College Football Betting Preview: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs #5 Baylor Bears

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs #5 Baylor Bears
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Saturday, October 3, 2015, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN2
Opening Line: Baylor -13 1/2
Current Line: Baylor -17 1/2
Opening Total: 85 1/2
Current Total: 88 1/2
Opening Money Line: Baylor -600 / Texas Tech +450
Current Money Line: Baylor -900 / Texas Tech +600

Baylor is a significant favorite against Texas Tech Saturday.
Baylor is a significant favorite against Texas Tech Saturday.

The 3-0 Baylor Bears open Big 12 play Saturday in Arlington, Texas against the 3-1 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Vegas expects this game to be a high scoring shootout because at one point the total creeped over 90 points, the highest ever total for a college football game.

The series is tied between Baylor and Texas Tech 36-36-1 but Baylor is 4-2 in neutral site games. Baylor has won the last four games in this series including 48-46 last year in Arlington.

Texas Tech is coached Kliff Kingsbury. The Red Raiders have home wins over Sam Houston State 59-45 and UTEP 69-20, plus a road win at Arkansas 35-24. Texas Tech opened Big 12 play last week by hosting TCU. The game was a wild affair that featured 13 ties or lead changes. The two teams combined for almost 1,400 yards and 70 first downs. TCU scored the game winning touchdown on a four yard touchdown pass from quarterback Trevone Boykin on a deflected ball to running back Aaron Green. Texas Tech tried a Hail Mary from their own 30 but it was incomplete. However, TCU was called for roughing the passer and Texas Tech had one more chance. After several laterals Texas tech got all the way to the TCU 10 before getting forced out of bounds to make the final 55-52 Horned Frogs. TCU was a 5 point favorite and the total was 83.5. Texas Tech is 3-0-1 ATS and the total is 3-1 this season.

Baylor is coached by Art Briles. The Bears have a road win at SMU 56-31 and home wins over Lamar 66-31 and last week against Rice 70-17. Baylor led 14-10 in the firth quarter but the Bears would score 28 straight points to take a 42-10 lead into halftime. After a Rice touchdown made it 42-17. Baylor would score another 28 straight points. The Bears had 793 total yards and Rice had 246 yards. Baylor easily covered the 33 point spread and almost went the 73 point total by themselves. The Bears are 1-1 ATS and the total is 3-0 this season. Strangely, there wasn’t a line posted on the Lamar game but there was a total.

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Texas Tech is outscoring teams 54-36 this season. The Red Raiders are #4 in scoring but #108 in points allowed nationally out of 128 teams. Texas Tech averages 595 yards per game on offense, including 397 passing and 197 rushing. The Red Raiders are #4  in both total and passing offense. On defense, Texas Tech is allowing 556 total yards including 302 passing and 255 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #116 or worse in all three categories. Tech has forced 8 turnovers and has 3 of their own. The Red Raiders average 43 penalty yards per game and opponents average 70 per game. Texas Tech is 31/57 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 35/67. The Red Raiders have forced 3 sacks and have allowed one this season. Texas Tech is 18/19 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns and opponents are 14/18 with 12 touchdowns.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 63.4% of his passes for 1,421 yards with 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, plus 29 carries for 165 yards and 5 touchdowns. Mahomes suffered a knee injury in the first quarter last weekbut stayed in the game. He is a game time decision against Baylor.  Back-up Davis Webb has two rushing touchdowns, and has thrown for 96 yards. Webb has thrown for over 5,300 yards with 44 touchdowns and 22 interceptions in his three year career at Texas Tech and will start if Mahomes can’t go.

Running back DeAndre Washington has 58 carries for 475 yards and 5 touchdowns along with 9 catches for 70 yards. Justin Stockton has 24 carries for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 115 yards and a touchdowns. Receiver Jakeem Grant has 29 catches for 413 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also has a rushing touchdown and threw a touchdown pass. Devin Lauderdale has 13 catches for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Reginald Davis has 13 catches for 248  yards and 248 touchdowns.  Ian Sadler has 15 catches for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a knee injury.

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Baylor is outscoring teams 64-23 this season. The Bears lead the nation in scoring. Baylor is averaging 767 yards per game on offense including 387 passing and 380 rushing yards. The Bears lead the nation in total and rushing offense, and #6 in passing. Baylor is allowing 318 total yards per game on defense including 162 passing and 157 rushing yards. The Bears are #32 or better in total and pass defense. Baylor has forced 6 turnovers and has 6 of their own. The Bears average 114 penalty yards per game and opponents average 76. Baylor is 21/41 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 16/43. The Bears have forced 9 sacks and allowed 4 this season.  Baylor is 13/15 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns and opponents are 8/10 with 6 touchdowns.

Quarterback Seth Russell has completed 62.5% of his passes for 995 yards with 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and has rushed for 91 yards on 10 carries with a touchdown. Back-up Jarrett Stidham has thrown for 167 yards with 2 touchdowns, and also has a rushing touchdown.

Running back Shock Linwood has 42 catches for 363 yards and 4 touchdowns. Terence Williams has 41 carries for 305 yards and a touchdown. Johnny Jefferson has 23 carries for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns. Devin Chafin has 19 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Receiver Corey Coleman has 17 catches for 460 yards and 8 touchdowns. Jay Lee has 14 catches for 255 yards and 4 touchdowns. K.D. Cannon has 6 catches for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Baylor is 7-1 ATS after gaining 450 total yards or more, 6-1 after allowing 275 total yards or less, 24-6 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 19-6-1 after scoring 40 points or more, 18-6 after rushing for more than 200 yards, 14-5-1 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 24-9 after allowing 20 points or less, 13-5 against teams with winning records, 20-8 on fieldturf, 27-11 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 19-8-1 after a straight up win, 23-10-1 overall, 20-9-1 in Big 12 games, 17-8-1 after passing for 280 yards or more, and 1-3-1 after a cover. The favorite and home team are both 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games in this series. The Bears are 5-2 ATS in this series recently.

Texas Tech is 6-0-1 ATS overall, 5-0-1 on fieldturf and after passing for 280 yards or more, 4-0 ATS in Big 12 games and after a cover. 9-1-1 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 4-1 after a straight up loss, against teams with winning records, after gaining more than 450 total yards, and after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 3-1-1 after allowing and scoring more than 40 points, 8-3 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 4-10 in neutral site games, and 2-6 after allowing 450 total yards or more. The last 5 games in this series have gone over the total.

The schedule makers did Texas Tech no favors by scheduling TCU and Baylor back to back. Kingsbury has said Mahomes will not play if he isn’t his normal mobile self. Webb is a solid back-up but he sometimes makes too many mistakes. I think Baylor wins this game by pulling away late.

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