(14) Michigan at Maryland
Time: 11 AM CST
Spread: MIC -21.5
Odds c/o 5dimes
The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a 45-14 victory over No. 8 Notre Dame last week. Michigan moved up to No. 14 in the AP Rankings and it travels to face Big Ten foe Maryland at 11 AM (CST) on Saturday. The Wolverines are 21.5-point favorites and the over/under is set at 56 points according to NCAA Football oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.
The Wolverines are 6-2 with losses to Penn State and Wisconsin this season. Even so, Michigan is 2-2 against ranked teams this season given last week’s win and its win over Iowa in Week 5. Michigan ranks just No. 76 in passing yards at 224.6 per game and its rush attack ranks No. 57 at 172.6 yards per contest. The Wolverines score 31.3 per game while holding opponents to just 18.4, though, good for a differential of +12.9 points.
Michigan starting QB Shea Patterson has been fairly good overall. He has thrown for 1,622 yards with a 57 percent completion ratio, 11 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. His passer rating is 133.9. Patterson has also rushed 59 times for 91 yards and five touchdowns. Zach Charbonnet is the RB1, and he has nine touchdowns and 531 yards on the season. Hassan Haskins has 366 yards on 59 carries.
Michigan’s top two receivers are Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins. Bell leads the Wolverines in receptions with 25, and yardage with 441, but Collins is tied with Donovan Peoples-Jones for the lead in TD receptions (3). Nick Eubanks and Sean McKeon have combined to catch 24 passes for 271 yards from the tight end position for the Wolverines, which typically utilize two tight ends as receivers over the course of a game.
Maryland is 3-5 on the season but enters this week as losers of its last three. It fell 10-52 to Minnesota last week, 28-34 to Indiana the week prior, and 14-40 to Purdue three weeks ago. The Terrapins have been a dominant team rushing the football. It ranks No. 43 with 191.1 yards per game while averaging 212.3 per game via the pass. The Terrapins average 37 points per game while holding opponents to 29.0. However, over the last three weeks, it is allowing 42 points per game in the three-game skid.
Maryland turned to Tyler Desue and Tyrrell Pigrome last game at the QB position. DeSue completed just 4 of 12 for 88 yards with a TD, and Pigrome was 6 of 9 for 43 yards but threw two interceptions. Maryland also generated just 79 rushing yards on its 23 attempts, though Javon Leake did rush seven times for 44-yards including a 33-yard attempt. Maryland scored its only touchdown on a 59-yards pass to Tayon Fleet-Davis.
Maryland posted a 2-1 mark in non-conference play but it has gone just 1-4 in Big Ten games so far.
Leake has had a tremendous season in Maryland’s backfield. He has rushed 66 times for 543 yards (8.2 per) and tied for the team lead in TDs with seven. Anthony MacFarland Jr. has more attempts (76) but he averages 5.0 per-carry, also having scored seven TDs, as stated. Maryland averages 5.3 yards-per-carry and has 1,529 rushing yards and 20 TDs this season.
Though its rush attack falls just outside the top-40, it is a very potent one and if Maryland can turn its defense around in this game it could cover +21.5, but a SU victory is highly unlikely of course, even if Maryland plays to the best of its talents it is outclassed by the Wolverines at most skill positions and does not even compare defensively.
Maryland has had a rough time with the weaker opponents in the Big Ten, of which Michigan hardly is. The Terrapins will have trouble scoring against the Wolverine “D,” though Leake could experience decent success to at least prevent regular “three and outs.”
Expect this game to run close to the odds set, though there is some superficial value in the under on the point total (56).