With the news of the blockbuster trade between New Orleans and the Los Angeles Clippers, Bodog has released odds on the players involved in the trades and their significant stats. We’re going to take a quick look at the four prop bets offered with Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, and Chris Paul and attempt to discern which if the four, if any, offer the most value.
Eric Gordon, New Orleans Hornets, Over/Under 23.5 points per game
They really set the bar high on this one, but I understand why. New Orleans is going to be absolutely dreadful in the wake of not only losing Chris Paul, but also losing one time NBA-All-Star David West, who recently signed with the Indiana Pacers. With both of the top two scorers departing and only the likes of Trevor Ariza to fill the hoop, Eric Gordon is going to go absolutely bonkers.
What limits him is this: As an alpha dog now, he is going to get a lot of double teams and extra attention he may not be used to. This means he will have to adapt to playing in not only a new offense, but also adjust to having an entirely different role on his team. While he did lead the Clippers in scoring, he also had Baron Davis (pre-trade) and Chris Kaman to defer to.
In New Orleans he will not have that luxury.
So, do I think Gordon can average over 23.5 points per game?
No. I think he will fall just short because while his situation would theoretically improve, he is going to be on a very bad team and it’s not like he can hoist a lot more shots than the 16.9 attempts he had per game last season. With a shortened season, it might take an even bigger part (proportionally) of the year to adjust to the new scenery, too.
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers, over/Under 17.5 points per game
This line seems really appropriately set given the level of talent that will be in a Clippers uniform next season. With Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to lob to, Paul will be focusing primarily on setting up his bigs, while in the past he had to shoulder more of a scoring load. Still, putting up 17.5 points per game doesn’t seem like asking a lof of a guy who put up 22.8 per game in 08-09.
Nonetheless, I am staying away from this line. It’s too dependent upon Chris Paul’s attitude towards his new role. If he looks more for his own shot, he could easily average more than 17.5, which would be 0.6 points per game below his career average. With an undefined role, it is hard to make the prop bets in this article, but this one I am definitely leaving alone.
Chris Paul over/under 11 assists per game
This is a clear ‘over.” While Paul only averaged 9.8 last season and then 10.7 the season prior, at his peak for the Hornets he put up 11.6 in 07-08 and 11.0 in 08-09. He hasn’t regressed as a player since then and he is in a very favorable situation with a couple of high flying big men and a couple of shooters on the wings in Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler. The potential is there for as many as 12 assists, in my opinion.
Who will lead the NBA in Dunks?
EVEN ODDS: Blake Griffin or Dwight Howard?
This really depends on what the Magic do to help Howard out, but with Chris Paul in town and just given the effect he had on Tyson Chandler’s game, I am expecting Griffin to take this one. The funny thing is that Griffin isn’t nearly as reliant on dunks as people think. He scored 40 on the Pacers with only one dunk. Still, it is his primary weapon since just about no one can elevate with him. While Howard is there to clean up a lot of garbage shots with dunk follow ups, Griffin will be found a lot around the hole on slash cuts, as well. All in all, it’s asking too much of Dwight to expect him to put up the same kind of dunk — not to mention scoring — numbers that Griffin will next season with Paul feeding him the ball.