing yards and 186.7 rushing yards. The Longhorns are outscoring teams 37-28 this season. Texas is +5 in turnovers with 12 giveaways. The Longhorns are averaging 40.2 penalty yards per game and have allowed 10 sacks. The Longhorns are 88/170 on third and fourth down conversions and 47/55 scoring in the red zone with 44 touchdowns. On defense, Texas is allowing 417.7 yards per game including 216.2 passing yards and 201.5 rushing yards. The Longhorns are 80th in total offense and 105th out of 124 teams in rush defense. Texas has forced 17 turnovers and 24 sacks. Longhorn opponents are 69/169 on third and fourth down conversions and 43/47 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns. Texas has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

Texas quarterback David Ash has completed 193 of 285 passes (67.7%) for 2,458 yards with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 44 carries, 119 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a rib injury. Case McCoy will start but Ash could see some action. McCoy has completed 28 of 42 passes for 408 yards with 4 touchdowns and an interception.

Running back Johnathan Gray has 130 carries, 654 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 94 yards. Joe Bergeron has 121 carries, 562 yards, and 16 touchdowns, along with  9 catches for 84  yards. Malcolm Brown has 50 carries, 276 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 55 yards. Daje Johnson and D. J. Monroe will also get some carries and receptions. Monroe has 3 rushing touchdowns and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Receiver Mike Davis has 51 catches, 891 yards and 7 touchdowns. Jaxon Shipley has 46 catches, 581 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 50 rushing yards. Marquise Goodwin has 22 catches, 272 yards and 2 touchdowns along with 11 carries, 87 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Johnson, Jeremy Hills and D.J. Grant will also get some catches. Seven Longhorns are questionable or out including 4 defensive players Saturday night.

Kansas St is 10-1 overall and  7-1 in the Big 12 under coach Bill Snyder. Kansas St has home wins over Missouri St 51-9, Miami-(FL) 52-13, North Texas 35-21, Kansas 56-16, Texas Tech 55-24 and Oklahoma St 44-30 along with road wins at Oklahoma 24-19, Iowa St 27-21, at West Virginia 55-14 and last week at TCU 23-10. The Wildcats are 8-2-1 ATS and the total is 6-4. Kansas St was a 12 point favorite against Baylor and the total was 74.5.

Kansas St is averaging 415.7 yards per game, including 214.6 passing yards and 201.1 rushing yards per game. The Wildcats are outscoring teams 41-21 this season. K-State is in the top 30 nationally in rushing and scoring offense. The Wildcats are +19 in turnovers for the season with 9 turnovers. Kansas St is 70/139 on third and fourth down conversions, and 54/62 scoring in the red zone with 38 touchdowns. The Wildcats have only allowed 12 sacks this season, which is remarkable when you consider how much quarterback Collin Klein runs with the ball. Kansas St is allowing 370 yards per game on defense including 249.9 passing yards and 121.1 rushing yards. Kansas St has struggled to stop the pass, but they are in the top 25 nationally against the run and in points allowed. Wildcat opponents are 71/170 on third and fourth down conversions, and 30/39 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. K-State has 27 sacks this season and has forced 28 turnovers.The Wildcats have 6 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

Kansas St quarterback Collin Klein has completed 172 of 258 passes (66.7%) for 2,306 yards with 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He is also the second leading rusher with 171 carries, 787 yards and 20 touchdowns. He was widely considered to be the Heisman Trophy frontrunner until around 2 weeks ago, but Oregon running back Kenjon Barner and Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel are gaining on him among voters.

Running back John Hubert has 158 carries, 826 yards, and 12 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 82 yards. Angelo Pease has 50 carries, for 278 yards, and a receiving touchdown. Back-up quarterback Daniel Sams has 32 carries, 235 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Chris Harper has 47 catches, 727 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Tyler Lockett has 38 catches, 579 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns. Tramaine Thompson has 34 catches, 491 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He also has a punt return for a touchdown.  Travis Tannahill has 21 catches, 250 yards and a touchdown.

Texas is 4-1 ATS in road games versus teams with winning home records, and after allowing 170 passing yards or less, 2-5 in Big 12 games, overall, and on fieldturf, and 5-15-1 after rushing for 100 yards or less. The underdog has covered the last 7 in this series and the road team is 5-2 ATS.

Kansas St is 6-0-1 ATS against teams with winning records, 5-1 in home games, 5-1-1 after allowing 450 yards or more, 13-3 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 4-1 on fieldturf, 17-5-1 overall, 23-7-1 in Big 12 games, 8-3 after a straight up loss, 9-4 after failing to cover, 3-8 at home against teams with winning road records, 1-5 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, and 1-8-1 in December. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in the last five against Texas.

Normally, you would say Kansas St might be in for a letdown after their hopes of a National Championship were dashed two weeks ago. However, the lure of a potential third conference championship in the school’s history should be enough to prevent that from happening. Texas can struggle to score sometimes, and could do so so again with McCoy starting. I like Kansas St to win at home, and clinch a berth in the Fiesta Bowl.

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