College Basketball Betting Picks: #21 Oklahoma State Cowboys at TCU Horned Frogs

#21 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Wilkerson-Greines Activity Center – Fort Worth, Texas
Saturday, February 14, 2015, 6:00 pm Eastern, ESPNU
Opening Line: Oklahoma State -4

Current Line: Oklahoma State -2 1/2 (-115)
Opening Total: 119 1/2
Current Total: 119 1/2
Opening Money Line: OSU -175 / TCU +150
Current Money Line: OSU -135 / TCU +115

Oklahoma State is a 2.5 point favorite against TCU Saturday.
Oklahoma State is a 2.5 point favorite against TCU Saturday.

Six of the ten teams in the Big 12 are ranked in the top 25 in what is widely considered to be the best conference in college basketball this season. The #21 Oklahoma State Cowboys are 17-7 with a 7-5 conference record. The Cowboys are in fifth place in the conference but six of the teams have between 4 and 6 conference losses. OSU travels to the reeling 14-10 Texas Christian Horned Frogs who have lost seven straight games to fall into last place in the conference at 1-10.

Oklahoma State leads the series against TCU 21-2 including 8-0 in Fort Worth. Oklahoma State has won 10 straight games against against TCU. The Horned Frogs haven’t beaten OSU since 1986. TCU makes the return trip to Stillwater March 4.

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Oklahoma State is coached by Travis Ford. The Cowboys have road losses at South Carolina, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma, along with home losses to Maryland andOklahoma. OSU has won 3 straight games and 4 of the last 5. The Cowboys have home wins over Milwaukee, North Texas, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and Kansas, neutral site wins over Oregon State and Tulsa in a tournament in Las Vegas and Missouri in Kansas City, and road wins over Memphis, Texas and Baylor 74-65 Monday . OSU is 13-8 ATS and the total is 7-12 this season. The Cowboys were 6.5 point underdogs against Baylor and the total was 125.5.

TCU is coached by Trent Johnson. The Horned Frogs have home losses to West Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas along with  road losses to Kansas State, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor and Texas 66-43 Wednesday. The Horned Frogs went 13-0 in non-conference play. The Horned Frogs also have home wins over Washington State and UTSA, along with neutral site wins over Bradley and Mississippi State in a tournament in Corpus Christi, and a road win over Ole Miss and Texas Tech. TCU is 7-11 ATS and the total is 5-10 this season. The Horned Frogs were 9.5 point underdogs against Texas and the total was 125.5.

Oklahoma State is outscoring teams 68-60 this season. The Cowboys are #34 nationally in points allowed. Oklahoma State is shooting 43.6% from the field and 33.5% from 3 point range. The Cowboys make 71.8% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 39% from the field and 32.4% from 3 point range. The Cowboys are #33 nationally in field goal defense. OSU averages 34.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 31.4 per game. Oklahoma State averages 11.8 assists, 12.1 turnovers, 8.7 steals and 5.1 blocks per game. Opponents average 10.8 assists, 14.6 turnovers, 6.2 steals and 3.2 blocks per game.

Guard/forward Le’Bryan Nash averages 17.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.1 blocks per game. Guard Phil Forte III averages 17 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 2.1 steals per game. Anthony Hickey, Jr. averages  9.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2 steals per game. Michael Cobbins averages 6.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. Six other players average at least 11 minutes per game.

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TCU is outscoring teams 68-60 this season. The Horned Frogs are #39 nationally in points allowed. TCU is shooting 43.3% from the field and 33.5% from 3 point range. TCU makes 59.4% of their free throws. The Horned Frogs are #350 out of 353 teams in free throw shooting. Opponents are shooting 38.3% from the field including 33% from 3 point range. TCU is #22 nationally in field goal defense. The Horned Frogs average 38.4 rebounds per game and opponents average 31.1. TCU is #30 nationally in rebounding. TCU averages 13.7 assists, 12.1 turnovers, 6.3 steals and 5.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 9.8 assists, 13.3 turnovers, 5.8 steals and 4.3 blocks per game.

TCU guard Kyan Anderson averages 13 points, 1.4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Trey Zeigler averages 8.7 points, 4 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. Kenrich Williams averages 8.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.1 blocks per game. Karviar Shepherd averages 6.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.1 assists per game. Chris Washburn averages 6.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. Amric Fields averages 7 points and 3.4 rebounds per game. Brandon Parrish, Chauncey Collins, and Hudson Price will also get  minutes in the rotation. Guard Charles Hill, Jr. is suspended indefinitely.

OSU is 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records, in Big 12 games and overall, 8-21 against teams with winning home records, and 7-19-1 in road games. The last 5 games in this series have gone under the total. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games against the Horned Frogs.

TCU is 9-19 in Saturday games, 20-44 against Big 12 teams, 23-52 at home, 2-6 after failing to cover, 1-6 against teams with losing road records, 0-4 after a straight up loss, against teams with winning records and and overall.

If you look at the stats, TCU should have a much better record than they do. They have a top 40 defense and are also one of the top rebounding teams in the nation. The free throw shooting is atrocious though and accounts for part of the losing streak. OSU on the other hand seems to have found their stride. This line opened at OSU -4 and moved to -2.5. TCU has lost 4 straight games by double digits and I think that trend continues as OSU wins comfortably.

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