College Basketball Pac 12 Championship Betting Preview: Utah Utes vs Oregon Ducks

2016 Pac 12 Tournament – Championship
#2 Utah Utes vs #1 Oregon Ducks
Saturday, March 12, 2016, 10:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
MGM Grand Garden Arena – Las Vegas, Nevada
Opening Line: Oregon -1
Current Line: Oregon -2
Opening Total: 145
Current Total: 142
Opening Money Line: Oregon -127 / Utah +107
Current Money Line: Oregon -135 / Utah +115

Oregon and Utah meet in the Pac 12 Championship game in Las Vegas.
Oregon and Utah meet in the Pac 12 Championship game in Las Vegas.

Although it took both teams overtime to do it, the top two seeds have reached the Championship game of the Pac 12 tournament. The 27-6 Oregon Ducks and the 26-7 Utah Utes meet Saturday night in Las Vegas. Oregon won the regular season title with a 14-4 record by a game over 13-5 Utah. Oregon is looking for their fourth Pac 10/12 conference title and first since 2013. The Ducks beat Washington 83-77 in the quarterfinals and Arizona 95-89 in overtime in the semifinals Friday night.

Utah has never won a Pac 12 tournament title but did win several conference tournaments when they were in the WAC and Mountain West. Utah beat USC 80-72 in the quarterfinals and California 82-78 in overtime in the semifinals. Both Oregon and Utah are projected to be top three seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

Oregon is 9-1 against Utah since the Utes joined the Pac 12, including six straight wins. Oregon swept the regular season series 77-59 in Salt Lake City January 14 and 76-66 in Eugene February 7.

Utah is coached by Larry Krystkowiak. The Utes have a neutral site loss to Miami-(FL) in a tournament in Puerto Rico, plus road losses at Wichita State, California, Stanford, Oregon State and Oregon. The Utes have a home loss to Oregon. Utah has won 9 straight games. The Utes have neutral site wins over Texas Tech and Temple in Puerto Rico and Duke in New York City, plus road wins over Colorado, Washington State, Washington, UCLA, and USC. Utah has home wins over San Diego State, BYU, Oregon State, California, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, Arizona State, Arizona and Colorado. The Utes are 16-14-1 ATS and the total is 17-13-1 this season. Utah was a 2 point favorite against California and the total was 137.5.

Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have road losses at UNLV, Boise State, Oregon State Colorado, California and Stanford. Oregon has a neutral site win over Navy in Hawaii, plus road wins over Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, and USC. The Ducks have home wins over Baylor, Valparaiso, Arkansas State, Fresno State, UC-Irvine, Long Beach State, Alabama, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Colorado, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State, and Washington. Oregon is 18-12 ATS and the total is 13-17 this season. The Ducks were  a 1 point favorite against Arizona and the total was 152.5.

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Utah is outscoring teams 78-69 this season. The Utes are shooting 49% from the field and 36.2% from 3 point range. The Utes are #9 in field goal percentage. Utah makes 71.2% of his free throws. Opponents are shooting 41% from the field and 36.3% from three point range. Utah averages 37.8 rebounds per game and opponents average 29.2 points per game. Utah averages 12.5 assists, 10.5 turnovers, 5.5 steals and 4.5 blocks per game. Opponents average 7.3 assists, 7.5 turnovers, 6.8 steals and 5.8 blocks per game.

Center Jakob Poeltl was named the Pac 12 player of the year. He averages 17.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.6 blocks per game. Jordan Loveridge averages 11.8 points, 4 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. Kyle Kuzma averages 10.9 points, 6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. Lorenzo Bonam averages 10.2 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists. Brandon Taylor averages 9.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.5 steals per game. Kenneth Ogbe, Austin Montgomery and Jake Conner are all questionable Saturday.

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Oregon is outscoring teams 79-70 this season. The Ducks are shooting 46.6% from the field and 34.4% from 3 point range. Oregon makes 71.7% from the free throw line. Opponents are shooting 42.4% from the field and 36.1% from 3 point range. Oregon averages 36.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 30.3 per game. Oregon averages 13.7 assists, 11.7 turnovers, 7.4 steals and 5.9 blocks per game. Opponents average 13.2 assists, 14.2 turnovers, 4.6 steals and 3.1 blocks per game.

Dillon Brooks averages 16.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Elgin Cook averages 14.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Tyler Dorsey averages 13.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Chris Boucher averages 12 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game. Dwayne Benjamin averages 8.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game.

Utah is 7-1 ATS overall and against Pac 12 games, 6-1 against teams with winning records, 5-1 after a cover, 25-10 in Saturday games, 14-6 in neutral site games and 45-22-3 after a straight up win. The last six games in this series have gone under the total. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in this series recently.

Oregon is 4-1 ATS after a straight up win, overall, against Pac 12 teams, and against teams with winning records. 51-23-3 after a cover, and 4-9-2 after scoring more than 90 points. Oregon is 5-0-1 ATS against Utah recently.

Oregon won both games this season by double digits. They pretty much contained Poeltl. This game might be a little closer, but the Ducks are simply the better team.

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