College Football Bedlam Betting Preview: #3 Oklahoma Sooners at #11 Oklahoma State Cowboys

#3 Oklahoma Sooners at #11 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Boone Pickens Stadium – Stillwater, Oklahoma
Saturday, November 28, 2015, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: Oklahoma -7
Current Line: Oklahoma -7 1/2
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 65
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -275 / Oklahoma State +225
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -335 / Oklahoma State +275

Oklahoma travels to Oklahoma State in a Bedlam battle for the Big 12 title.
Oklahoma travels to Oklahoma State in a Bedlam battle for the Big 12 title.

Both the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Oklahoma Sooners are 10-1 this season as meet for the annual Bedlam game Saturday in Stillwater. Both teams are 7-1 in the Big 12. Since Baylor lost to TCU Friday night, the winner will clinch the Big 12 title outright. The winner will also stay alive for a potential playoff berth, but Oklahoma has a much better shot as they are ranked #3 in the playoff standings.

Oklahoma leads the series 84-18-7 against Oklahoma State, including 36-7-5 in Stillwater. The series dates back to 1904, three years before Oklahoma was granted statehood. Oklahoma State won last year in Norman 38-35 in overtime. The Cowboys had to win that game in order to become bowl eligible.

Oklahoma is coached by Bob Stoops. The Sooners have home wins over Akron 41-3, Tulsa 52-38, West Virginia 44-24, Texas Tech 63-27, Iowa State 52-16 and TCU 30-29 last week, along with road wins at Tennessee 31-24 in double overtime, Kansas State 55-0, Kansas 62-7 and Baylor 44-34. Oklahoma has won five straight games  since a 24-17 loss against Texas in Dallas.

TCU was an 18 point underdog against Oklahoma and the total was 64. TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin missed the game with an ankle injury. The Horned Frogs took an early 7-0 lead, but Oklahoma scored 23 straight points to close out the first half. In the second half, Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield sat out with a concussion. The two teams exchanged touchdowns in the third quarter, but TCU missed a two point conversion. Oklahoma led 30-13 going into the fourth, and held off a furious TCU rally. TCU scored with 51 seconds left with a chance to tie the game. However, TCU went for two instead of kicking the extra point. The Sooners knocked the pass down and held on for the win. Oklahoma had 536 total yards to 390 for TCU. The Horned Frogs had four turnovers. Oklahoma is 8-3 ATS and the total is 7-4 this season.

Oklahoma State is coached by Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have road wins over Central Michigan 24-13, Texas 30-27, West Virginia 33-26 in overtime, Texas Tech 70-53 and Iowa State 35-31, along with home wins over Central Arkansas 32-8, UTSA 69-14, Kansas State 36-34, Kansas 58-10 and TCU 49-29. Oklahoma State lost their first game of the season last week at home to Baylor 45-35.

Baylor was a 3 point favorite at previously undefeated Oklahoma State last week and the total was 76. The Bears took an early 14-0 lead but the Cowboys would tie it up by the end of the first. Baylor scored 24 straight points to take control of the game. OSU would never get closer than 10 points for the rest of the game. Baylor overcame 3 turnovers but did have 700 total yards.  OSU is 6-5 ATS and the total is 7-4 this season.

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Oklahoma is outscoring teams 45-21 this season. The Sooners are #3 in scoring and #22 in points allowed nationally. Oklahoma is averaging 545 yards per game on offense including 320 passing and 225 rushing yards. The Sooners are in the top 20 nationally in all three categories. On defense, Oklahoma is allowing 341 total yards per game including 190 passing and 151 rushing yards. Oklahoma is #26 in pass defense and #23 in total defense nationally. The Sooners have forced 24 turnovers but have 16 of their own this season. Oklahoma averages 64 penalty yards and opponents average 57. The Sooners are 74/169 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 82/205. Oklahoma has forced 38 sacks and allowed 34 this season. The Sooners are 54/61 scoring in the red zone with 40 touchdowns, and opponents are 27/34 with 20 touchdowns. Oklahoma has two defensive touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield has completed 68.7% of his passes for 3,209 yards with 33 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and has rushed for 343 yards with 6 touchdowns on 120 carries. He is a Heisman Trophy contender. Mayfield passed concussion protocols and will play against Oklahoma State.  Back-up Trevor Knight has thrown for 305 yards with two touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and has 69 rushing yards with a touchdown.

