Bookmaker: 2011-2012 NBA Assist Leader Prop Betting

Chris paul is now in a Clippers uniform and is my pick for this prop bet
Bookmaker has released their statistical prop bets. Who will turn in the highest assists average? With some player movement still to occur, things can get a little dicey. Chris Paul just switched teams yesterday, and Dwight Howard’s situation is still up in the air. Nonetheless, we’ll evaluate things as they stand now and take a look at who might excel in assists this season.


Rajon Rondo (+250)

Last season, Rondo posted his career high in assists, 11.2 per game. It was his first time in double digit assists, and according to Bookmaker, he is the favorite to win this award. But he’s not my pick. With a declining roster and a shortened season, Rondo may see more rest himself, and having the other stars sitting means it will be harder for him to pick up assists. And it’s not only that, it’s that there is a much more attractive option…

Chris Paul (+280)

Now that Paul is in a Clippers uniform, I am expecting a big improvement on last year’s “mere” 9.8 per game. In 07-08, with only David West to pass to, Paul put up 11.1 assists per night. On a loaded Clippers team, I expect that number to exceed 12; and I expect Chris Paul to put up a career high in assists and take this prop bet. To me, he is the only logical pick with a declining Steve Nash and Jason Kidd, not to mention the fact that Deron Williams and Rajon Rondo have no where near as many passing options and are not on the same level as Chris Paul right now, anyway. My money is on CP3, and yours should be, too.

Steve Nash (+250).

SUCKERS BET. Phoenix is awful and Nash will probably want out sooner than later. He’s going to see a career low in minutes most likely this season as they obtained gunner Aaron Brooks at the trade deadline last season, and he represents the future at point guard for the Suns. If they can flip Nash for a couple first round picks, you can bet they’ll take it. What I won’t take is Nash at these odds. He’s past his prime and the days when he won back to back MVP awards are long gone. I would never even consider betting at Nash when the odds are the same as Rondo and relatively the same as Chris Paul, both of whom have far better chances.

Deron Williams (+500)

This is the only other bet worth considering for assists, and only if the Nets acquire Dwight Howard. While Williams is more than capable of putting up numbers without Howard, having the big man would elevate his assists enough to compete for this prop bet. But without Howard, I don’t see it happening.

Derrick Rose (+1200), John Wall (+1000), Russell Westbrook (+800)

These are the only other three worth considering, and I’m not really high on any of them. Rose is too counted upon to score; John Wall is a good option in two years, but not yet; and Westbrook still needs to figure out he is the number TWO option and start passing the ball more. Unless you really like Wall to improve on an injury riddled rookie season, I don’t see much betting value here at all.

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