Big Ten Basketball Picks: Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers

#13 Michigan Wolverines at #12 Indiana Hoosiers
Assembly Hall – Bloomington, Indiana
Thursday, January 5, 2012, 9:00 Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Indiana -7 1/2
Current Line: Indiana -7 1/2
Opening Total: 139 1/2
Current Total: 139
Opening Money Line: Indiana -300 / Michigan +250
Current Money Line: Indiana -350 / Michigan +290

Cody Zeller and the Indiana Hoosiers host the Michigan Wolverines Thursday night in a crucial Big Ten battle. The Hoosiers are 7.5 point favorites.

After three years of rebuilding under coach Tom Crean the Indiana Hoosiers are back to national relevance. The Hoosiers are 13-1 overall and 1-1 in Big Ten play and ranked #12 in the country. Indiana takes on #13 Michigan in Bloomington Thursday night. The Wolverines 12-2 overall and 2-0 in the Big Ten.

Michigan is coached by John Beilein. The Wolverines have losses to Duke in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational and at Virginia in the first game back from Hawaii. Michigan has won 7 straight games since then. The Wolverines have wins over Memphis and UCLA in Maui, Iowa St, Oakland, Bradley, Penn St, and Minnesota last Sunday 61-56.

Indiana lost the Big Ten opener at Michigan St 80-65 last week, but rebounded  last Saturday by upsetting #2 Ohio St at home 74-70. The Hoosiers have additional wins over Evansville, Butler, NC State, Kentucky, and Notre Dame. Indiana leads the overall series against Michigan 100-55, including 62-12 in Bloomington. The two split the series last season with each winning on their own home court.

Michigan is outscoring opponents 71-60 this season. The Wolverines are shooting 48.1% from the field, including 36.6% from 3 point range. Michigan makes 68.7% of their free throws. The Wolverines average 33.9 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +3.2. Michigan averages 14.6 assists, 12.1 turnovers, 4.8 steals, and 2.8 blocks a game. Wolverine opponents are shooting 40% from the field, and 33.5% from 3 point range. Michigan forces 13.4 turnovers a game.

Michigan guard Tim Hardaway, Jr. averages 15.6 points, 3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists a game. He also has the shooting ability of his famous father, making 29.5% of his 3 point attempts. Trey Burke averages 14 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 5 assists a game to lead the team. He makes 36.5% of his three point attempts. Evan Smotrycz averages 10.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. He leads the Wolverines in rebounds and steals. He is shooting 54.5% from 3 point range. Zack Novak averages 9.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and shoots 38% from 3 point range. Forward Jon Horford leads the team in blocks with 1  game, but he is out indefinitely with a foot injury.

Indiana is outscoring opponents 83-62 this season. The Hoosiers are shooting 50.2% from the field, and 44.7% from 3 point range. The Hoosiers are in the top six nationally in points, field goal percentage and 3 point percentage.  Indiana makes 73.3% of their free throws. The Hoosiers average 35.6 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +3.2. Indiana averages 15.1 assists, 12.9 points, 8.9 steals, and 3.5 blocks a game. Indiana opponents are shooting  40.2% from the field and 31.1% from 3 point range. The Hoosiers force17.4 turnovers a game on defense.

Indiana has 5 players averaging double digit scoring. Freshman forward Cody Zeller averages 14.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.9 steals, and 1.4 blocks a game. He leads Indiana in scoring rebounds, blocks, and is tied for the team lead in steals. Christian Watford averages 12.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks a game. He makes 50% from 3 point range. Victor Oladipo averages 12.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.9 steals a game to tie for the team lead. Jordan Hulls average 11.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists to lead the team, and 1.1 steals a game. He makes 54.4% of his three point attempts. Will Sheehey averages 10.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. He has missed the last 3 games with an ankle injury and is doubtful for this game. Maurice Creek is out for the season with a torn Achilles’ tendon.

Indiana is 8-1 against the spread and the total is 6-3 this season. Michigan is 6-5 ATS and the total is 8-2-1 this year. Indiana is 13-3 ATS against Michigan in the last 16 meetings, and 4-0 at home. Five of the last six games in the series have gone over. The Wolverines 5-0 ATS after a cover, 4-0 as a road underdog of between 7 and 12.5 points, 9-2 in road games, and as a road dog, 13-3 in Big Ten games, 8-2 in road games against teams with winning home records, 20-6 overall, 16-5 in Thursday games, 25-8 as an underdog, 19-7 against teams with winning records, 15-6 in road games after 3 or consecutive home games, and 13-6 after a straight up win. The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS as a favorite, and at home, 4-0 after a cover, 8-1 overall, 7-1 after a straight up win, 6-1 against teams with winning records, 2-5 in Thursday games, and 1-7 in Big Ten games.

Michigan has only won 12 games in history in Bloomington. I don’t see that changing, but it isn’t often that Michigan and Indiana have successful seasons in the same year. Indiana needs this game more, because they already have a conference loss.

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