Big Ten Football Odds, Picks: (12) Michigan State at (13) Ohio State

(12) Mich St- (13) Ohio St
Time: 11 AM CT (FOX)
Spread: OSU -16.5
Total: 54.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Ohio State Buckeyes are 7-2 and 5-1 in Big Ten play, and it will host visiting Michigan State at 11 AM (Central) on Saturday. The Buckeyes are 16.5-point favorites in the game, which has an over/under of 54.5 points according to college football oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.

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Ohio State lost 55-24 to Iowa last week, its first loss since a Week 2 stable against then-No. 5 Oklahoma. Iowa simply had its way with the Buckeyes last week. The Hawkeyes’ QB Nathan Stanley threw for 226 yards and Iowa picked up another 243 yards via the rush, as it out-gained OSU in total yardage 449 to 371. Iowa running back Akrum Wadley led all rushers with 118 yards, and Stanley threw five TD passes without a single interception.

Ohio State’s typically strong defense was utterly thwarted by a versatile Hawkeye attack. J.T. Barrett struggled badly for Ohio State, throwing four interceptions and incurring a sack. He also fumbled, as did Mike Weber. Weber had just 27 yards on five carries, while Barrett managed 63 yards on 14 attempts. Overall, though, Ohio State looked like the ‘Little brother’ in Big Ten play as it suffered its first conference loss of the season.

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OSU had won six-straight games prior to last week’s loss, and college football oddsmakers project that the Buckeyes will right the ship this week. Michigan State is ranked higher at No. 12, but the Spartans have already lost on the road in Conference play this year when it fell 39-31 to Northwestern two weeks ago. Last week, the Spartans defeated Penn State 27-24 to pick up a huge victory against an AP ranked team and keep the Spartans in the chase. Michigan State leads the East Division of the Big Ten at 5-1 (Big Ten), and after this week the team will close the season with meetings against Maryland and Rutgers.

Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke has had a strong season with 2,207 yards and 16 TD passes to just five interceptions. He has also rushed for 368 yards on 82 attempts (4.5 yards-per-carry) while ranking No. 2 on the team in TD rushes (Three). L.J. Scott has led the way of backfield performers with 554 yards on 127 attempts, with five TD rushes. Madre London has rushed for 250 yards with two TD rushes. Michigan State has rushed for 10 TDs on the year, but it has 16 via the pass. Felton Davis III is the main reason for that with eight TD catches by himself, part of his 586 yards and 45 receptions.

Wide receiver Darrell Stewart Jr. also has caught 40 catches for 427 yards, and MSU averages 11.5 yards per reception this season on its 193 total catches. The balance MSU has achieved makes it a difficult cover, but expect Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes to bounce back as that is a typical trait of his squads. Though MSU is ranked higher and both teams are 5-1, we expect the Buckeyes home field advantage to make the difference as it wins by at least 10-points. As to covering the 16.5 point spread, that is a much tougher call obviously.

Ohio State is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 games following an ATS loss. However, OSU is 4-9 ATS following a game in which it allowed 200 rushing yards or more. Ohio State is also 1-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season and it is 1-5 ATS in its past six at home.

Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its past six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, and it is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 November games.

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