College Football Betting Picks Capital One Bowl: #19 Wisconsin Badgers vs #9 South Carolina Gamecocks

2014 Capital One Bowl
#19 Wisconsin Badgers vs #9 South Carolina Gamecocks

Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando, Florida
Wednesday, January 1, 2014, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: Wisconsin -2
Current Line: Wisconsin -1 1/2
Opening Total: 51
Current Total: 51
Opening Money Line: Wisconsin -120 / South Carolina +100
Current Money Line: Wisconsin -120 / South Carolina +100 

Wisconsin is a slight favorite against South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando Wednesday.
Wisconsin is a slight favorite against South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando Wednesday.

The 10-2 South Carolina Gamecocks and 9-3 Wisconsin Badgers meet for the first time ever in Wednesday’s Capital One Bowl in Orlando. Wisconsin went 6-2 in the Big Ten Leaders Division behind 8-0 Ohio State. South Carolina went 6-2 in the SEC East Division and finished second behind 7-1 Missouri.

Wisconsin is 11-13 all-time in bowl games. The Badgers have lost 5 of their last 6 bowl games including three straight Rose Bowls. Wisconsin lost to Stanford 20-14 in the Rose Bowl last year. Wisconsin appeared in the Capital One Bowl in consecutive years in 2006 and 2007 beating Arkansas and Auburn respectively. Wisconsin is making their 19th bowl appearance since 1993.

South Carolina is 6-12 all-time in bowl games. The Gamecocks have won two straight bowl games including 33-28 over Michigan in the Outback Bowl last season. South Carolina beat Nebraska 30-13 in the 2012 Capital One Bowl, in their only appearance in the game. South Carolina is playing in a sixth straight bowl game.

Wisconsin is coached by Gary Andersen in his first year. The Badgers have road losses at Arizona State 32-30, and Ohio State 31-24, along with a home loss to Penn State 31-24 to close out the regular season. The Penn State loss snapped a six game winning streak for the Badgers. Wisconsin has home wins over Massachusetts 45-0, Tennessee Tech 48-0, Purdue 41-10, Northwestern 35-6, BYU 27-17, and Indiana 51-3, along with road wins at Illinois 56-32, Iowa 28-9, and Minnesota 20-7. The Badgers are 9-2-1 ATS and the total is 4-8 this season. Wisconsin was a 25 point favorite against Penn State and the total was 49.5.

Wisconsin is outscoring teams 36-15 this season. The Badgers are #25 in scoring and #5 in points allowed out of 125 FBS teams nationally. The Badgers are averaging 486.8 yards per game including 203.8 passing and 283 rushing yards. The Badgers are #8 in rushing nationally, #90 in passing  and #18 in total offense. On defense, Wisconsin is allowing 294.4 yards per game, including 192.7 passing and  101.8 rushing yards. The Badgers are #6 in total defense, #12 in pass defense and #5 against the rush. The Badgers are +3 in turnovers with 18 takeaways. Wisconsin is 78/179 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 60/195. The Badgers are averaging 38 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 34. Wisconsin is 48/54 scoring in the red zone with 37 touchdowns and opponents are 22/30 with 11 touchdowns. The Badgers have forced 25 sacks and allowed 15. Wisconsin has two defensive touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Joel Stave has completed 61.6% of his passes for 2,414 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and he has a rushing touchdown as well.

Running back Melvin Gordon has 181 carries, 1,466 yards and 12 touchdowns along with a catch. Running back James White has 209 carries, 1,337 yards and 13 touchdowns, along with 37 catches for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns. Corey Clement has 66 carries, 515 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus a catch.

Receiver Jared Abbrederis has 73 catches, 1,051 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus 6 carries for 119 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Jacob Pedersen has 36 catches, 501 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jeff Duckworth has 10 catches for 169 yards and a touchdown. Brian Wozniak has 5 catches for 26 yards and 4 touchdowns. Receiver Marquis Mason is questionable with a knee injury. Three defensive players are also questionable.

South Carolina is coached by Steve Spurrier. The Gamecocks have road losses at Georgia 41-30 and Tennessee 23-21. South Carolina has won 5 straight games since the Tennessee loss. The Gamecocks have home wins over North Carolina 27-10, Vanderbilt 35-25, Kentucky 35-28, Mississippi State 34-16, Florida 19-14, Coastal Carolina 70-10, and Clemson 31-17 to close out the regular season, along with road wins over Central Florida 28-25, Arkansas 52-7, and Missouri 27-24 in double overtime. South Carolina is 6-6 ATS and the total is 5-7 this season. The Gamecocks were 2.5 point favorites against Clemson and the total was 62.

South Carolina is outscoring teams 34-20 this season. The Gamecocks are #14 in points allowed and #30 nationally in scoring. South Carolina is averaging 453.5 yards per game including 248.2 passing and 205.2 rushing yards. The Gamecocks are 47th or better in all three categories. On defense, South Carolina is allowing 345 total yards per game including 202.8 passing and 142.2 rushing yards. The Gamecocks are #18 in total defense, #19 against the pass, and #34 in rush defense.  South Carolina is +11 in turnovers with 26 takeaways. The Gamecocks average 43 penalty yards per game and opponents average 36. South Carolina is 94/199 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 69/172. The Gamecocks have forced 24 sacks and allowed 22 this season. South Carolina is 42/49 scoring in the red zone with 34 touchdowns and opponents are 34/41 with 25 touchdowns.

South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw has completed 61% of his passes for 2,135 yards with 21 touchdowns and an interception, along with 138 carries for 511 yards and 5 touchdowns. Back-up Dylan Thompson takes some snaps as a change of pace. He has completed 58.4% of his passes for 783 yards with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 16 carries for 27 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.

Running back Mike Davis has 194 carries for 1,134 yards with 11 touchdowns, along with 32 catches for 342 yards. Shon Carson has 60 carries for 256 yards and a touchdown, along with 5 catches for 59 yards. Brandon Wilds has 40 carries for 205 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns. Fullback Jordan Diaz is questionable with a knee injury.

Receiver Bruce Ellington has 43 catches for 635 yards and 6 touchdowns. Damiere Byrd has 33 catches for 575 yards and 4 touchdowns. Shaq Roland has 19 catches for 345 yards and 5 touchdowns. Nick Jones has 24 catches for 265 yards and 5 touchdowns. Receiver Carlton heard is questionable with a hamstring. Three defensive players are listed as questionable or out.

Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, 6-1 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 5-1 after a straight up loss, and on turf, 9-2-1 after allowing 450 total yards or more, and overall, 7-2 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, and 6-2-1 against teams with winning records.

South Carolina is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records, 4-1 overall, 8-3 in non-conference games, 9-4 after allowing less than 20 points, 2-6 after a cover, 1-4 in bowl games and 1-6 in neutral site games.

Both of these teams have strong defenses and good running games. They can both score a lot of points, but i don’t know if either can move the ball against the other defense. This should be an under game, and I like South Carolina to pull off the mild upset.

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