College Basketball Betting Preview: #22 Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns

#22 Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns
Frank Erwin Special Events Center – Austin, Texas

Tuesday, January 21, 2014, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Texas -4 1/2
Current Line: Texas -5 1/2
Opening Total: 137 1/2
Current Total: 136
Opening Money Line: Texas -235 / Kansas State +195
Current Money Line: Texas -250 / Kansas State +210

Texas is a 5.5 point favorite against Kansas State Tuesday night in a key Big 12 battle.
Texas is a 5.5 point favorite against Kansas State Tuesday night in a key Big 12 battle.

Seven of the ten teams in the Big 12 have at least 13 wins this season, and the conference is considered by many to be the best in the country from top to bottom.Both the Kansas State Wildcats and Texas Longhorns are 14-4 this season as they meet Tuesday in Austin.  Kansas State is 4-1 in the Big 12 and a game behind the 5-0 Kansas Jayhawks. Texas is 3-2 and tied with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State for third in the conference.

Kansas State leads the series against Texas 16-10, but the series is tied 6-6 in Austin. The Wildcats beat the Longhorns 3 times last season, all by at least 12 points. Kansas State won in Manhattan 83-57, in Austin 81-69 and in the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City 66-49. Texas makes the return trip to Manhattan February 8.

Kansas State is coached by Bruce Weber. The Wildcats have losses to Northern Colorado, Charlotte and Georgetown in a tournament in Puerto Rico, and at Kansas. Kansas State has key wins over Oral Roberts, Long Beach State twice (once in Puerto Rico), Ole Miss, Gonzaga in Wichita, Tulane in Brooklyn, George Washington, Oklahoma State, at TCU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia Saturday 78-56. Kansas State has won 12 of their last 13 games, and two straight. The Wildcats are 10-5-1 ATS and the total is 4-11 this season.

Kansas State is outscoring teams 68-60 this season. The Wildcats are #11 in points allowed nationally. Kansas State is shooting 42.7% from the field and 31.9% from 3 point range. The Wildcats are #264 or worse out of 351 teams nationally in scoring, field goal percentage and three point shooting. Kansas State is #315 in free throw shooting at 64.9% from the line. Wildcat opponents are shooting 39.5% from the field and 26.7% from 3 point range. Kansas State is #42 in field goal defense and #6 in three point defense. The Wildcats average 37.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 31.2 per game. Kansas State averages 14.9 assists, 12.1 turnovers, 6.2 steals, and 2.8 blocks per game. Opponents average 10.7 assists, 13.2 turnovers, 6.1 steals and 3.7 blocks.

Guard Marcus Foster averages 14 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.9 assists. Forward Thomas Gipson averages 11.8 points and 6.3 points per game. Guard Shane Southwell averages 11.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Forward Wesley Iwundu averages 7 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game. Guard Will Spradling averages 6.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Forward Nino Williams averages 5.5 points and 3.1 assists per game. Nigel Johnson, Jevon Thomas, D.J. Johnson, and Omari Lawrence will also get time in the rotation.

Texas is coached by Rick Barnes. The Longhorns have losses to BYU in Kansas City, at home to Michigan State and Oklahoma, and at Oklahoma State. Texas has key wins over DePaul in Kansas City, at home against Vanderbilt, at North Carolina, at home against Rice, Texas Tech, and Iowa State Saturday 86-76 and at West Virginia. Texas has won 3 straight games. Texas is 8-7 ATS and the total is 9-6 this season.

Texas is outscoring teams 78-72 this season. Texas is #47 nationally in scoring. The Longhorns are shooting 44.5% from the field and 33.7% from 3 point range. Texas makes 65.9% of their free throws. The Longhorns are #290 out of 351 teams in free throw shooting. Texas opponents are shooting 40.1% from the field and 34.6% from 3 point range. Texas is #53 in opponents’ field goal percentage.  The Longhorns average 42.4 rebounds per game and opponents average 30.1 per game. Texas is #9 nationally in rebounding. The Longhorns average 12.4 points, 13.4 turnovers, 6.6 steals, and 6.6 blocks per game. Texas opponents average 12.8 assists, 13.1 turnovers, 7.2 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.

Texas forward Jonathan Holmes averages 13.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Guard Javan Felix averages 11.9 points, 1.7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Guard Isaiah Taylor averages 11.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and a steal per game. Center Cameron Ridley averages 10.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game. Guard Demarcus Holland averages 8.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Demarcus Croaker, Connor Lammert, Prince Ibeh, and Kendal Yancy will also get significant time in the rotation.

Kansas State is 5-0 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 9-1 against teams with winning records, 8-1 overall, 7-1 after a straight up win, 6-1 after a cover, and 4-1 against Big 12 teams. The Wildcats are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 against the Longhorns, including 6-1 in Austin.

Texas is 25-11-1 in Tuesday games, and 3-8-1 after a cover. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in this series recently. Five of the last six games in this series have gone over the total. The last six games in Austin in the series have gone over.

Besides undefeated Kansas, the other 13 win teams in the Big 12 seem to be evenly matched. They will likely beat up on each other for the rest of the season. I think Texas wins, but I think it comes down to the last play.

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