Cleveland Cavs AT Phoenix Suns
January 9th, 2011 at 8 PM EST
Opening Spread:  Phoenix -10
Current Spread:  Phoenix -10.5
Opening Total: 209
Current Total: 211
Opening Moneyline:  Phx -725 / Cleveland +575
Current Moneyline:  Phx -775 / Cleveland +575

Cleveland has been struggling horribly, having lost their last 9, and perhaps the worst part is that this isn’t even the longest losing streak that they’ve had already in this young season.  They started out the year looking as though they could be a .500 team without Mr. James, but since then have faded into obscurity and sit at last place in the Eastern Conference, tied for the worst record in the league with the pathetic Sacramento Kings.

They certainly had the recipe for disaster.  Bringing their best player Antawn Jamison off the bench in order to develop youngster J.J. Hickson proved to be an error as Hickson played lazy basketball and barely tried on defense, making him a liability on both ends of the court.  Jamison has since stepped up and played decent basketball, but it hasn’t mattered because the only other player to play even decent himself has been Mo Williams, and neither he nor Jamison are the players they used to be in their respective heydays on Milwaukee and Washington.

The Suns haven’t exactly been rolling either.  They’ve dropped their past three and even at home – where they used to be very tough to beat – they sit at one game under .500 with an 8-9 record.  Nash predicted before the season that they wouldn’t be a contender, but you have to think he was at least expecting a low playoff seed; not this bad of a disaster.

Some betting trends:

Cleveland is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9.  The total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 6 games and OVER In 9 of their last 12 on the road.  They are 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 road games and the total has gone OVER in 8 of their last 12 against the Suns.  They are 7-15 SU in their last 22 against Phoenix and 4-1 SU in their last 5 vs Phoenix.  They are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games aganist the Suns and 2-9 SU in their last 11 in Phoenix.

Phoenix is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7.  The total has gone UNDER In 4 of their last 5 games and it also has gone UNDER In 4 of their last 5 at home.  They are 1-4 SU in their last 5 hoem games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Key Matchups:

Mo Williams vs. Steve Nash

Both these point guards are good, but Nash is more than good, he’s great.  He’s the lone holdover from the Amar’e – Nash tandem that went to the Western Conference finals last year, but without Amar’e he is left with Hakim Warrick at power forward, and that’s just not quite the same.  He made the comment that they lost Amar’e and “never replaced him,” which might have been a slight to Warrick, but he never made an issue of it.  Surely he must know he’s not the player Amar’e is.  Mo Williams has been decent, but it’s also been clear that his best days are behind him.  When he played for the Bucks he averaged upwards of 17 ppg and 6 assist per game, and while his assists have taken a slight jump, his scoring is down more than 2 points a game, and his field goal percentage is the lowest of his career, excluding his rookie year when he played only 13 minutes a game.  He’s a career 44% field goal shooter and this year is barely above 40%.  It can mostly be attributed to the fact that he now has no one to take attention away from him on the offensive end and with teams keying in on him and no longer leaving him open for threes, his game has suffered.

Anderson Varejao vs. Marcin Gortat

It doesn’t seem like the kind of matchup you would consider crucial, but given the fact that neither team has a lot of firepower, defense will be key in this game.  Gortat is a very good help side shot blocker and has been playing well since coming to Phoenix from Orlando.  Varejao, like Gortat, is a good defender, but neither is much on offense.  Gortat plays well in the pick and roll and Varejao gets a lot of garbage baskets on putbacks and the occasional dive to the hole.  Gortat will probably negate both strengths, rendering Varejao completely useless on the offensive end.  If the Suns can force him to take his weak jumpshot from the outside, it will go a long way towards perpetuating the Cavs’ struggles on the offensive end where they average just 94 points per game.

It’s weird to think you can have a team under .500 favored by 10+, but Cleveland is THAT bad.  NBA oddsmakers haven’t given them much respect, and there’s no reason that they should.