Civil War College Football Betting: #5 Oregon Ducks at #15 Oregon State Beavers

#5 Oregon Ducks at #15 Oregon State Beavers
Saturday, November 24, 2012, 3:00 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Reser Stadium – Corvallis, Oregon
Opening Line: Oregon -11
Current Line: Oregon -9 1/2
Opening Total: 64 1/2
Current Total: 66 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon -380 / Oregon St +310
Current Money Line: Oregon -360 /Oregon St +300

Oregon takes on Oregon St in Corvallis in the annual “Civil War”. The Ducks are trying to rebound from a devastating 17-14 loss to Stanford in overtime last week.

Few losses in college football are as devastating as Oregon’s 17-14 overtime loss at Stanford last week. The Ducks were in prime position to go to the BCS Championship game as long as they won out. Now the #5 10-1 Ducks don’t even control their own destiny for the Pac 12 North Title and a trip to the conference championship game. The Ducks are 7-1 in the Pac 12, tied with Stanford, who of course holds the tie-breaker. The Ducks now have to hope Stanford loses at UCLA and win their Civil War game with arch-rival Oregon St in Corvallis. If Stanford beats UCLA, then the Cardinal and Bruins will play each other again next week in Palo Alto for the Pac 12 Championship with a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line.

Oregon has no pushover game either. Oregon St is 8-2 and ranked #15 in the BCS standings. While the Beavers can’t win the division or conference title, they can get to 10 wins by beating the Ducks and winning next week’s make-up game of the postponed season opener  against Nicholls St. A 10-2 Beavers would be a candidate for one of the at-large bids for the BCS Bowls. A win for Oregon though would lock-up at least a trip to a BCS Bowl, possibly the Fiesta Bowl.

This is the 116th meeting between the Ducks and Beavers. Oregon leads the series, 59-46-10, including 27-18-5 in Corvallis. Oregon has won 4 straight against Oregon St, including 49-10 last year in Eugene. This is the fourth time in the series that both teams are ranked, with the last time being in 2009.

Oregon is coached by Chip Kelly. The Ducks had won every game by at least 11 points prior to last week. They have home wins over Arkansas St 57-34, Fresno St 42-25, Tennessee Tech 63-14, Arizona 49-0, Washington 52-21, and against Colorado 70-14 along with road wins against Washington St 51-26 in Seattle, 43-21 at Arizona St, USC 62-51 and cal 59-17. The Ducks are 6-5 ATS and the total is 6-4 this season. Oregon was an 18.5 point favorite against Stanford and the total was 67.

Oregon is averaging 548.3 yards per game, including 234.7 passing yards and 313.5 rushing yards per game. The Ducks are #4 in total offense and #5 in rushing nationally. Oregon is outscoring teams 51-22 this season. The Ducks are #2 in scoring nationally. Oregon is +13 in turnovers, but the Ducks do have 19 turnovers this season. Oregon is averaging 73 penalty yards per game . The Ducks have allowed 17 sacks. Oregon is 95/187 on third and fourth down conversions and 58/64 scoring in the red zone with 53 touchdowns. On defense, Oregon is allowing 380.6 yards per game including 228.8 passing yards and 151.8 rushing yards. The Ducks have forced 26 sacks and 32 turnovers this season. Oregon opponents are 61/194 on third and fourth down conversions, and 28/44 scoring in the red zone with 20 touchdowns. The Ducks have returned 4 interceptions for touchdowns this season, and also have a punt return for a TD.

Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has completed 201 of 288 passes (69.8%) for 2,371 yards with 29 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Mariota has also rushed 90 times for 605 yards with 3 touchdowns. He has been sacked 15 times. Mariota even has a touchdown catch. Back-up Bryan Bennett has thrown for 211 yards, with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He also has 167 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. Running back Kenjon Barner has 220 carries for 1,426 yards and 19 touchdowns, along with 19 catches, 232 yards, and a touchdown. He is one of the favorites to win the Heisman, along with Kansas St quarterback Collin Klein and Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel. De’Anthony Thomas has 73 carries, 564 yards and 8 touchdowns. He also has 40 catches for  381 yards and 4 touchdowns. Thomas also returns kicks and punts, and has 1,375 all-purpose yards with a punt return touchdown. Byron Marshall has 79 carries, 417 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Receiver Josh Huff has 24 catches, 405 and 7 touchdowns.  Bralon Addison has 22 catches, 243 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Colt Lyerla  has 20 catches, 314 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 13 carries for 77 yards and a touchdown.  Keanon Lowe has 22 catches, 244 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Aside from the running backs, Dwayne Stanford and Daryle Hawkins will also get a lot of targets. Hawkins has three touchdown catches. Four Oregon defenders are questionable or out.

