Big Ten Betting Preview: Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines

Purdue Boilermakers at #18 Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Stadium – Ann Arbor, Michigan
Saturday, October 29, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Michigan -14
Current Line: Michigan -14
Opening Total: 52 1/2
Current Total: 53
Opening Money Line: Michigan -500 / Purdue +400
Current Money Line: Michigan -500 / Purdue +400

The Michigan Wolverines are 14 point favorites at home against Purdue in Big Ten action.

Purdue and Michigan meet for the 57th time Saturday in a  series that dates back to 1890. Michigan leads the series 42-14, including 23-5 in Michigan Stadium. The Wolverines won last year 27-16 in West Lafayette to snap a 2 game winning streak for the Boilermakers against Michigan. Purdue is 4-3 this season under coach Danny Hope. Michigan is 6-1 under first year coach Brady Hoke and ranked #18 in the BCS standings. Both teams are 2-1 in the Big Ten, but the two teams are in separate divisions. Purdue has wins over Middle Tennessee 27-24, SE Missouri St 59-0, Minnesota 45-17, and last week against  Illinois 21-14. All four wins are at home, and the Boilermakers have alternated wins and losses this season. Purdue has losses at Rice 24-22, and Penn St 23-18, along with a home loss to Notre Dame 38-10. Michigan had won 6 in a row before a loss two weeks ago at in-state rival Michigan St 28-14. The Wolverines have home wins over Western Michigan 34-10, Notre Dame 35-31, Eastern Michigan 31-3, San Diego St 28-7, Minnesota 58-0, and at Northwestern 42-24.

Purdue was a 3 point underdog on the college football betting line last week at home against Illinois. The Boilermakers jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead, and held of an Illinois rally to pull off the upset 21-14. Purdue had 304 total yards and 15 first downs. Boilermaker quarterback Caleb TerBush threw for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns. No Purdue running back had more than 29 yards rushing but Raheem Mostert had a rushing touchdown. Receivers Justin Siller and Jared Crank each had touchdown receptions. Illinois had 366 total yards and 21 first downs. Each team had a turnover, and there were 14 total penalties.

Purdue is averaging 387 yards a game, including 195.1 rushing yards and 191.9 passing yards. The Boilermakers score 28.9 points a game. Purdue has 8 turnovers and has allowed 16 sacks this season. Purdue is 43/106 on third and fourth down conversions, and 26/29 scoring in the red zone with 20 touchd0wns. Purdue is allowing 351.7 yards a game, including 206.4 passing yards and 145.3 rushing yards. The Boilermakers are allowing 20 points a game. Purdue has forced 8 turnovers and 10 sacks this season. Purdue opponents are 45/115 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/18 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. Purdue has one defensive touchdown this season. Purdue averages just under 8 penalties a game for 62 yards.

Purdue has been playing all season without projected starting quarterback Rob Henry who tore his ACL in fall camp. TerBush has replaced him but Robert Marve also takes some snaps. TerBush is 103/167 passing for 1,127 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, along with 55 carries for 142 yards and one touchdown. Marve is 22/41 passing with 217 yards, 2 touchdowns and a pick, along with 5 carries for 9 yards. Running back Bolden has 82 carries, 398 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Akeem Shavers has 65 carries, 325 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 31 yards and a touchdown catch. Akeem Hunt and Mostert each have 2 rushing touchdowns. Receiver Antavian Edison has 23 catches for 359 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Justin Stiller has 28 catches for 284 yards and a touchdown. O.J. Ross has 22 catches for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Crank has only 2 catches, but both went for touchdowns.  Kicker Carson Wiggs is 23/24 on extra points and 9/14 on field goals with a long of 53 yards. Defensive end Robert Maci is out for the season with a broken foot. Tackle Justin Kitchens is questionable with a shoulder injury.

Michigan was a 3 point underdog two weeks ago at rival Michigan St. The game was tied at halftime 7-7, but the Spartans scored 14 third quarter points to take control of the game. Michigan scored to pull within 7, but a late interception return for a touchdown by the Spartans sealed the Wolverines fate 28-14. Michigan had only 250 total yards including just 82 rushing yards. The Wolverines had been averaging over 250 rushing yards a game before the Michigan St game. Wolverine quarterback Denard Robinson was 9/24 passing for 123 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. He only rushed for 42 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Robinson had rushed for over 100 yards in 4 of his previous 5 starts this season. Michigan St had 333 total yards including 213 rushing yards. The Spartans won despite having 13 penalties for 124 yards and 2 turnovers. Michigan had just the one turnover but it was costly.

Michigan is averaging 427.9 yards and 34.6 points a game. The Wolverines pass for 195.9 yards a game, but they have the #13 rushing offense in the country with 232 yards a game. The Wolverines have 12 turnovers this season and have allowed 9 sack. Michigan is 47/91 on third and fourth down conversions, and 27/30 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns. Michigan is allowing 336 yards and 14.7 points a game. The Wolverines are allowing only 190.7 passing yards and 145.3 rushing yards a game. Michigan has forced 19 turnovers and 11 sacks this season. Wolverine opponents are 39/99 on third and fourth down conversions, and 14/22 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. Michigan has 3 defensive touchdowns this season.

Robinson had been almost unstoppable this season until the Michigan St game. He is the leading passer and rusher for the Wolverines, with 1,871 combined yards, 20 total touchdowns, with 10 interceptions. Robinson is probable with a back injury.  Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint has 51 carries, 253 yards, and 2 scores. Vincent Smith has 35 carries, 240 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 104 yards and 2 scores. Six Wolverine receivers have a touchdown catch, and no one has more than 17 catches or 397 yards. Junior Hemingway (who is actually a senior) and Jeremy Gallon are the top two receivers for the Wolverines. Roy Roundtree and and Kevin Koger also get significant catches. Kicker Brendan Gibbons is 28/288 on extra points and 4/6 on field goals with a long of  38 yards.

Michigan is 5-2 against the spread this season and the total is 3-4 in those games. Purdue is 4-3 ATS this season the total is 3-2-2 this season. Purdue has covered the last 3 times against Michigan. The Wolverines are 1-9 ATS after a loss to conference rival, against teams with winning records, and after playing a conference game, 1-9 against teams with winning records, 4-1 as a favorite, at home, on turf, and following a bye week, 5-2 overall, 7-21 against teams with winning records, 6-10 following a straight up loss, 6-21 following a failure to cover, 2-7 in October, 4-22 in conference, and 1-7 in home game against teams with a winning road record. Purdue is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records, 5-1 in conference games, 4-1 as an underdog, and overall, 8-2 as a road dog of 10.5 points or more, 10-4-1 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, 5-2 as a road underdog, 10-23-1 in October, 2-6 after a bye week, 2-7-1 after a straight up win, and 0-4-1 on turf.

Michigan should find more running lanes against Purdue than they did against Michigan St. Purdue gives up 145 rushing yards a game which is number 56 in the country. If Michigan can run, their offense works much better than having to depend on Robinson throwing the ball.

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