#19 Wisconsin Badgers at #13 Michigan Wolverines
Crisler Center – Ann Arbor, Michigan
Sunday, January 8, 2012, 1:30 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Wisconsin -1
Current Line: Wisconsin -1
Opening Total: 112 1/2
Current Total: 112 1/2
Opening Money Line: Wisconsin -120 / Michigan +100
Current Money Line: Wisconsin -120 / Michigan +100
Both Wisconsin and Michigan are ranked in the top 25, but will drop after excruciatingly close losses in their last games. Wisconsin lost at home Tuesday night to Michigan St 63-60 in overtime. Wisconsin guard Ryan Evans appeared to tie it up as time expired in overtime on a 3 pointer but officials reviewed it and said it was after the buzzer. Michigan was down by 10 with 7 minutes to go at Indiana Thursday night. The Wolverines rallied and pulled to within 2 with seconds left, but they missed a desperation heave as time expired, and Indiana held on for the 73-71 win.
Wisconsin, coached by Bo Ryan, is #19 currently, and is 12-4 overall and 1-2 in the Big Ten. The Badgers have lost 2 straight games with the Michigan St loss and to Iowa in the previous game. The Badgers also have losses to North Carolina and Marquette. Wisconsin has wins over Colgate, Wofford, Bradley, BYU, Green Bay, UNLV, Milwaukee, and Nebraska.
Michigan is currently #13, under coach John Beilein. The Wolverines are 12-3 overall and 2-1 in conference. Michigan has additional losses to Duke in the Maui Invitational and Virginia. The Wolverines have wins over Memphis and UCLA in Maui, Iowa St, Oakland, Bradley, Penn St, and Minnesota. Michigan leads the series 86-67 against Wisconsin. However, Wisconsin has won the last 10 in the series including 53-52 last year in Ann Arbor in the teams’ only meeting.
Wisconsin is outscoring opponents 67-47 this season. The Badgers are number one nationally in points allowed & opponent’s field goal percentage and #2 in opponent’s 3 point percentage. Badger opponents are shooting 34.9% from the field, and 24.9% from three point range. The Badgers are shooting 44.3% from the field, and 37.4% from 3 point range. Wisconsin makes 70.5% of their free throws. The Badgers average 35.8 rebounds a game, with a rebounding margin of +4.3. Wisconsin averages 12.5 assists, 8.4 turnovers, 5.9 steals, and 3.9 blocks a game. Wisconsin forces 12.6 turnovers a game.
Wisconsin guard Jordan Taylor averages 13.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1 steal a game. Taylor leads the Badgers in scoring and assists. Jared Berggren averages 11.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 1.6 blocks a game. He leads the team in steals and blocks. Evans averages 10.2 points, 6.6 rebounds to lead the team, 1.6 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks a game. Ben Brust averages 10.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.2 assists a game. The top 7 scorers for the Badgers all shoot over 33% from 3 point range. Little used guard Dan Fahey is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Michigan is outscoring opponents 71-61 this season. The Wolverines are shooting 48% from the field, including 36.9% from 3 point range. Michigan makes 68.4% of their free throws. The Wolverines average 33.7 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +2.9. Michigan averages 14.5 assists, 12.1 turnovers, 5 steals, and 2.7 blocks a game. Wolverine opponents are shooting 41% from the field, and 34.6% from 3 point range. Michigan forces 13.5 turnovers a game.
Michigan guard Tim Hardaway, Jr. averages 15.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.7 assists a game. He also has the shooting ability of his father, making 27.1% of his 3 point attempts. Trey Burke averages 13.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 5.2 assists a game to lead the team. He makes 36.8% of his three point attempts. Evan Smotrycz averages 10.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. He leads the Wolverines in rebounds and steals. He is shooting 55.3% from 3 point range. Zack Novak averages 9.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, and shoots 39.6% from 3 point range. Forward Jon Horford leads the team in blocks with 1 game, but he is out indefinitely with a foot injury.
Michigan is 7-5 against the spread and the total is 9-2-1 this season. Wisconsin is 9-4 ATS and the total and the total is 4-9 this season. The underdog has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series, and the last 5 have gone under the total. The Badgers are 10-4 ATS after failing to cover, 9-4 overall, and 1-4 in Big Ten games. The Wolverines are 14-2 ATS in Big ten games, 5-1 in Sunday games, 21-6 overall, 9-3 in home games, 19-7 after a straight up loss, 35-16 against teams with winning records, and 1-4 after a cover.
Neither of these teams can afford another conference loss right now, as they can’t afford to get too far behind undefeated Michigan St in the Big Ten standings. Both teams need to put hteir last games behind them. I think this game could be played in the 50’s and I like the under in this game.
