Big Ten College Football Picks: (6) Michigan Wolverines at (24) Michigan State Spartans

(6) Michigan at (24) Michigan State

Time: 11 AM CT

Spread: MICH -7.5

Total: 40.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Michigan Wolverines have won six straight games since losing its season opener to Notre Dame. Last week it knocked off then-No. 15 Wisconsin 38-13 to improve to 4-0 in Big Ten play this season. The Wolverines are ranked No. 6 and will be 7.5-point favorites on the road against rival Michigan State. The Spartans are ranked No. 24, and the game will air at 11 AM (CT) on FOX. The over/under is set at 40.5 points according to college football oddsmakers at 5dimes.

MICHIGAN

Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson threw 14 of 21 last week for 124 yards, but he rushed for another 90 yards on nine attempts with a rushing TD. Karan Hidden had 105 yards on 19 attempts with a TD, and Dylan McCaffrey added one 44-yard TD rush. The Wolverines racked up 320 team rushing yards an three rushing TDs, with a 6.7 yard-per-carry average in the game. Meanwhile, it held Wisconsin to just 100 passing yards, though it did surrender 183 rushing yards to the Badgers.

The Wolverines had just two receivers with 30-yards receiving or more in the game, but it showed it can dominate the game on the ground and with its defense. It is hoping to have similar success against Michigan State. The Wolverines rank No. 9 in the country, holding opponents to just 15.4 points per game while scoring 38.1 itself (No. 23). The Wolverines’ rush attack gains 217 yards per contest, and it ranks No. 28 among FBS teams in rush offense.

Michigan has already got 687 yards from Higdon, and he leads the team with six rushing TDs, as well. Tru Wilson has 214 yards, Chris Evans has rushed for 190, and Patterson has 121 yards on 32 attempts from the QB position. Patterson has thrown for 1,311 yards at a 68 percent clip with 10 TDs and three interceptions, good for a passer rating of 154.8. McCaffrey has backed him up to throw 8 of 15 for 126 yards and two touchdowns.

MICH. ST.

Michigan State is 4-2 with a 2-1 mark in conference play. It won a big 21-17 victory over Penn State last week, and it has gone 1-0 against AP ranked opponents before its toughest test this week in the No. 6 Wolverines. Michigan State’s defense ranks No. 41 and holds opponents to 22.3 points per game, but its offense is poor at best, mustering just 26.2 points per game and ranking No. 90. The Rush attack has been particularly poor in generating just 123 yards per game, but it possesses a No. 34 ranked pass offense that racks up 271.5 yards per game.

No. 1 wide receiver Felton Davis III has 474 yards and four touchdowns, and Cody White has 300 yards and a pair of TDs. Brian Lewerke has thrown 135 of 225 for 1,587 yards and eight TDs, but he has seven interceptions already on the season. Connor Hayward is the No. 1 running back, but he has less rushing attempts than Lewerke, though more success. Lewerke has rushed 55 times for just 83 yards and two touchdowns, while Hayward has 191 yards and three touchdowns. The Spartans average just 3.4 yards per rush attempt, though it picks up 7.05 per pass attempt. The offense is not the hallmark of this team, but it has been good enough to go 4-2 on the strength of its defensive unit.

ATS TRENDS:

Michigan
  • Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
  • Wolverines are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Wolverines are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Wolverines are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October.
  • Wolverines are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
  • Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
  • Wolverines are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Michigan State
  • Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Spartans are 11-29 ATS in their last 40 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

OU TRENDS

Michigan
  • Over is 5-0 in Wolverines last 5 games in October.
  • Over is 8-1 in Wolverines last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Wolverines last 5 games overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Wolverines last 5 road games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Wolverines last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Over is 4-1 in Wolverines last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Wolverines last 5 conference games.
  • Over is 18-7-1 in Wolverines last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Wolverines last 7 games on grass.
Michigan State
  • Over is 6-0 in Spartans last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 home games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Under is 7-2 in Spartans last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-2 in Spartans last 8 games overall.
  • Over is 6-2 in Spartans last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Wolverines are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
  • Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Michigan State.
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