Big Ten Betting Picks: #10 Maryland Terrapins at #20 Purdue Boilermakers

#10 Maryland Terrapins at #20 Purdue Boilermakers
Saturday, February 27, 2016, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Mackey Arena – West Lafayette, Indiana
Opening Line: Purdue -3 1/2
Current Line: Purdue -4 (-115)
Opening Total: 137 1/2
Current Total: 136 1/2
Opening Money Line: Purdue -175 / Maryland +155
Current Money Line: Purdue -185 / Maryland +165

Purdue hosts Maryland in a key Big Ten battle Saturday.
Purdue hosts Maryland in a key Big Ten battle Saturday.

In a late February battle of top 20 Big Ten teams, the 23-5 Maryland Terrapins travel to the 21-7 Purdue Boilermakers Saturday. Maryland is tied for second in conference at 11-4 with Iowa and both teams trail 13-3 Indiana with only a handful of games left in the regular season. Purdue is alone in 8th at 9-6. Both teams are expected to be top five seeds in the NCAA tournament next month.

Maryland is 2-0 all-time against Purdue with both meetings coming since the Terrapins joined the Big Ten last season. The Terrapins won at home 72-61 three weeks ago.

Maryland is coached by Mark Turgeon. The Terrapins have road losses at North Carolina, Michigan, Michigan State and Minnesota, plus a home loss to Wisconsin. The Terrapins have home wins over Georgetown, Cleveland State, Princeton, Marshall, Penn State, Rutgers, Ohio State, Northwestern Iowa, Purdue and Michigan 86-82 last Sunday. The Michigan win snapped a two game losing streak for the Terrapins. Maryland has neutral site wins over Illinois State and Rhode Island in a tournament in Cancun, and Connecticut in New York City. The Terrapins have road wins over Northwestern, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Nebraska. Maryland is 12-15 ATS and the total is 10-16-1 this season. The Terrapins were 9.5 point favorites against Michigan and the total was 139.

Purdue is coached by Matt Painter. The Boilermakers have a neutral site loss to Butler in Indianapolis, a home loss to Iowa, plus road losses to Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan and Indiana 77-73 last Saturday. Purdue has neutral site wins over Old Dominion and Florida in a tournament in Connecticut. The Boilermakers have home wins over Lehigh, New Mexico, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Northwestern. Purdue has road wins at Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Rutgers and Minnesota. The Boilermakers are 13-11 ATS and the total is 11-13 this season. Purdue was a 4.5 point underdog against Indiana and the total was 147.

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Maryland is outscoring teams 76-65 this season. The Terrapins are #33 in points allowed naturally. Maryland is shooting 49.1% from the field and 36.1% from 3 point range. The Terps are #11 in field goal percentage. Maryland is #11 nationally in free throw shooting at 75.9% from the line. Opponents are shooting 39.9% from the field and 30.5% from three point range. The Terrapins are in the top 40 nationally in both categories. Maryland averages 37.1 rebounds a game and opponents average 28.9 per game. The Terps are #31 nationally in rebounds allowed. Maryland averages 13.9 assists, 13.3 turnovers, 5.8 steals and 5.8 blocks per game. Opponents average 11.1 assists, 11.3 turnovers, 6.5 steals and 2.8 blocks per game.

Guard Melo Trimble averages 14 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Forward Robert Carter averages 12.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1 steal and 1.4 blocks per game. Diamond Stone averages 12.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game. Jake Layman averages 10.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Rasheed Sulaimon averages 11.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. Jared Nickens, Damonte Dodd, Michal Cekovsky and Jaylen Brantley will also get minutes in the rotation. Guard Dion Wiley is out for the season with a knee injury.

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Purdue is outscoring teams 77-64 this season. The Boilermakers are #20 nationally in points allowed. Purdue is shooting 46% from the field and 36% from 3 point range. The Boilermakers make 74% of their free throws and are #39 nationally. Opponents are shooting 38.7% from the field and 31.1% from three point range. The Boilermakers are #28 or better in both categories nationally. Purdue averages 41.8 rebounds per game and opponents average 27.5. The Boilermakers are in the top 10 nationally in both categories. Purdue averages 17.3 assists, 12.3 turnovers, 4.5 steals and 4.9 blocks per game. Opponents average 12 assists, 9.8 assists, 6.2 steals and 3 blocks per game.

Forward A.J. Hammons averages 14.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1 assist and 2.6 blocks per game. Vince Edwards averages 10.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3 assists per game. Isaac Haas averages 10 points and 4 rebounds per game. Caleb Swanigan averages 9.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. Rapheal Davis averages 8.8 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2 assists per game. Kendall Stephens, P.J. Thompson, Johnny Hill, Dakota Mathias, and Ryan Cline will also get minutes in the rotation.

Maryland is 20-7-1 ATS in Saturday games, 2-5 after a straight up win, 1-4 in road games, overall and in Big Ten games.

Purdue is 7-3 ATS against teams with winning road records, 15-7 after a straight up loss, 1-4 after a cover, against teams with winning records, overall and against Big Ten teams.

Maryland has struggled on the road in Big Ten play. Many thought Maryland would compete for a national title and they still might in a wide open year. Purdue is no slouch either and I like the Boilermakers to win a close low scoring game at home.

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