CFB Big 12 Championship Betting Preview: A Look at Nebraska-Oklahoma

Dr. Pepper Big 12 Championship Game, Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Oklahoma Sooners Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX, Saturday, December 4, 2010, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: Oklahoma -2 1/2
Current Line: Oklahoma -4
Opening Total: 54
Current Total: 53
Money Line: Oklahoma -190 / Nebraska +160

Texas Longhorns Vs Oklahoma Sooners — Landry Jones and the Sooners are 4 point favorites against rival Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game in Dallas

These two long time rivals meet for the last time as conference foes. Nebraska moves onto the Big Ten next year, and would love to win one more conference championship before leaving. Oklahoma would love nothing more than to kick Nebraska out of the conference with a loss. This series started before World War I and though the teams only meet every few years instead of annually, it hasn’t lessened the intensity of the rivalry. Last year Nebraska won 10-3 in Lincoln despite gaining only 180 total yards on offense. They harassed Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones (then a freshman) into throwing 5 interceptions. The winner of this game will likely play in the Fiesta Bowl against the champion of the mediocre Big East. The loser is likely headed for the Alamo Bowl. Both Nebraska and Oklahoma are 10-2 on the season. Nebraska, hasn’t won the Big 12 conference since 1999. Last year they nearly upset undefeated Texas in this game. Texas kicked a field goal as time expired to win 13-12. Oklahoma has gone 6-1 in conference title games straight up and has won 4 in a row. Oklahoma leads the overall series. 44-38-3. The South team has won 6 Big 12 Championship games in a row.

Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez is a game time decision with an ankle injury. Nebraska coach Bo Pelini has said that Cody Green will start if Martinez can’t go. Even if Martinez is able to play, Pelini said he might give Green some snaps as well. It is this uncertainty at quarterback that led to the 2 point line move in favor of the Sooners. The Nebraska offense is so much more dynamic if Martinez is healthy. Martinez has thrown for 1,435 yards, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Martinez might be more dangerous with his feet. He has 134 carries, 974 rushing yards, and 12 touchdowns. Green has thrown for 295 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception. He also has a rushing touchdown. Green started last week against Colorado and led Nebraska to a 45-17 win at home last week. Niles Paul (39 catches, 516 yards, and 1 touchdown) and Brandon Kinnie (40 catches, 455 yards, 5 touchdowns) are the top receivers for the Huskers. Kyler Reed only has 17 catches but has 6 touchdown catches. Nebraska only passes for 156 yards a game. They do rush for almost 270 yards a game led my Martinez, Roy Helu Jr. (166 carries, 1,120 yards, 10 touchdown runs) and Rex Burkhead (144 carries, 822 yards, and 7 touchdowns). Burkhead also has 2 touchdown passes out of the wildcat. Nebraska is outscoring opponents 34-17 on the season. They only give up 292 yards a game on defense, including 145 passing yards a game. Nebraska has forced 18 interceptions on the season, but only has a turnover margin of +4 because they have lost 12 fumbles on the season.

Oklahoma has injury concerns of their own. Running back DeMarco Murray is questionable with a knee injury. Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops is cautiously optimistic that Murray will be able to go, but it is far from a sure thing. If Murray can’t go, Roy Finch and Mossis Madu will split the carries. Murray has 240 carries, 1,053 yards, and 14 rushing touchdowns, but he is also a dangerous weapon catching the ball out of the backfield. He has 64 catches, 535 yards, and 5 touchdown catches. Finch and Madu have combined for 600 rushing yards, and 3 touchdowns. If Murray can go it certainly makes it easier for Sooner quarterback Landry Jones. Jones has been brilliant this season. He has thrown for just under 4,000 yards, 34 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Jones’ top target is Ryan Broyles. Broyles has 115 catches, 1,391 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Four other Sooner receivers have at least 3 touchdown catches. Tight End James Hanna has only 14 catches but has 6 touchdown catches. Oklahoma is outscoring their opponents 38-22 on the season. The Sooners average 480 yards game on offense, including 336 passing yards a game. They give up 370 yards a game on defense, including 152 rushing yards a game. The Sooners have a turnover margin of +11. For the most part the defense is solid but they do have lapses sometimes. The Sooners don’t close out games well, as they get outscored 112-55 in the fourth quarter.

Bettors should keep an eye on the injury situations for both teams, but Martinez is the key to the game. Even if Murray can’t go, Oklahoma still has plenty of weapons. However, Nebraska’s offense isn’t nearly as dangerous without a healthy Martinez. Even if Martinez plays he will definitely be hobbled and not be able to run as well as he normally does. In order for Nebraska to win, they can’t get into a shootout with Oklahoma. Nebraska must run the ball and keep the Sooner offense off the field. Although, the Sooners have such a quick-strike offense that they don’t need the ball for very long to score. Sometimes, Oklahoma will only take 15-20 seconds between snaps. This will be a great game that will be a fitting end to one of college football’s greatest rivalries.