Big Ten Free Betting Picks: Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes

Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes
Kinnick Stadium – Iowa City, Iowa
Saturday, October 22, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: Big Ten Network
Opening Line: Iowa -23
Current Line: Iowa -23 1/2
Opening Total: 53 1/2
Current Total: 54 1/2
Opening Money Line: Iowa -2300 / Indiana +1350
Current Money Line: Iowa -2400 / Indiana +1375

Iowa hosts Indiana Saturday in Big Ten action. The Hawkeyes are 23.5 point favorites.

The 1-6 Indiana Hoosiers travel to Iowa to take on the 4-2  Hawkeyes. Indiana is coached by Kevin Wilson in his first year with the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers only win came at home versus South Carolina St 38-21. Indiana has losses to Ball St in Indianapolis 27-20, at home against Virginia 34-31, at North Texas 24-21, at home to Penn St 16-10, home against Illinois 41-20, and last week at Wisconsin 59-7. Iowa, coached by Kirk Ferentz, has home wins over Tennessee Tech 34-7, Pittsburgh 31-27, Louisiana-Monroe 45-17, and last week against Northwestern 41-31. Iowa is 0-2 on the road with losses at Iowa St 44-41 in overtime and at Penn St 13-3. Iowa leads the overall series against Indiana 41-27-4, including 22-10-3 in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes have won 3 straight against the Hoosiers including 18-13 last year in Bloomington.

Last week, Indiana played at #4/#6 Wisconsin. It wasn’t a pleasant trip for the Hoosiers as they were destroyed 59-7. The only good thing for the Hoosiers was they didn’t give up 84 points to the Badgers as they did last season. Wisconsin easily covered the 37.5 point spread  Indiana was down 28-0 before they scored their only touchdown of the game. It was a miserable day for the Hoosiers, epitomized by a punt that that bounced off an Indiana lineman’s helmet for a net of one yard. Indiana had 287 total yards, including just 64 passing yards, and 13 first downs. Indiana had 6 penalties and 3 turnovers in the game, including a fumble returned for a touchdown by Wisconsin in the fourth quarter. The Badgers also had a 60 yard punt return for a touchdown. Running back Stephen Houston was the lone bright spot for the Hoosiers with 19 carries 135 yards, and a touchdown. Wisconsin had 524 total yards including 332 rushing yards.

Indiana is averaging 357.1 yards a game, including 223.4 passing yards a game. Indiana is scoring 21 points a game. Indiana has 13 turnovers and has allowed 20 sacks this year. The Hoosiers are 53/133 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/18 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns. The defense is allowing 436.1 yards and 31.7 points a game. The rush defense is among the worst in the country giving up 227.4 yards a game. Indiana has forced 13 turnovers and 7 sacks this season. Hoosier opponents are 54/112 on third and fourth down conversions, and 23/28 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. The Hoosiers have 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.

Hoosier quarterback Edward Wright-Baker is 86/144 passing with 979 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, along with 44 carries for 73 yards. He missed two games with an ankle injury but returned last week for the Wisconsin game. He is listed as questionable for the Iowa game.  Back-up Dusty Kiel is 39/82 passing for 427 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception. Kiel is out until mid-November with an ankle injury. If Wright Baker can’t go it will be up to third stringer Tre Roberson, who has 22 attempts and one interception this year. He is better as a runner with 24 carries, 62 yards, and a touchdown.   Houston has 73 carries, 354 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 92 yards. Running back D’Angelo Roberts has 45 carries, 194 yards, and a touchdown, along with 6 catches for 51 yards. Roberts was the starter but was injured and has been used sparingly since he came back for the Illinois game.  Matt Perez has 51 carries for 174 yards and 4 scores along with 3 catches for 23 yards. Seven Hoosier receivers have at least 10 catches this season. DaMarlo Belcher has 25 catches, 286 yards, and 1 touchdown. Belcher is questionable with a knee injury.  Kofi Hughes has 16 catches for 252 yards and 2 scores.  Duwyce Wilson has 15 catches, 176 yards, and 2 touchdowns.  Dre Muhammad has 16 catches for 161 yards. Kicker Mitch Ewald is 18/18 on extra points and 7/9 on on field goals with a long of 49 yards. Indiana has 12 players listed as questionable, doubtful, or out for for the Iowa game.

Iowa was a 6.5 point favorite at home last week against Northwestern. Iowa jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the second quarter but Northwestern came back to tie it up in the third. Iowa then scored 17 unanswered points to go up 34-17. Northwestern outscored them 14-7 in the last five minutes of the game to make the final 41-31. Northwestern had 116 more total yards than Iowa 495-379. Northwestern had more turnovers than Iowa 2-1, including an interception returned 98 yards by Iowa for a touchdown in the first quarter. Iowa quarterback James Vandenburg threw for 224 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Marcus Coker had 22 carries, 124 yards, and 2 touchdown runs. Receiver Keenan Davis had 5 catches, 109 yards, and a touchdown. Marvin McNutt had 6 catches, 87 yards, and a touchdown for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa has averaged 386.5 yards a game and 32.5 points a game so far in 6 games. The Hawkeyes are averaging 253 passing yards and 133.5 rushing yards a game.  Iowa has 8 turnovers on the season and has allowed 10 sacks. Iowa is 34/80 on third and fourth down conversions, and 22/23 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns.   Defensively, Iowa is allowing 405.5 total yards a game and 23.2 points a game. The Hawkeyes are allowing 152.3 rushing yards and 253.2 passing yards a game. Iowa has forced 11 turnovers and 11 sacks. Hawkeye opponents are 56/108 on third and fourth down conversions, and 18/26 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. The Hawkeyes have 2 defensive touchdowns this season.

Vanderberg is 112/185 passing with 1,488 yards and 12 touchdowns with 4 picks. Vanderberg also has 36 carries for 59 yards and 3 touchdown runs. Coker is the leading rusher with 127 carries for 578 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 94 yards. No other Hawkeye has more than 11 carries besides Vanderburg and Coker. McNutt has 35 catches for 573 yards and 5 touchdowns. Keenan Davis has 19 catches, 286 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kevonte Martin-Manley has 27 catches, 421 yards, and 4 scores. Kevonte Martin-Manley has 18 catches, 208 yards, and 3 touchdowns.  Kicker Mike Meyer is 22/22 on extra points, and 11/13 on field goals with a long of 50 yards. Six Iowa players are listed as questionable or out for the Indiana game, including 4 defensive players.

Iowa is 3-3 against the spread this season and the total is 4-2 in those games. Indiana is 3-4 ATS this season and the total is 4-3 in those games. The Hoosiers are 2-5 ATS in October, and as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, 1-4 as a road underdog including 0-4 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, 1-5 in road games, and 0-4 in road games against teams with winning home records. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in home games against teams with losing road records, 5-1-1 at home, including 4-1 as a favorite, 7-2 in October games, 7-18 as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, 1-4-1 in conference games, and 1-5 after a straight up win.

Indiana and Minnesota are easily the worst teams in the Big Ten. Indiana has played a lot of close games until the last couple of weeks as they were blown out by Illinois and Wisconsin, both currently ranked in the top 25. Iowa isn’t quite as talented as those two teams and Indiana could hang around in this game. I just think 23 1/2 is too many points for an inconsistent Iowa team to give up.

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