Big 12 Quarterfinals Betting Preview: #21 Iowa State Cyclones vs #6 Oklahoma Sooners

2016 Big 12 Tournament – Quarterfinals
#6 Iowa State Cyclones vs #3 Oklahoma Sooners
Thursday, March 10, 2016, 9:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Sprint Center – Kansas City, Missouri
Opening Line: Oklahoma -3
Current Line: Oklahoma -3 1/2
Opening Total: 162 1/2
Current Total: 161
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -160 / Iowa State +140
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -175 / Iowa State +155

Oklahoma is favored against Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
Oklahoma is favored against Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals.

The Big 12 is widely considered to be the strongest conference in college basketball with seven teams in the top 30 of the RPI. Even before the pairings were decided for the Big 12 tournament, there were going to be some great match-ups in the quarterfinals. The last quarterfinal of the night in Kansas City matches the #3 seed Oklahoma Sooners and #6 seed Iowa State Cyclones. Oklahoma is 24-6 and 12-6 in the Big 12. Iowa State is 21-10 and tied for fifth with Baylor at 10-8 in conference. The winner between Oklahoma and Iowa State will play either #2 seed West Virginia or #10 TCU in the semifinals Friday.

Oklahoma leads the series 114-85 against Iowa State, and the series is tied at 13-13 in neutral site contests. The teams split the season series with each winning at home. Oklahoma won in Norman 87-83 January 2 and Iowa State returned the favor in Ames 82-77 January 18.

Oklahoma is coached by Lon Kruger. The Sooners have road losses at Kansas in triple overtime, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Texas, plus a home loss to Kansas. Oklahoma has won two straight games, but has gone 5-4 down the stretch. The Sooners have neutral site wins over Villanova, Washington State, Hawaii and Harvard all in Hawaii. Oklahoma has road wins at Memphis, Oklahoma State, Baylor, LSU, West Virginia and TCU 75-67 Saturday, along with home wins over Wisconsin, Oral Roberts, Creighton, Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Texas, Oklahoma State and Baylor. Oklahoma is 12-16 ATS and the total is 13-15 this season. The Sooners were 12.5 point favorites against TCU and the total was 146.

Iowa State is coached by Steve Prohm. The Cyclones have a neutral site loss to Northern Iowa in Des Moines, plus road losses at Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas 85-78 Saturday, and home losses to Baylor and West Virginia. Iowa State has neutral site wins over Colorado in Sioux Falls, SD, Virginia Tech and Illinois in a tournament in Niceville, Florida. Iowa State has home wins over North Dakota State, Buffalo, Iowa, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, TCU, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. The Cyclones also have road wins over Cincinnati, Kansas State, TCU and Oklahoma State. The Cyclones were 11 point underdogs against Kansas and the total was 156.5. Iowa State is 14-13-1 ATS and the total is 13-14-1 this season.

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Oklahoma is outscoring teams 81-70 this season. The Sooners are #22 in scoring nationally. Oklahoma is shooting 45.8% from the field and 43% from three point range. The Sooners are #2 in three point shooting nationally. Oklahoma makes 72.7% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 40.3% from the field and 33.4% from three point range. The Sooners are #39 nationally in field goal defense. Oklahoma averages 39.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 32.7 per game. The Sooners average 14.9 assists, 12.7 turnovers, 6.9 steals and 5.2 blocks per game. Opponents average 10.6 assists, 12.5 turnovers, 7 steals and 3.3 blocks per game.

Guard Buddy Hield is one of the favorites for national player of the year. He averages 25.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Isaiah Cousins averages 13 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Jordan Woodard averages 12.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Ryan Spangler averages 10.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. Khadeem Lattin averages 5.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. Dinjiyl Walker and Dante Buford will also get minutes.

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Iowa State is outscoring teams 82-75. The Cyclones are #15 in scoring nationally. Iowa State is shooting 50.3% from the field and 38% from 3 point range. The Cyclones are #2 in field goal shooting nationally. ISU makes 70.1% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 43.3% from the field and 33.9% from 3 point range. Iowa State averages 36.1 rebounds per game and opponents average 33.2. The Cyclones average 16.8 assists, 11.4 turnovers, 6.3 steals and 4.2 blocks per game. Opponents average 14.4 assists, 12.7 turnovers, 5.5 steals and 2.7 blocks per game.

Georges Niang averages 19.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. Monte Morris averages 14.3 points, 4 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Abdel Nader averages 13.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Jameel McKay averages 11.5 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.8 blocks per game. Nazareth Mitrou-Long averaged 12 points a game but is out for the season with a hip injury. Matt Thomas averages 10.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. Deonte Burton and Hallice Cook will also get minutes in the rotation.

Iowa State is 0-4 ATS after a cover. The Cyclones have covered the last games against the Sooners. The under is 6-2 in this series recently.

Oklahoma is 7-19 ATS against Big 12 teams, 2-7 overall, 1-4 after a straight up win, 1-5 after failing to cover, and 1-7 against teams with winning records. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in this series recently.

Oklahoma was the #1 team in the country in January for several weeks. However, they have been inconsistent, and have potentially fallen from a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament to a #2 seed. Oklahoma lives and dies by the three point shot. If they are falling, then the Sooners are an elite team capable of winning the national title. If they aren’t then Oklahoma can be beaten. Iowa State is looking for their third straight Big 12 Tournament championship. This will be a close game, but I think the Sooners pull it out in the end.

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