Oregon St is 6-2 this season in the Pac 12 under coach Mike Riley. The Beavers have losses at Washington 20-17 and Stanford 27-23. Oregon St has home wins over Wisconsin 10-7, Washington St 38-35, Utah 21-7, Arizona St 36-26 and last week against Cal 62-14, along with road wins at UCLA 27-20, Arizona 38-35, and BYU 42-24. The Beavers are 7-3 ATS and the total is 5-5 this season. Oregon St was a 15.5 point favorite in the California game last week and the  total was 48.5.

Oregon St is averaging 423.6 yards per game on offense, including 303.4 passing yards and 120.2 rushing yards. The Beavers are #20 nationally in passing but #105 in rushing. OSU is outscoring teams 30-19 this season. The Beavers are +12 in turnovers with 14 giveaways. Oregon St is averaging 66 penalty yards per game and has allowed 22 sacks. The Beavers are 51/154 on third and fourth down conversions, and 34/39 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. On defense, Oregon St is allowing 345.1 yards per game, including 236.4 passing yards and 108.7 rushing yards. The Beavers are #14 nationally against the rush. Oregon St has forced 26 turnovers and 23 sacks. Beaver opponents are 49/153 on third and fourth down conversions and 26/31 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns.

Oregon St has used two quarterbacks this season, Sean Mannion statted the season but missed some games due to an elbow injury. He was replaced by Cody Vaz. Mannion started the loss to Washington in his first game back but threw 4 interceptions. Vaz replaced him against Arizona St, but suffered a concussion in the Stanford game. Vaz missed the Cal game, and is questionable for this game. Mannion will likely start but both could see action if Vaz is cleared to play. Mannion has completed 149 of 238 passes (62.6%) for 1,904 yards with 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He has been sacked 11 times. Vaz is 80/140 passing (57.1%) for 603 yards with 8 touchdowns and an interception. He has been sacked 12 times.

Running back Storm Woods has 143 carries, 698 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 28 catches for 218 yards. Terron Ward has 48 carries, 313 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 32 yards.  Malcolm Agnew has 51 carries for 193 yards, and a touchdown catch for his only reception. Tyler Anderson has 13 carries, but 3 rushing touchdowns. He is doubtful with a knee injury. Receiver Brandin Cooks has 58 catches, 1,039 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 18 carries for 67 yards. Markus Wheaton has 69 catches, 986 yards and 10 touchdowns, along with 13 carries, 95 yards and a touchdown. Wheaton is probable with a head injury. Connor Hamlett has 21 catches, 276 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Besides Woods no other receiver has more than 17 catches.

Oregon has won 15 straight road games straight up. The Ducks are 4-0 ATS in road games against teams with winning home records, 7-1 in road games, 5-1 in Pac 12 games and overall, 4-1 against teams with winning records, 7-2-1 after failing to cover, 3-7-1 on fieldturf, and 1-6 after scoring less than 20 points. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the series in the last 6 games. Nine of the last ten have gone over the total, including 4-1 in Corvallis.

Oregon St is 6-1 ATS against teams with winning records, 5-1 in home games, 6-2 after gaining more than 450 yards, 3-1-1 in November, 19-7-1 after scoring more than 40 points, 8-3-1 overall, 5-2-1 on fieldturf and 43-20-2 after passing for more than 280 yards. The underdog is 4-1-1 in the last six in this series.

Oregon can’t have a hangover from last week’s Stanford disaster, because Oregon St is a very good team. The Beavers have a good run defense and might be able to contain the Ducks rushing attack much like Stanford did. However, i think an angry Ducks team comes out and wins the game. I do expect lots of points though as Oregon St is no slouch on offense either.

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