Running back Samaje Perine has 194 carries for 1,160 yards and 13 touchdowns, along with 12 catches and a touchdown. Joe Mixon has 96 carries for 613 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 24 catches for 331 yards and 4 touchdowns. Both Perine and Mixon are probable with ankle injuries. Alex Ross and Daniel Brooks will also get some carries.

Receiver Sterling Shepard has 69 catches for 1,114 yards and 10 touchdowns. Dede Westbrook has 41 catches for 648 yards and 4 touchdowns. Durron Neal has 41 catches for 505 yards and 3 touchdowns. Mark Andrews has 17 catches for 286 yards and 6 touchdowns. Jarvis Baxter has 15 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown. Dimitri Flowers has 7 catches and 3 touchdowns.

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Oklahoma State is outscoring teams 43-26 this season. The Cowboys are #7 in scoring nationally. OSU averages 492 yards per game including 360 passing and 132 rushing yards. The Cowboys are in the top 17 nationally in total and passing offense but #112 in rushing. On defense, Oklahoma State is allowing 421 total yards per game, including 250 passing and 171 rushing yards. OSU is +15 in turnovers with 27 takeaways. Oklahoma State averages 51 penalty yards per game and opponents average 70. The Cowboys are 79/167 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 88/196. OSU has forced 36 sacks and allowed 29 this season. The Cowboys are 49/52 scoring in the red zone with 38 touchdowns. Opponents are 29/32 with 22 touchdowns. The Cowboys have two defensive touchdowns along with two special teams touchdowns and have allowed two as well this season.

Quarterback Mason Rudolph has completed 63.1% of his passes for 3,591 yards with 21 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and has a rushing touchdown. He has been in a walking boot all week, but is not listed on the injury report. J.W. Walsh has thrown for 338 yards with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions, and has 55 carries for 235 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns.

Running back Chris Carson has 114 carries for 466 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 11 catches. Rennie Childs has 64 carries for 264 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 7 catches. Raymond Taylor has 43 carries for 268 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jeff Carr has 34 carries for 142 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver James Washington has 45 catches for 908 yards and 9 touchdowns. David Glidden has 50 catches for 783 yards and 3 touchdowns. Marcell Ateman has 38 catches for 673 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jalen McCleskey has 23 catches for 228 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brandon Sheperd has 18 catches for 265 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jeremy Seaton, Jhajuan Seales, and Austin Hayes will also get some catches.

Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in Big 12 games, after rushing for 200 yards or more and overall, 8-2 against teams with winning home records, 4-1 after a straight up win, against teams with winning records, and in road games, and 2-5 after gaining more than 450 total yards. The road team is 4-1 ATS in this series recently. The Sooners are 7-3 ATS against the Cowboys including 4-1 in Stillwater.

Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards, 4-1 on fieldturf, 13-4 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 6-2 against teams with winning records, 10-4 after allowing 40 points or more, 5-2 after allowing more than 450 total yards, 7-3 in Big 12 games, 9-4 in November, 35-16 after passing for more than 280 yards, and 2-6 after a straight up loss. The over is 3-1-1 in this series recently. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in this series recently.

Since a head scratching loss to Texas, Oklahoma has been playing exceptionally well. If Oklahoma State can force turnovers, then they have a shot of pulling off the upset. I can’t see OSU stopping Mayfield and the Sooner offense otherwise. I think Oklahoma wins by double digits. Freezing rain is expected through most of the game so it could slow down two high powered offenses.

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