College Football Betting Preview: Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise St Broncos

Nevada Wolf Pack at #4 Boise St Broncos
Bronco Stadium – Boise, Idaho
Saturday, October 1, 2011, 2:30 pm Eastern, TV: Versus
Opening Line: Boise St -28
Current Line: Boise St -27
Opening Total: 60
Current Total: 60
Opening Money Line: Boise St -7000 / Nevada +3000
Current Money Line: Boise St -5200 / Nevada +2550

Boise State Georgia Betting
Boise St is a 27 point favorite at home against Nevada. Last year Nevada handed Boise St their only loss of the season.

These two once and future conference rivals last met the day after Thanksgiving last season when they were both in the WAC. Boise St was undefeated and traveled south to Reno. The Broncos looked to be on the verge of an undefeated season and a trip to a lucrative BCS game. However, normally reliable kicker Kyle Brotzman missed two short field goals, one at the end of regulation and one in overtime. Nevada pulled off the upset 34-31. Boise St is now in the Mountain West, and will be joined by Nevada next season. Boise is ranked  #4 in both polls and Nevada is rebuilding after losing quarterback Colin Kaepernick to the NFL along with other talented players. The Broncos look for revenge and to dole out some punishment on the now familiar Blue Turf. Boise leads the overall series between the two schools 24-13. Boise is 15-2 all time at home versus Nevada.

Nevada concludes a brutal four game road trip to start the season with this game. Nevada, coached by Chris Ault, is 1-2 this season with a win over San Jose St 17-14, and losses at Oregon 69-20 and last week at Texas Tech 35-34. Boise St, coached by Chris Petersen is 3-0 with wins against Georgia 35-21 in Atlanta, at Toledo 40-15, and last week at home against Tulsa 41-21.

Nevada lead 28-21 at the end of the third quarter last week at Texas Tech, but Texas Tech scored a touchdown with 36 seconds left to win 35-34. Nevada could only manage two fourth quarter field goals which allowed the Red Raiders to come back. Both field goals were under 25 yards.  Nevada had 562 total yards including 312 rushing yards in the loss. Quarterback Tyler Lantrip threw for 191 yards and a touchdown. Running back  Mike Ball had 139 rushing yards. Back-up quarterback Cody Fajardo had 139 rushing yards and 2 scores, and threw a touchdown pass as well. Nevada gave up 441 total yards including 219 rushing yards. Neither team turned the ball over, but there were 13 combined penalties in the game.

Nevada is averaging 483.7 yards and 23.7 points a game. The Wolf Pack is seventh in the country in rushing with 285.3 yards a game. Nevada has 7 turnovers and has allowed two sacks. The Wolf Pack are 24/52 on third and fourth down conversions, and 11/15 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns. Nevada is allowing 444.7 yards and 39.3 points a game. Nevada is allowing 209.7 rushing yards. All rank near the bottom of the country.  They have forced 4 turnovers and 4 sacks. Nevada opponents are 23/50 on third and fourth down conversions, 9/12 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns.

Lantrip is 43/74 passing for 522 yards for two touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 31 carries for 122 yards. Fajardo has 270 combine passing and rushing yards with 4 touchdowns and an interception.  Running back Ball has 70 carries for 362 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also has 2 catches for 9 yards and a touchdown. Stefphon Jefferson has 22 carries for 137 yards and one touchdown. Receiver Rishard Matthews has 20 catches for 284 yards and a touchdown. Kicker Anthony Martinez is 8/9 on extra points and 3/5 on field goals with a long of 25 yards.

Boise St was up 34-7 last week at the end of the third quarter against Tulsa. Actually, Tulsa didn’t even score until late in the third quarter. Tulsa scored 2 late touchdowns to cover the 27.5 point spread 41-21. That was really the only positive for the Golden Hurricane, in a game where they only had 291 total yards, 14 first downs and 4 turnovers. Boise had 458 total yards including 327 passing yards. Bronco quarterback Kellen Moore threw 4 touchdowns in the rout. Receiver Tyler Shoemaker had 5 catches for 102 yards and 2 scores for the Broncos.

Boise St is averaging 486 total yards and 38.7 points a game, both are ranked in the top 20 in the country. The Broncos throw for 351 yards a game with is eighth best in the nation. The Broncos have three turnovers and have allowed one sack this year. Boise is 22/46 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/16 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. The Broncos are allowing 337.7 yards and 19 points a game. Teams are rushing for 130 yards a game against the Broncos. Boise has forced 7 turnovers and 8 sacks so far this season. Bronco opponents are 13/42 on third and fourth down conversions, and 5/7 scoring in the red zone with 4 touchdowns.

Moore is 83/105 passing for 995 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions this year. Running back Doug Martin has 64 carries, for 202 yards, and 2 touchdown runs, along with 10 catches, 154 yards, and a touchdown. D.J. Harper has 30 carries, 122 yards, and a touchdown, along with 3 catches for 13 yards. Mitch Burrows has 16 catches, 182 yards and a touchdown. Matt Miller has 15 catches, 179 yards, and a touchdown. Shoemaker has 11 catches, for 177 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Tight end Kyle Efaw has 9 catches, 87 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Dan Goodale is 11/13 on extra points, and Michael Frisina is 3/4 on extra points. Oddly, Boise St hasn’t attempted a field goal yet in three games this season. The Broncos are banged up on both sides of the line with 2 offensive linemen and 4 defensive linemen listed as questionable, doubtful, or out.

Boise St is 2-1 ATS this season and 2 of the 3 games have gone under the total. Nevada is 1-2 ATS this season and 2 of the 3 games have gone over the total. Nevada has covered the last two times against Boise St. Boise St is 20-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. Nevada is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as an underdog, 1-6 ATS in the last 7 following a straight up loss, and 0-5 in their last 5 October games. Boise St is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 October games, 4-1 ATS in the last 5 after a game they failed to cover, 24-11-1 in the last 36 non conference games, and 19-9-1 in their last 29 games against WAC teams.

Boise should roll in this game but Nevada can control the clock with their running game especially against a banged up Bronco D-line. I could see another back door cover if Boise removes their starters. There should be a ton of scoring, and over 60 points looks like a good play as well.

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