College Football Betting Picks: #9 Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles

#9 Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles
Alumni Stadium – Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
Friday, September 18, 2015, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Florida State -9
Current Line: Florida State -7 1/2
Opening Total: 53
Current Total: 47
Opening Money Line: Florida State -305 / Boston College +245
Current Money Line: Florida State -280 / Boston College +240

Florida State opens ACC play at Boston College Friday night.
Florida State opens ACC play at Boston College Friday night.

The Florida State Seminoles and Boston College Eagles open ACC play Friday night in Chestnut Hill. Both teams are 2-0 this season.

Florida State leads the series 9-4 against Boston College. The Seminoles have won 5 straight games against the Eagles including 20-17 last year in Tallahassee.

Florida State is coached by Jimbo Fisher. Florida State has home wins over Texas State 59-16 and South Florida 34-14 last week. The Seminoles had a sluggish start and were tied at halftime 7-7 against USF. Florida State was a 28.5 point favorite against South Florida and the total was 53.5. Florida State is 1-1 ATS and the total is 1-1.

Boston College is coached by Steve Addazio. The Eagles have wins over FCS schools Maine 24-3 and Howard 76-0 last week. Boston College was a 44 point favorite against Howard and the total was 58.5. Boston College led 41-0 at the end of the first quarter and 62-0 at halftime. Both teams agreed to play two 10 minute quarters in the second half.  The Eagles are 1-1 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

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Florida State is outscoring teams 47-15 this season. The Seminoles average 539 yards per game including 267 passing and 272 rushing yards. On defense, FSU is allowing 287 yards per game including 147 passing and 141 rushing. The Seminoles have forced 2 turnovers and have one of their own. FSU averages 42.5 penalty yards per game. The Seminoles are 12/26 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 9/36. Florida State has forced four sacks and allowed five this season. The Seminoles are 8/8 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns, and opponents are 4/5 with 3 touchdowns.

Quarterback Everett Golson has completed 64.7% of his passes for 465 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions this season. He struggled against South Florida throwing for only 163 yards and a touchdown. His passer rating was only 22.7 in that game. Back-up Sean Maguire threw for 68 yards in garbage time of the Texas State blowout with a touchdown.

While Golson struggled against USF, running back Dalvin Cook had a huge game. He rushed for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns. For the season, Cook has 49 catches for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus a catch for 13 yards. Mario Pender has 21 carries for 121 yards and a touchdown, plus 3 catches for 34 yards.

Receiver Jesus Wilson has 6 catches for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. Travis Rudolph has 10 catches for 99 yards and a touchdowns. Ja’Vonn Harrison has 4 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown.

Three offensive linemen are questionable Friday night. Five defensive players are listed as questionable or out.

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Boston College is outscoring teams 50-1.5 this season. The Eagles average 421 yards per game on offense including 146 passing and 276 rushing yards. BC is allowing 51 yards per game including 44 passing and 7 rushing yards. BC has forced 3 turnovers and has not turned the ball over this season. The Eagles average 37.5 penalty yards per game. BC is 15/26 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 3/25. The Eagles have forced 9 sacks and allowed 2 this season. BC is 10/11 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns and opponents are 1/1 with a field goal. The Eagles have a pick six this season.

Quarterback Darius Wade has completed 56.7% of his passes for 185 yards with 2 touchdowns, along with 35 rushing yards on 12 carries. Troy Flutie, nephew of BC legend Doug, has thrown for 88 yards with a touchdown, and also has a run for 20 yards. Jeff Smith has thrown for 18 yards, but also has 5 carries for 89 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Running back Tyler Rouse has 14 carries for 117 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with a catch for 17 yards.  Marcus Outlow has 13 carries for 79 yards and a touchdown, plus a catch for 22 yards. Myles Willis has 7 carries for 77 yards. Jon Hilliman has 19 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown, along with 3 catches for 33 yards.

No receiver has more than 34 yards or three catches for the Eagles. Harrison Jackson, Sherman Alston, Bobby Wolford and Drew Barksdale are the top receiving targets.

Florida State is 5-2 ATS after passing for less than 170 yards and after allowing less than 275 total yards, 17-35-2 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 4-9 against teams with winning home records, 3-7 after failing to cover, 2-6 in road games, 1-5 in September and overall, 0-5 after a straight up win and against teams with winning records, and 0-7 after allowing less than 20 points. The road team is 7-3 ATS in this series recently. Four of the last five games in Boston in this series have gone over the total.

Boston College is 4-1 ATS after scoring more than 40 points, 5-2 in ACC games, and after rushing for more than 200 yards, 9-4 against teams with winning records, 13-6 at home, and 2-6 after a straight up win of more than 20 points. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in this series recently. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS against the Seminoles recently.

Boston College has put up some ridiculous numbers so far, but against two FCS schools. We have no idea how good this team really is. Florida State struggled against South Florida especially on offense. Still, I think the Seminoles win on the road but Boston College keeps it close in a low scoring game. I think it will be a similar score to 20-17 like last year.

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