College Football Betting Preview: #8 Baylor Bears at Buffalo Bulls

#8 Baylor Bears at Buffalo Bulls
UB Stadium – Buffalo, New York

Friday, September 12, 2014, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Baylor -27
Current Line: Baylor -35
Opening Total: 70
Current Total: 69 1/2
Opening Money Line: Baylor -22600 / Buffalo +11400
Current Money Line: Baylor -22600 / Buffalo +11400

Baylor is a 35 point favorite at Buffalo Friday night.
Baylor is a 35 point favorite at Buffalo Friday night.

The Baylor Bears and Buffalo Bulls meet Friday night in Buffalo. This is the fourth meeting ever between the teams, and Baylor has won all 3 previous meetings. The Bears destroyed the Bulls 70-13 last year in Waco.

Baylor is 2-0 this season under coach Art Briles. The Bears have not been tested in easy wins over SMU 45-0 and Northwestern State 70-6. Baylor gave up only two field goals to Northwestern State. The Bears are  2-0 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

Buffalo is 1-1 under head coach Jeff Quinn. The Bulls have a home win over Duquesne 38-28 and a road loss at Army last week 47-39. Buffalo is 0-2 ATS and both games have gone over the total.

Baylor is outscoring teams 58-3 this season. The Bears are averaging 647 total yards per game including 384 passing yards and 263 rushing yards. The Bears are #20 or better nationally in all offensive categories. ON defense, Baylor is allowing 135 yards per game on defense including 108 passing yards and 27 rushing yards per game. The Bears are #10 or better nationally in all defensive categories. Baylor has 4 turnovers and has forced 4 as well this season. The Bears are averaging 94 penalty yards per game and opponents average 38 yards per game. Baylor is 27/40 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 7/38. The Bears have forced 12 sacks and haven’t allowed one. Baylor is 11/14 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns, and opponents are 2/2 with 2 field goals.

Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty broke two bones in his lower back against SMU and missed the second half of that game and the entire Northwestern State game. Petty is listed as probable Friday night. He threw for 161 yards with 2 touchdowns in the first half against SMU and also rushed for 21 yards and a touchdowns. Seth Russell was good in relief of Petty. Russell threw for 562 yards with 6 touchdowns and an interception and also rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown. Running back Johnny Jefferson has 32 carries for 164 yards and a touchdown. Silas Nacita has 20 carries for 124 yards and 3 touchdowns. Shock Linwood has 27 carries for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 2 catches for 53 yards. Receiver KD Cannon has 8 catches for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns. Davion Hall has 11 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown. Jay Lee has 10 catches for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns. Four other Bear receivers are listed as doubtful or out.

Buffalo is outscoring teams 39-38 this season. The Bulls are averaging 513 yards per game on offense including 350 passing and 164 rushing yards. On defense, Buffalo is allowing 420 yards per game including 224 passing and 196 rushing  yards per game. The Bulls have 5 turnovers and have forced 3 this season. Buffalo is averaging 48 penalty yards per game and opponents average 75. The Bulls are 17/34 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 16/32. Buffalo has forced 5 sacks and allowed 2 this season. The Bulls are 9/12 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns, and opponents are 7/8 with 7 touchdowns.

Buffalo quarterback Joe Licata has completed 69.8% of his passes for 699 yards with 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Running back Anthone Taylor has 46 carries for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 4 catches for 36 yards. Receiver Ron Willoughby has 15 catches for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns. Marcus McGill has 11 catches for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Devin Campbell also has two touchdown catches.

Baylor is  6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game, 4-0 in their last 4 games in September, 6-1 in their last 7 non-conference games, 5-1 in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game, 10-2 in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, 13-3  in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, 12-3  in their last 15 games following a ATS win,  22-6 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game, 18-5  in their last 23 games following a S.U. win, 20-6 in their last 26 games on fieldturf, 22-7 in their last 29 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, 12-4  in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, 24-8 in their last 32 games overall, 25-9 in their last 34 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game and 19-7 in their last 26 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Buffalo is 7-3 in their last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game, 2-5  in their last 7 games in September, 1-3-1 in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 2-6 in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, 5-16 vs. a team with a winning record, 1-4 in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game, 1-4 in their last 5 games on fieldturf, 1-5 in their last 6 non-conference games, 1-5-1 in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, 0-5-1 in their last 6 Friday games and 0-4 in their last 4 games overall.

Buffalo has been scoring 39 points a game so far but haven’t been good on defense. That isn’t a good sign when you are facing a team as explosive on offense as Baylor is. The Bears should win this game easily but a 35 point spread is always open to  a back door cover.

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