I really don’t understand the appeal of Tim Tebow. He’s a nice player and all, and he was a very successful college quarterback, but I don’t know why that is turning into a love affair with NFL fans unlike any other. The guy was a marginal first round pick who is only third on the Denver depth chart, and he’s far from a lock to be a long term NFL starter, never mind a star. Despite all of that, he led all players in NFL sales in April. That’s not just rookies, but everyone – including Donovan McNabb in new threads. Sam Bradford is a better player with a much brighter future, but his jersey only ranked ninth in the league. People are strange.
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I have the Blue Jays’ game on in the background as I write this. Ricky Romero has struck out four of the first five batters he has faced. Regular readers will know that this isn’t the first time I have talked about this guy. He’s a youngster who is already very good, and he has a chance to be very special. I bet on him tonight, and I expect to do a lot of that until people start to notice what he is. There isn’t a lefty with a better change-up in the league. Check this guy out if you have a chance. With the rotation they have now and Kyle Drabek ready any day the Jays have a shockingly good rotation for a team that just lost the best pitcher in baseball. Fun to watch – and to profit from.
The Derby. I respect every Derby winner – it’s the hardest race there is to win – but I have certainly respected other winners more than Super Saver. He won in a glacially slow time on a surface that was perfect for him, and he benefited from pretty much the perfect trip. Despite that he was getting chased down rapidly by Ice Box, who had had a brutal trip, down the stretch. I long for the day that I get to see a Triple Crown winner (I was alive for the last two, but was sadly too young to care), but I’m not getting my hopes up at all this year – despite what Calvin Borel says.
Zack Greinke. There couldn’t be a less likely guy in sports. On Sunday Greinke allowed one run in eight very solid innings and lost 1-0. In the last two years he has a 2.17 ERA with an AL best 16 quality starts and the best ERA in baseball, yet his team has gone 18-21 when he has started. He’s 0-3 this year despite pitching very well. Just imagine what this guy could do playing for a real team. Kansas City should grant him free agency just out of mercy.
1. There won’t be an upset throughout the playoffs – There is a big talent gap in the NBA. I don’t see an upset that is likely in the first round, and the standings lay out in such a way that the higher seeded team will be the better team if everything plays out as it is supposed to. It’s quite possible, then, that we could see a playoff race that runs exactly true to form. Something will probably disrupt it along the way, but it is definitely more possible this year than it has been in other years. The West could have had some big contests, but injuries are making that less likely.
2. Kevin Durant is going to make things fun – Despite the injury issues for the Lakers and the huge strides the Thunder have taken, Oklahoma City just isn’t ready to pull of an upset here. That being said, I think that Durant is going to be chomping at the bit to get his first taste of the playoffs, and to get some much deserved national TV exposure, and he’s going to make the most of it. We know that the guy is a big game player, and he and Kobe could have one heck of a showdown in this one. Kobe outscored Durant by just over a point per game in their four regular season meetings.
3. Vince Carter is going to be reborn – A guy as good as Carter is doesn’t have as much payoff success as he should have. He can’t always be accused of being a smart guy, but he’s smart enough to know that this is the best shot that he has had, and perhaps his last great chance to make a real impact. He’s matched up well in his opening series, and I look for him to really elevate his game in these playoffs. Orlando certainly could use some big play from him.
4. Derrick Rose will lead his team to a win in one game – The Cavs are clearly the best team in the league and are going to dominate the East, and likely the West when they get their chance. Rose and the Bulls are a feisty playoff team, though – remember the trouble they gave the Celtics last year – and I really do think that they will find a way to win one here.
5. The most vulnerable first round favorite is the Celtics – It’s hard to believe given how good they have been in the recent past, but the magic of Boston is clearly gone, and they are playing on borrowed time. They are still better than Miami and will win if both teams play their best, but if one team is going to lose series while holding home court advantage it will be Boston. They have struggled in the first round the last couple of years, and they just don’t have the margin of error now that they once did.
As some of you know over the last year or so we have been doing various work with ESPN on their insider pages providing stats and historical data as well as some against the spread predictions on the games. After a spectacular NCAA tournament providing winner after winner for their readership Chad Millman asked me for my take on Monday’s national championship game between Duke and Butler.
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