College Football Betting Picks: #19 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats

#19 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats
Bill Snyder Family Stadium – Manhattan, Kansas
Saturday, October 17, 2015, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: Oklahoma -5
Current Line: Oklahoma -4
Opening Total: 58
Current Total: 54 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -190 / Kansas State +165
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -185 / Kansas State +160

Oklahoma looks to rebound from a poor performance last week against Texas as they travel to Kansas State.
Oklahoma looks to rebound from a poor performance last week against Texas as they travel to Kansas State.

The 3-2 Kansas State Wildcats and 4-1 Oklahoma Sooners are both coming off disappointing losses last week as they meet Saturday in Manhattan. Oklahoma is 1-1 in Big 12 play and Kansas State is 0-2 this season.

Oklahoma leads the series 72-19-4 against Kansas State including 36-10-1 in Manhattan. The Wildcats won 31-30 last year in Norman. The Sooners outgained the Wildcats by almost 150 yards but the Sooners missed two short field goals and had an extra point blocked.

Oklahoma is coached by Bob Stoops. Oklahoma lost their first game of the season last week to rival Texas 24-17 in Dallas. The Sooners have home wins over Akron 41-3, Tulsa 52-38 and West Virginia 44-24, along with a road win at Tennessee 31-24 in double overtime. Against Texas, Oklahoma was a 16 point favorite and the total was 60. The Longhorns entered the game with only one win and were crushed by TCU 50-7 the previous week. The desperate Longhorns jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first half and would never trail. Oklahoma pulled to within 7 points twice in the second half but would get no closer. Texas had 368 total yards and Oklahoma had 278. The Sooners are 3-2 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season.

Kansas State is coached by Bill Snyder. The Wildcats have home wins over South Dakota 34-0 and Louisiana Tech 39-33, and a road win at UTSA 30-3. Kansas State has a road loss at Oklahoma State 36-34 and last week at home to TCU 52-45. The Wildcats were 8.5 point underdogs against TCU and the total was 61.5. TCU took a 14-7 lead in the first quarter, but Kansas State would take a 35-17 into halftime. The horned Frogs cut the lead to 35-31 going into the fourth. Kansas State expanded the lead to 42-31 early in the fourth but TCU rallied to take a 45-42. The Wildcats tied it up at 45 with 1:47 left. TCU scored the go-ahead touchdown on a 55 yard touchdown pass with 1:10 left. Kansas State had one more chance but a fumble ended hopes of an upset. Each team had 2 turnovers and TCU had 543 total yards. Kansas State had 385 total yards. The Wildcats are 3-2 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season.

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Oklahoma is outscoring teams 37-23 this season. The Sooners are #26 in scoring nationally. Oklahoma is averaging 473 yards per game on offense including 329 passing and 144 rushing yards. The Sooners are in the top 22 nationally in both total and passing offense. However, Oklahoma is #99 nationally in rushing. On defense, Oklahoma is allowing 364 total yards per game including 174 passing and 190 rushing yards. The Sooners have forced 7 turnovers but have 9 of their own this season. Oklahoma averages 84 penalty yards and opponents average 76. The Sooners are 28/75 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 38/95. Oklahoma has forced 15 sacks and allowed 16 this season. The Sooners are 20/23 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns, and opponents are 14/17 with 7 touchdowns. Oklahoma has a defensive touchdown this season.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield has completed 66.3% of his passes for 1,593 yards with 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and has rushed for 133 yards with 4 touchdowns on 38 carries. Back-up Trevor Knight has thrown for 51 yards with an interception.

Running back Samaje Perine has 82 carries for 364 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 7 catches and a touchdown. Joe Mixon has 33 carries for 160 yards and a touchdown, along with 11 catches for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Sterling Shepard has 26 catches for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Dede Westbrook has 21 catches for 307 yards and a touchdown. Durron Neal has 16 catches for 286 yards and a touchdown. Mark Andrews has 8 catches for 154 yards and 3 touchdowns.

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Kansas State is outscoring teams 36-25 this season. The Wildcats are #31 nationally in points allowed. Kansas State is averaging 368 total yards a game on offense including 190 passing and 178 rushing yards. The Wildcats are #93 in total offense and #96 in passing nationally out of 128 teams. On defense, K-State is allowing 396 total yards including 291 passing and 105 rushing yards. The Wildcats are #115 in pass defense and #18 in rush defense. Kansas State has forced six turnovers and has five of their own. Kansas State averages 56 penalty yards per game and opponents average 64. The Wildcats are 31/68 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 33/83. KSU has forced 14 sacks and allowed 11 this season. The Wildcats are 27/29 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns and opponents are 12/15 with 9 touchdowns. Kansas State has a kick return for a touchdown this season, and has allowed a pick six.

Quarterback Joe Hubener has completed 47.7% of his passes for 827 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 64 carries for 224 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. Hubener was injured against Oklahoma State and receiver Kody Cook had to come in as the emergency quarterback. He threw for 122 yards with 2 touchdowns, and rushed for 87 yards on 21 carries with a touchdown Back-up Jesse Ertz is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Another quarterback Jonathan Banks is out indefinitely with an illness.

Running back Justin Silmon has 57 carries for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with a catch. Charles Jones has 37 carries for 162 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 82 yards. Winston Dimel has 19 carries for 48 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 2 catches for 80 yards.

Receiver Deante Burton has 15 catches for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dominique Heath has 14 catches for 196 yards and a touchdown. Kody Cook has 8 catches for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kyle Klein has 9 catches for 110 yards.

Oklahoma is 16-5 ATS after scoring less than 20 points, 6-2 against teams with winning home records, 24-10 after a straight up loss, 14-6 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 7-3 after rushing for 100 rushing yards or less, 3-7 in Big 12 games, 2-5 against teams with winning records, 2-6 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, and 2-8 in October. The road team has covered the last six games in this series. Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Manhattan.

Kansas State is 6-0 ATS after allowing 40 points or more, 5-1 against teams with winning road records, 23-5 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 17-4 after a straight up loss, 4-1 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 7-2 at home, 12-4 after a cover, 21-7-1 against teams with winning records, 38-13-1 in Big 12 games, 5-2 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 37-15-1 in October, 7-3 after allowing 450 total yards or more, 37-18-1 overall, and 39-19 on fieldturf. The over is 6-1 overall in this series and 4-1 in Manhattan between the teams. The underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 games in this series.

Oklahoma seemingly has a bad performance against a team they should beat every year. Last week, certainly fit that bill. Kansas State has lost two straight games in conference by a total of 9 points. The Wildcats led by at least 15 points in each of those contests. One thing to keep in mind is Oklahoma’s team plane suffered mechanical delays of almost nine hours and they didn’t take off until after 11:00 Central. Still, I think the angry Sooners rebound with a tough road win in a high scoring affair.

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