Oregon Ducks vs LSU Tigers
Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Saturday, September 3, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: Oregon -2 1/2
Current Line: Oregon -3 1/2
Opening Total: 55 1/2
Current Total: 54 1/2
Opening  Money Line: Oregon -170 / LSU +150
Current Money Line: Oregon -165 / LSU +145

For the first time since 1984 two top five ranked teams are meeting in the opening weekend of the college football season. Number 3 Oregon takes on Number 4 LSU in the Cowboys Classic in Arlington, Texas. The loser could be eliminated from contention for the BCS Championship Game before Labor Day.

The game has been overshadowed by off the field incidents involving both teams. LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson and linebacker Josh Johns are both suspended indefinitely after allegedly getting into a bar fight a few weeks ago. (A caller to LSU coach Les Miles’ radio show snarkily asked if Jefferson was going to move to punter after allegations surfaced that the quarterback kicked a man in the head during the brawl.) For Oregon, quarterback Darron Thomas and All-American cornerback Cliff Harris were stopped by  police after radar guns showed Harris was driving 118 miles an hour. The police officer allegedly smelled marijuana but Thomas was not charged. Thomas will play Saturday, but Harris was suspended after he was charged with reckless driving and driving with a suspended license.

Oregon finished the regular season undefeated and lost on a field goal on the last play of the game 22-19 to Auburn in the BCS Championship Game under coach Chip Kelly. LSU was 11-2 last year under Miles and ended the season with a 41-24 victory over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl, also in Cowboys Stadium where the Oregon game will be played. LSU leads the all time series 2-1 but the teams haven’t played since 1977. All three games were played in Baton Rouge.

Oregon had the most prolific offense in the country last year averaging 531 yards and 47 points a game. They return 7 starters from that unit. Quarterback Thomas completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,881 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He was also the team’s third leading rusher with 93 carries, 486 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Running back LaMichael James was a finalist for the Heisman last year and would have been a first round NFL pick had he chose to come out last year. However, he returned and is a consensus pre-season All-American. James had 294 carries, 1,731 yards, and 21 touchdowns last year. He also had 17 catches, 208 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Junior Kenjon Barner also returns. He had 91 carries, 551 yards, and 6 touchdowns last year. He also had 13 catches and 2 touchdowns. Oregon’s top two receivers were drafted by NFL teams in April. David Paulsen, Lavasier Tuinei, and Josh Huff will be the top three receivers along with the running backs. Huff is out indefinitely with a foot injury.

Oregon’s defense gave 346 yards and 19 points a game last year. They return 6 starters from that unit, including Harris who is suspended. Oregon forced 37 turnovers last year, which was #2 in the country and a school record. The defense will be led by junior safety John Boyett, senior linebacker Josh Kaddu and senior DE Terrell Turner.

LSU struggled at times on offense last year averaging only 341.3 yards and 30 points a game. Jarrett Lee will be the quarterback until Jefferson returns from his suspension, if he does. Lee was 54 for 89 for 573 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception last year. He is a senior and has the experience to run the offense. Jefferson wasn’t exactly Joe Montana last year, and LSU depended more on their running game and a stingy defense than they did on the quarterback play. Running back Spencer Ware is listed on top of the depth chart to replace Stevan Ridley now with the Patriots. Alfred Blue and Michael Ford will also get plenty of carries for the Tigers. Junior Reuben Randle is the top returning receiver with 33 catches, 544 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Russell Shepherd and Deangelo Peterson will also get more catches this year.

LSU had one of the top defenses in the country last season giving up 307 yards and 18 points a game. They return 9 starters from that unit and should still be elite. Linebacker Ryan Baker, CB Morris Claibourne, CB Tyrann Mathieu, defensive ends Barkavious Mingo, and Sam Montongomery are all on the pre-season watch lists for the awards at their respective positions.

Oregon is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 September games. LSU is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. The under is 5-1 in Oregon’s last 6 neutral site games. The over is 4-1 in LSU’s last 5 against Pac 12 teams.

This should be a great game between two teams that have legitimate chances of winning the national title, suspensions or not. September games are rarely bigger than this. I think Oregon wins a close game, and might not even cover the 3.5 point spread.

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