Big !2 College Basketball Wagering Picks: #19 Baylor Bears at #12 Iowa State Cyclones

#19 Baylor Bears at #12 Iowa State Cyclones
Hilton Coliseum – Ames, Iowa
Wednesday, February 25, 2015, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Iowa State -6

Current Line: Iowa State -6 1/2
Opening Total: 144 1/2
Current Total: 144
Opening Money Line: Iowa State -260 / Baylor +215
Current Money Line: Iowa State -300 / Byalor +250

America East Tournament Preview
Iowa State hosts Baylor is a key Big 12 match-up Wednesday night.

Five Big 12 teams are ranked in the top 25 as we approach the end of the regular season. The regular season conference title is still up for grabs with those 5 teams in contention. Two of those teams meet Wednesday as the 20-6 Iowa State Cyclones host the 20-7 Baylor Bears. The Cyclones can tie Kansas for first place in the conference at 11-4 with a win against Baylor. The Bears are 8-6 and in fifth place behind 10-5 West Virginia and Oklahoma. Baylor still has an outside shot of winning the regular season title but must get a lot of help. –

Iowa State leads the series 17-11 against Baylor, including 12-0 in Ames. Baylor beat Iowa State earlier this season 74-73 in Waco January 14. The Bears led by as many as 19 in that game but held on for the one point win. Iowa State beat Baylor in the Big 12 tournament championship game last season in Kansas City.

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Baylor is coached by Scott Drew. The Bears have losses to Illinois in Las Vegas, road losses at Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Kansas and home losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State. Baylor has won 2 straight games. Baylor has road wins at South Carolina, Vanderbilt,  TCU, West Virginia and Texas Tech ,  a neutral site win over Memphis in Las Vegas, and home wins over Stephen F. Austin, Texas Southern, Texas A&M, New Mexico State, Iowa State Oklahoma, Texas, TCU and Kansas State 69-42 Saturday. Baylor is 11-9-1 ATS and the total is 10-10-1 this season. The Bears were 8.5 point favorites against Kansas State and the total was 125.

Iowa State is coached by Fred Hoiberg. The Cyclones have neutral site losses to Maryland in Kansas City and South Carolina in Brooklyn, plus road losses at Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma. The Cyclones are  14-0 at home this season. Iowa State has won 3 straight games overall. The Cyclones have home wins over Oakland, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia, neutral site wins over Alabama in Kansas City and Drake in Des Moines, plus road wins over Iowa, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas 85-77 Saturday. Iowa State is 13-10 ATS and the total is 12-9 this season. The Cyclones were 3 point underdogs at Texas and the total was 145.5.

Baylor is outscoring teams 69-59 this season. The Bears are #19 nationally in points allowed. Baylor is shooting 43.2% from the field and 37.3% from 3 point range. The Bears make 66.7% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 39.3% from the field and 28.8% from 3 point range. The Bears are #32 in field goal defense and #10 in 3 point defense nationally. Baylor averages 40.9 rebounds per game and opponents average 28.1 per game. The Bears are #4 nationally in rebounding. Baylor averages 15 assists, 12.8 turnovers, 7.5 steals and 4.1 blocks per game. Opponents average 14.7 assists, 12.1 turnovers, 6.6 steals and 4 blocks per game.

Forward Taureen Prince averages 13.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.4 steals and 1 block per game. Kenny Chery averages 11.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Rico Gathers averages 11.2 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game. Royce O’Neale averages 9.8 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. Johnathan Motley averages 8.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. Lester Medford averages  8.1 points, 1.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Al Freeman, Deng Deng, and Ishmail Wainwright will also get minutes in the rotation.

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Iowa State is outscoring teams 80-69 this season. The Cyclones are #9 nationally in scoring. Iowa State is shooting 48.6% from the field and 36.5% from 3 point range. The Cyclones are #12 nationally in field goal percentage. ISU makes 68.5% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 41.8% from the field and 34.9% from 3 point range. Iowa State averages 36.5 rebounds per game and opponents average 31 per game. The Cyclones average 16.9 assists, 11.3 turnovers, 6.1 steals and 3.9 blocks per game. Opponents average 14.7 assists, 13.2 turnovers, 5.8 steals and 3.2 blocks per game.

Georges Niang averages 14.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. Bryce Dejean-Jones averages 12.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Naz Long averages 11.2 assists, 2.8 rebounds and 1.9 assists. Monte Morris averages 10.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Dustin Hogue averages 10.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. Jameel McKay averages 10.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game.

Baylor is 6-1 ATS after allowing less than 50 points, 1-3-1 in road games, and against teams with winning home records, and 1-5 in Wednesday games, The over is 6-2 in the last 8 games in this series.

Iowa State is 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records, overall and against Big 12 teams, 6-2 in Wednesday games and 20-9 against teams with winning road records. The home team is 13-3 ATS in this series recently. The favorite is 6-2 in the series in the last 8 games. Iowa state has covered 6 of the last 7 games against Baylor overall and the last 9 games in Ames against the Bears.

This is a match-up of Baylor’s top 20 defense against Iowa State’s top 10 defense. Baylor can play with anyone because of their suffocating defense, but Iowa State is very tough at home. The “Hilton Magic” will be the difference as Iowa State wins.

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