College Football Betting Preview: #1Kansas St Wildcats at Baylor Bears

#1 Kansas St Wildcats at Baylor Bears
Saturday, November 17, 2012, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Floyd Casey Stadium – Waco, Texas
Opening Line: Kansas St -11
Current Line: Kansas St -12 1/2
Opening Total: 74
Current Total:  74
Opening Money Line: Kansas St -500 / Baylor +400
Current Money Line: Kansas St -450 / Baylor +370

Kansas St looks to remain undefeated as they travel to Waco to take on Baylor in Big 12 action Saturday night.

 The Kansas St Wildcats are #1 in the current BCS Standings. The 10-0 Wildcats are locked in a tight battle with fellow undefeated teams Oregon and Notre Dame. Two of those teams will likely play in the BCS Championship team if they stay undefeated.

The Wildcats have two games left. Kansas St travels to 4-5 Baylor Saturday, and then hosts Texas to close the season December 1. Baylor needs to win 2 of their last 3 games in order to become bowl eligible.

This is the tenth meeting between the schools. Kansas St leads the series 7-2 and is 3-2 in Waco. Kansas St won last year in Manhattan 36-35, but hasn’t won in Waco since 2002.

Kansas St is 7-0 in the Big 12 under coach Bill Snyder. The Wildcats are off to their best start since 1999 and can clinch the Big 12 title with a win. Of course, Kansas St has bigger fish to fry.  Kansas St has home wins over Missouri St 51-9, Miami-(FL) 52-13, North Texas 35-21, Kansas 56-16, Texas Tech 55-24 and Oklahoma St 44-30 along with road wins at Oklahoma 24-19, Iowa St 27-21, at West Virginia 55-14 and last week at TCU 23-10. The Wildcats are 8-1-1 ATS and the total is 5-4. Kansas St was a 6.5 point favorite against TCU and the total was 57.

Kansas St is averaging 421.1 yards per game, including 207.5 passing yards and 213.6 rushing yards per game. The Wildcats are outscoring teams 42-18 this season. K-State is in the top 20 nationally in rushing and scoring offense. The Wildcats are +20 in turnovers for the season with 6 turnovers. Kansas St is 59/115 on third and fourth down conversions, and 50/56 scoring in the red zone with 35 touchdowns. The Wildcats have only allowed 10 sacks this season, which is remarkable when you consider how much quarterback Collin Klein runs with the ball. Kansas St is allowing 350.1 yards per game on defense including 251.1 passing yards and 99 rushing yards. Kansas St has struggled to stop the pass, but they are in the top 15 nationally against the run and in points allowed. Wildcat opponents are 60/154 on third and fourth down conversions, and 26/35 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. K-State has 27 sacks this season and has forced 26 turnovers.The Wildcats have 6 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

Kansas St quarterback Collin Klein has completed 145 of 208 passes (69.7%) for 2,020 yards with 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He is also the second leading rusher with 154 carries, 748 yards and 19 touchdowns. He is widely considered to be the Heisman Trophy frontrunner, but Oregon running back Kenjon Barner is gaining on him among voters. Running back John Hubert has 148 carries, 783 yards, and 12 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 71 yards. Angelo Pease has 48 carries, for 275 yards, and a receiving touchdown. Back-up quarterback Daniel Sams has 32 carries, 235 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Tyler Lockett has 36 catches and 556 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Chris Harper has 36 catches, 604 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Tramaine Thompson has 30 catches, 436 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He also has a punt return for a touchdown.  Travis Tannahill has 15 catches, 195 yards and a touchdown.

Baylor is 1-5 in the Big 12 under coach Art Briles. The Bears have lost 5 of the last 6 after starting off 3-0. Baylor has home wins over SMU 59-24, Sam Houston St 48-23, and Kansas 41-14 along with a road win at Louisiana-Monroe 47-42. Baylor has a home loss to TCU 49-21, along with road losses at  West Virginia 70-63, Texas 56-50, Iowa St 35-21, and last week at Oklahoma 42-34. Baylor is 5-4 ATS and the total is 6-2 this season. The Bears were 21 point underdogs at Oklahoma and the total was 74.5.

Baylor is averaging 564 yards per game on offense, including 367.7 passing yards and 196.3 rushing yards. The Bears are #2 in total offense and passing nationally. Baylor is outscoring teams 43-39 this season. The Bears are #7 in scoring nationally. Baylor is -6 in turnovers with 20 giveaways. The Bears are averaging 63 penalty yards per game and have allowed 13 sacks. Baylor is 55/119 on third and fourth down conversions, and 35/42 scoring in the red zone with 27 touchdowns. While the Baylor offense is among the best in the country, the defense is among the worst. The Bears are giving up 519.8 yards per game including 321.1 passing yards and 198.7 rushing yards. Baylor is 97th or worse in all defensive categories including dead last out of 124 teams in total offense. The Bears have forced 10 sacks and 14 turnovers this season. Baylor opponents are 83/152 on third and fourth down conversions and 29/34 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns.

Baylor quarterback Nick Florence has completed 211 of 343 passes (61.5%) for 3,191 yards with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He also has 80 carries, 362 yards and 6 touchdowns. Running back Glasco Martin has 100 carries, 528 yards and 6 touchdowns. Jarred Salubi has 106 carries, 440 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 44 yards. Lache Seastrunk has 61 carries, 375 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 7 catches, 106 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Terrance Williams has 77 catches, 1,431 yards and 10 touchdowns. Tevin Reese has 37 catches, 682 yards and 6 touchdowns. Lanear Sampson has 41 catches, 505 yards and 5 touchdowns. Levi Norwood has 25 catches for 308 yards , along with a rushing touchdown. Five defensive players from an already terrible unit are listed as questionable or out.

Kansas St is 5-0 ATS in November, 4-0 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 3-0-1 in road games, 7-1 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 17-4-1 overall, 12-3-1 after a cover, 4-1 after gaining less than 275 yards, 8-2-1 after allowing less than 20 points, 23-6-1 in Big 12 games, 16-5-1 after a straight up win, 16-5 on fieldturf, 35-17 against teams with losing records, and 49-24-2 after passing for 170 yards or less. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 against Baylor.

Baylor is 4-0 ATS in November, 10-2 at home, 4-1 at home against teams with winning road records, 7-2 in Big 12 games, and on fieldturf, 5-2 after allowing more than 40 points, 9-4 overall, 19-40 after a cover, and 5-11 after rushing for more than 200 yards. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series.

Baylor can score, but they can’t stop anybody. I think they hang around for a while in a shootout, but at the Kansas St wears them down with their running game. The Wildcats stay undefeated.

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