College Football Betting Preview: #12 Ole Miss Rebels at #22 Arkansas Razorbacks

#12 Ole Miss Rebels at #22 Arkansas Razorbacks
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium – Fayetteville, Arkansas
Saturday, October 15, 2016, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Ole Miss -7
Current Line: Ole Miss -7 1/2
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 66 1/2
Opening Money Line: Ole Miss -270 / Arkansas +230
Current Money Line: Ole Miss -300 / Arkansas +250

Arkansas and Ole Miss meet in a key SEC game Saturday.
Arkansas and Ole Miss meet in a key SEC game Saturday.

The 3-2 Ole Miss Rebels travel to the 4-2 Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday in a key SEC contest between ranked teams. The Rebels are 1-1 in the SEC West and Arkansas is 0-2 in conference. Both teams are chasing Texas A&M who is 4-0 and Alabama who is 3-0.

Arkansas leads the series 33-28-1 including 10-2 in Fayetteville. Last year, in Oxford the Razorbacks won a wild 53-52 game in overtime after a gutsy two point conversion in overtime.

Ole Miss is coached by Hugh Freeze. The Rebels have losses to Florida State 45-34 in Orlando and at home to Alabama 48-43 despite leading each game by at least 21 points in the first half. The Rebels have home wins over Wofford 38-13, Georgia 45-14 and Memphis 48-28 two weeks ago. Ole Miss led 24-7 against Memphis at halftime and never looked back. The Rebels were 15.5 point favorites in that game and the total was 71. Ole Miss is 3-2 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season.

Arkansas is coached by Bret Bielema. The Razorbacks have home wins over Louisiana Tech 21-20 and Texas State 42-3, plus a road win at TCU 41-38 in overtime, and Alcorn State 52-10 in Little Rock. The Razorbacks lost to Texas A&M 45-24 in Arlington. Last week, Arkansas lost at home 49-30 to Alabama. Despite throwing for over 400 yards against the vaunted Alabama defense, the Razorbacks were never in the game. Arkansas is 2-4 ATS and the total is 3-3 this season. The Razorbacks were 14.5 point underdogs against Alabama and the total was 48.5.

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Ole Miss is outscoring opponents 42-30 this season. The Rebels are #14 in scoring nationally. The Rebels average 491 yards per game on offense including 333 passing and 158 rushing yards. Mississippi is in the top 25 nationally in total and passing offense. On defense, Ole Miss is allowing 449 yards per game including 234 passing and 215 rushing yards. The Rebels are #103 in total defense and #105 against the rush. Mississippi is -3 in turnovers and has forced 8 this season. The Rebels average 51 penalty yards per game and opponents average 66 per game. Ole Miss is 28/62 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 35/82. The Rebels have forced 9 sacks and allowed 10 this season. Ole Miss is 23/25 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns and opponents are 20/22 with 14 touchdowns.

Quarterback Chad Kelly has thrown for 1.596 yards with 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and has rushed for 124 yards on 38 carries and a touchdown. There was some talk that he could face a suspension after running on the field during a high school game his brother was playing in but he will play against Arkansas.

Running back Akeem Judd has 56 carries for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eugene Brazley has 25 carries for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 5 catches for 33 yards and a touchdown. Jason Pellerin has 18 carries for 64 yards and 3 touchdowns. Running backs Eric Swinney and and Jordan Wilkins are both out for the season.

Nine Rebels have caught a touchdown pass this season. Tight end Evan Engram has 30 catches for 479 yards and 4 touchdowns. Receiver DaMore’ea Stringfellow has 20 catches for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns. Van Jefferson has 21 catches for 244 yards and a touchdown. A.J. Brown has 14 catches for 188 yards and 2 touchdowns. Quincy Adeboyejo has 13 catches for 150 yards and a touchdown. Receiver D.J. Metcalf is out for the season with a foot injury. He had two touchdown catches.

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Arkansas is outscoring teams 35-28 this season. The Razorbacks average 448 yards per game on defense including 272 passing and 176 rushing yards. On defense, Arkansas allows 398 yards per game on defense including 218 passing and 180 rushing yards. The Razorbacks are +1 in turnovers with 13 takeaways. Arkansas averages 48 penalty yards per game and opponents average 53 per game. The Razorbacks are 39/87 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 38/77. Arkansas has forced 13 sacks and allowed 14 this season. The Razorbacks are 26/32 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns and opponents are 16/22 with 12 touchdowns.

Quarterback Austin Allen has thrown for 1,632 yards with 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

Running back Rawleigh Williams III has 113 carries for 605 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 4 catches. Devwah Whaley has 38 carries for 241 yards and a touchdown. Kody Walker will also get some carries.

Receiver Drew Morgan has 33 catches for 344 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a back injury. Keon Hatcher has 18 catches for 320 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jared Cornelius has 19 catches for 408 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Jeremy Sprinkle has 18 catches for 194 yards and 4 touchdowns. Three defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Ole Miss is 4-0 ATS in SEC games, after a straight up win and a cover, 6-1 against teams with winning records, 6-2 overall, 5-2 after gaining more than 450 yards and on fieldturf, 12-5 in October, 2-6 against teams with winning home records, and 1-4 in road games. The under is 7-3 in this series recently including 5-1 in Arkansas.

Arkansas is 4-1 ATS after gaining 450 yards or more, 14-6 against teams with winning road records, 9-4 after a straight up loss and after failing to cover, 17-8 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 2-5 after a double digit home loss, after allowing more than 450 total yards, and 1-4 on fieldturf. The underdog has covered the last 5 games in this series recently. The Razorbacks are 9-3 ATS against the Rebels recently including 6-1 at home.

This should be another high scoring game as both defenses struggle and they have explosive offenses. I like the Rebels to win a close game on the road but 7.5 seems like a lot of points.

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