Big Ten Betting Preview: Purdue Boilermakers at Ohio St Buckeyes

Purdue Boilermakers at #3 Ohio St Buckeyes
Value City Arena – Columbus, Ohio
Tuesday, February 7, 2012, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Ohio St -16
Current Line: Ohio St -14
Opening Total: 131
Current Total: 128
Opening Money Line: Ohio St -1400 / Purdue +900
Current Money Line: Ohio St -1300 / Purdue +850

Ohio St and Purdue battle in Columbus in a key Big Ten match-up Tuesday. The Buckeyes are 14 point favorites at home.

The 20-3 Ohio St Buckeyes are #3 in the country, and in first place in the Big Ten with an 8-2 record, a game ahead of 7-3 Michigan St. The Buckeyes have won 5 straight games including a 58-52 win at then #20 Wisconsin Saturday. Ohio St hosts 15-8 Purdue Tuesday night. The Boilermakers are 5-5 in the Big Ten, one of 3 teams 3 games behind the Buckeyes in the standings. Purdue has lost 3 of their last 4 games including 78-61 at home against Indiana Saturday. Purdue leads the overall series 83-82 against Ohio St, but the Buckeyes are 55-29 in Columbus. Purdue won last year’s meeting 76-63 in West Lafayette.

Purdue is coached by Matt Painter. The Boilermakers have wins over Northern Illinois, Iona, Temple, Western Michigan, Miami-FL, Eastern Michigan, Iowa twice, Illinois, Minnesota, and Northwestern. Purdue has losses to Alabama, Xavier, Butler, Penn St, Wisconsin, Michigan St, and Michigan.

Ohio St is coached by Thad Matta. The Buckeyes have wins over Wright St, Florida, Valparaiso, Duke, South Carolina, Miami-OH, Northwestern, Nebraska twice, Iowa, Indiana, Penn St, and Michigan. Ohio St has losses to Kansas, Indiana, and Illinois, all on the road by 11 points or less.

Purdue is outscoring opponents 70-64 this season. The Boilermakers shoot 42.9% from the field, including 34.7% from 3 point range. Purdue makes 63.2% of their free throws. The Boilermakers average 33.8 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of -1.2. Purdue averages 13.2 points, 9.1 turnovers, 7.3 steals, and 3.9 blocks a game. Boilermaker opponents are shooting 42.5% from the field including 36.2% from 3 point range. Purdue forces 14.2 turnovers a game.

Purdue forward Robbie Hummel averages 15.2 points, 6.32rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.3 blocks a game. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and blocks and is shooting 34.4% from 3 point range. Lewis Jackson averages 9.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists to lead the team, and 1.3 steals a game to tie for the team lead. Ryne Smith averages 9.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.1 assists. Smith shoots 41.1% from 3 point range. Kelsey Barlow averages 8.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.3 steals a game to lead the team. Terone Johnson averages 7.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.2 steals a game.

Ohio St is outscoring opponents 77-55 this season. Ohio St is 6th in points allowed in the country. The Buckeyes are shooting 49% from the field including 33% from 3 point range. Ohio St makes 69.1% of their free throws. The Buckeyes average 37 rebounds a game, and has a rebounding margin of +7.4. Ohio St averages 16 assists, 11.7 turnovers, 8 steals, and 2.9 blocks a game. Buckeye opponents are shooting 39.2% from the field, including 30.7% from 3 point range. Ohio St is forcing 17.5 turnovers a game, and opponents only average 9 assists a game.

Ohio St forward Jared Sullinger averages 17.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.5 steals a game. He leads the Buckeyes in scoring, rebounding and blocks, but he only averages 0.8 a game. Guard William Buford averages 14.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists a game. He is shooting 37.1% from 3 point range. Forward Deshaun Thomas averages 14.7 points and 4.4 rebounds a game. Thomas makes 32.9% of his 3 point shots. Point guard Aaron Craft averages 7.9 points, 3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 2.3 steals a game. He leads the team in  steals and assists.

Ohio St is 12-6 ATS and the total is 8-8-2 this season. Purdue is 9-11 ATS and the total is 10-10 this season. Ohio St is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 against Purdue, and 3-1-1 in Columbus in the last 5 meetings. The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS after a double digit home loss, 8-3 after failing to cover, 2-5 in Tuesday games, 1-5 against teams with winning records, overall, and in Big Ten games. The Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS at home, 5-0 overall, and in Big Ten games, 4-0 after a straight up win, after a cover, and against teams with winning records, and 19-9-1 in Tuesday games.

Ohio St is red hot having won 5 straight games. Until Saturday, all were by double digits. The Buckeyes seem to be rounding into shape for a Final Four run. Purdue is reeling right now. I think Ohio St covers the 14 point spread at home.

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