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Rhode Island Rams at Pittsburgh Panthers
Monday, 11/8/10, 7:00 PM EST; TV: ESPNU
Opening Point Spread: Pittsburgh -10.5
Current Betting Line: Pittsburgh -11
Opening Total: 136
Current Total: 136.5
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As I talked about after the game on Saturday I just don’t like Duke. They are justified favorites tonight, and the price isn’t unfair, but I just can’t stand the thought of backing them. I’ll be cheering (hard) for Butler, and over the last couple of days I have come up with five reasons to justify that, and to justify a bet against the evil empire.
1. Streak – This is a team that has won 25 games in a row. That’s really something – regardless of who they play. They haven’t done that with overwhelming athleticism or depth, but by attention to fundamentals, consistent effort, and excellent coaching. They are a very tough team to prepare for, and a tough team to exploit. It might be hard to see how they are going to win this one, or even keep it close enough to cover, but the same could be said before this, and they find a way.
2. Home court – The impact of the home court is going to be far more significant than it was last time. A lot of the fans who were around for the two eliminated teams will have sold their tickets to the finals, and Indy residents, and therefore Butler fans, are the most likely purchasers. Those who aren’t attached to one of these teams will be far more inclined to be cheering for lovable Butler than the devils from Duke. They handled the pressure of the situation well last game, and this time around it should be a boost – one worth a point or two in the outcome of the game.
3. Precedence – This is the 58th time since 1997 that Butler has been an underdog in a non-conference game. They have covered 41 of those games – 72 percent. Nothing wrong with that.
4. Rebounding – Duke is the better rebounding team by far. They are also very good at turning those rebounds into second chance points. Against Michigan State, though, the Bulldogs did a very good job of asserting themselves on defensive rebounds, and of limiting the second chance attempts the Spartans got. If they can do that again then they’ll be able to challenge Duke and keep it close.
5. Back to earth – Duke beat up on West Virginia because the Mountaineers did nothing well. Most glaring, though, was a total lack of three point defense – Duke shot 52 percent from beyond the arc. Butler just isn’t going to let them do that, and that will have an impact on everything else the Blue Devils will want to do.
As some of you know over the last year or so we have been doing various work with ESPN on their insider pages providing stats and historical data as well as some against the spread predictions on the games. After a spectacular NCAA tournament providing winner after winner for their readership Chad Millman asked me for my take on Monday’s national championship game between Duke and Butler.
Both of those basketball games were very interesting today, but in different ways – and only one was watchable.
First, the Butler game. I have a serious man-crush on Gordon Hayward. He had 19 points and nine boards, and was absolutely everywhere throughout that game. From start to finish he did everything for his team and is by far the biggest reason why this remarkable run continues. Most impressively, though, Hayward was able to play stifling, relentless defense all game while only drawing two fouls. I was convinced he was the best future pro heading into this Final Four. Now I am certain of it. As good as he was, though, what I’ll remember most about this game was the glaring absence of Kalin Lucas. Without their floor general Michigan State regularly looked confused and disorganized when they were moving the ball down the court, and they just weren’t effective enough when they needed to be. They did a good job of controlling the Bulldogs in the second half, but without Lucas they were unable to capitalize on it and grab the win that was there for the taking. This is a game that will haunt Izzo, Lucas, and everyone else for a long time.
Coach K is absolutely ridiculous. Did you catch his whining and ranting at his press conference today? What a baby. One of the papers in Indianapolis featured an article about the fact was a team that many, many people love to hate – a fact that is undeniably true. To illustrate the article, the coach was depicted with blue devil’s horns and a target on his forehead. Krzyzkewski spent far, far too long at the media gathering complaining about how juvenile the whole thing was, and how his grandkids are apparently horrified. Now, here’s the thing, Mike – you coach a team called the freaking Blue Devils. Therefore, depicting you as a devil with blue horns, while not necessarily the highest form of humor, just makes sense. The target makes sense, too – they are the only No. 1 seed remaining, and the team that everyone remaining would most like to beat. So, Coach K spending so much time complaining and being outraged was, well, juvenile. Man do I hope Duke loses.
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