Big Ten Rivals Clash In East Lansing: Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan St Spartans

Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan St Spartans
Jack Breslin Student Events Center – East Lansing, Michigan
Saturday, January 21, 2012, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Michigan St -8 1/2
Current Line: Michigan St -8
Opening Total: 136 1/2
Current Total: 136
Opening Money Line: Michigan St -420 / Purdue +330
Current Money Line: Michigan St -420 / Purdue +330

Michigan St and Purdue are both 4-2 in Big Ten play this season as they meet Saturday in East Lansing. The Spartans are 8 point home favorites.

The Big Ten is a jumbled mess as Michigan is 5-2 and leads a pack of 4 teams by a half game at 4-2. That pack includes the 14-5 Purdue Boilermakers and the 15-4 Michigan St Spartans. The Boilermakers and Spartans meet Saturday in a crucial conference game. Purdue leads the overall series 65-46, but Michigan St is 28-25 all time in East Lansing. The Boilermakers have won 2 straight games in East Lansing. The Spartans won the last meeting 74-56 in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals last year in Indianapolis.

Purdue is coached by Matt Painter. The Boilermakers have losses to Alabama, Xavier, Butler, Penn St, and Wisconsin. Purdue has wins over Northern Illinois, Iona, Temple,  Western Michigan, Miami-FL, Eastern Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa 75-68 Tuesday night.

Michigan St is coached by Tom Izzo. The Spartans have losses to North Carolina Duke, Northwestern, and Tuesday night at Michigan 60-59. The Spartans have lost two games in a row after a 15 game winning streak. Michigan St has wins over Milwaukee, Eastern Michigan, Florida St, Gonzaga, Bowling Green, Indiana, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

Purdue is outscoring opponents 73-62 this season. The Boilermakers shoot 44.5% from the field, including 36.5% from 3 point range. Purdue makes 61.9% of their free throws. The Boilermakers average 34.8 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +0.5. Purdue averages 13.8 points, 9.6 turnovers, 7.6 steals, and 3.7 blocks a game. Boilermaker opponents are shooting 41% from the field including 35.2% from 3 point range. Purdue forces 14.5 turnovers a game.

Purdue forward Robbie Hummel averages 16.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.2 blocks a game. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and blocks and is shooting 37.1% from 3 point range. Ryne Smith averages 10.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists. Smith shoots 45.3% from 3 point range. Lewis Jackson averages 10 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists to lead the team, and 1.2 steals a game. Kelsey Barlow averages 8.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.4 steals a game to lead the team. Terone Johnson averages 7.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.2 steals a game.

Michigan St is outscoring opponents 76-61 this season. The Spartans are shooting 47.8% from the field including 36.9% from 3 point range. MSU makes 69.6% of their free throws. The Spartans average 40.2 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +10.2. Michigan St is #10 in the country in rebounding. The Spartans average 16.7 assists, 13.9 turnovers, 8.2 steals, and 4.7 blocks a game. MSU opponents are shooting 38.6% from the field including 30.1% from 3 point range. The Spartans force 14.3 turnovers a game.

MSU forward Draymond Green averages 15.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 blocks a game. He leads the Spartans in all categories except assists. Green is shooting 40.3% on three pointers.  Keith Appling averages 12.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists to lead the team, and 1.1 steals a game.  Brandon Wood averages 9.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. Branden Dawson, Adreian Payne, Travis Trice and Derrick Nix all contribute significantly as well.

Michigan St is 10-6 against the spread and the total is 8-7-1 overall. Purdue is 8-8 ATS and the total is also 8-8 this season. Purdue is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings against Michigan St, including 4-1 in East Lansing. Twelve of the last fifteen meetings have gone under the total. The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS after failing to cover, 4-1 as a road underdog, 5-2 in Saturday games, 7-18-1 as an underdog of between 7-12.5 points, 2-7 in Big Ten games, 1-4 after a straight up win, and 1-4 as a road dog of between 7 and 12.5 points. The Spartans are 4-1 ATS after failing to cover, and as a favorite of 7-12.5 points, 5-2 at home, and as a home favorite, 10-4 against teams with winning records, 9-4 overall, 3-8-1 after a straight up win, and 2-8-1 in Saturday games.

Though Purdue has had success recently at East Lansing, the Spartans return home after two tough road losses. A loss for either team would send them further back in the pack of the parity driven Big ten. I like Michigan St to rebound at home in a close hard fought game.

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