Big 12 College Football Preview Week 10: Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns

Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns
Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, Texas

Saturday, November 2, 2013, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Longhorn Network
Opening Line: Texas -27
Current Line: Texas -28
Opening Total: 52 1/2
Current Total: 52
Opening Money Line: Texas -4500 / Kansas +1866
Current Money Line: Texas -6500 / Kansas +1714

Texas is a 28 point favorite at home against Kansas Saturday.
Texas is a 28 point favorite at home against Kansas Saturday.

The Texas Longhorns and Kansas Jayhawks have had exact opposite tracks this season. Texas started off the season 1-2 but has won 4 straight games to go 5-2 and 4-0 in the Big 12. The Longhorns are tied for first in the Big 12 with Baylor. Kansas started off the season 2-1 but has lost 4 straight games to fall to 2-5. The Jayhawks are 0-4 in the Big 12 and tied for last in the conference with Iowa State as Kansas travels to Texas Saturday. Texas leads the series 10-2 against Kansas and has won all 10 games since the teams became conference rivals in the mid-90’s. The Longhorns won last season in Lawrence 21-17.

Kansas is coached by Charlie Weis. The Jayhawks have home wins over South Dakota 31-14 and Louisiana Tech 13-10. Kansas has road losses at Rice 23-14, and TCU 27-17, along with home losses to Texas Tech 54-16, Oklahoma 34-19 and last week against Baylor 59-14. The Jayhawks are 2-5 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season. Kansas was a 34.5 point underdog at home against Baylor and the total was 66.

Baylor jumped out to a 45-0 lead in the third quarter against Kansas last week. The Bears would cruise to a 59-14 victory. On the bright side Kansas became only the second team this season to hold Baylor under 69 points. The Bears had 743 total yards including 437 passing and 306 rushing yards. The Jayhawks had 308 total yards including both 154 rushing and passing yards. Kansas had 9 penalties for 80 yards and a turnover. Baylor had two turnovers.

Kansas is being outscored 32-18 this season. The Jayhawks are #91 in points allowed and #115 in scoring out of 125 FBS teams. Kansas is averaging 290.9 total yards per game (#119 nationally) including 157.3 passing (#114) and 133.6 rushing yards (#99). On defense, the Jayhawks are allowing 450.7 yards per game (#101) including 246.9 passing (#89) and 203.9 rushing yards (#100). Kansas is +4 in turnovers with 16 takeaways. The Jayhawks average 61 penalty yards per game and opponents average  45. Kansas is 34/123 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/111. The Jayhawks have forced 14 sacks and allowed 20 this season. Kansas is 12/17 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns and opponents are 27/32 with 17 touchdowns. The Jayhawks have one pick six and a blocked punt for a touchdown and have also allowed one of each as well.

Kansas quarterback Jake Heaps has completed 50% of his passes for 988 yards with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, plus a rushing touchdown. Running back James Sims has 129 carries for 589 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 81 yards. Darrian Miller has 58 carries for 255 yards, along with 2 catches. Brandon Bourbon has only 15 carries for 99 yards but has 2 rushing touchdowns, along with 18 catches for 95 yards. Running back Tony Pierson has 21 catches, 327 yards and a touchdown, plus 12 carries for 80 yards. He is doubtful with a concussion after missing the last 3 games. Tight end Jimmay Mundine has 15 catches for 173 yards and 4 touchdowns. Three linebackers are listed on the Kansas injury report.

Texas is coached by Mack Brown. The Longhorns have losses at BYU 40-21 and at home to Ole Miss 44-23. Texas has home wins over New Mexico State 56-7, Kansas State 31-21, Oklahoma 36-20 (in Dallas), along with road wins at Iowa State 31-30 and last week at TCU 30-7. Texas is 4-3 ATS and the total is 4-3 as well. The Longhorns were 3 point underdogs at TCU and the total was 49.

The Texas-TCU game was delayed for more than 3 hours in the second quarter due to rain and lightning in the Forth Worth area. Texas took a 10-7 lead in the first quarter. The Longhorns expanded the lead to 20-7 by halftime. Texas would add 10 points in the second half to make the final 30-7. Texas had 415 total yards including 187 rushing yards. TCU had 246 total yards including 201 passing yards. The two teams combined for 14 penalties for 136 yards and 5 turnovers.

Texas is outscoring teams 33-24 this season The Longhorns are averaging 450.7 yards per game on offense, including 250.3 passing and 200.4 rushing yards. On defense Texas is allowing 405.4 yards per game including 202.7 passing and  202.7 rushing yards. Texas is #20 in pass defense and #98 against the run out of 125 teams. The Longhorns are +7 in turnovers with 16 takeaways. Texas is 51/124 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 48/121. The Longhorns are   17/19 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns and opponents are 22/25 with 14 touchdowns. Texas has forced 18 sacks and allowed 9 this season. The Longhorns are averaging 47 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 71 penalty yards per game. Texas has a pick six and a punt return for a touchdown this season and has also allowed a pick six and a punt return for a touchdown.

Quarterback David Ash has completed 60.9% of his passes for 760 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 31 carries, 152 yards and a touchdown. He left the BYU game in the fourth quarter with head and shoulder injuries. Ashe missed the Ole Miss game but returned against Kansas State. He left at halftime after aggravating the concussion, and hasn’t played since. He is listed as questionable Saturday. Back-up Case McCoy has played decently since the injury to Ash. McCoy has completed 59.2% of his passes for 992 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown.

Running back Johnathan Gray has 133 carries, 656 yards and 4 touchdowns, and also has 13 catches for 50 yards. Malcolm Brown has 64 carries, 234 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 8 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown.  Joe Bergeron has 30 carries, 162 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 3 catches. Jalen Overstreet has 10 carries, 89 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out for the season. Running back Daje Johnson has 19 carries 103 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches for 93 ayrds and a touchdown. He also has a punt return for a touchdown. Receiver Jaxon Shipley has 33 catches for 368 yards. Receiver Mike Davis has 29 catches, 385 yards and 5 scores. Kendall Sanders has 26 catches, 273 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Johnson and John Harris each have two touchdown catches.

Kansas is 7-18-1 ATS after a double digit home loss, 5-16-1 in road games, 2-7 against teams with winning home records, a straight up loss by 20 points or more, and overall, 1-4 after failing to cover, against teams with winning records, 1-4 after allowing 200 rushing yards, after allowing 280 passing yards, and after passing for 170 yards or less, 1-5 after allowing 450 yards or more, and 1-7 on fieldturf.

Texas is 6-1 ATS after allowing 275 yard or less, and 1-4 against teams with winning records. The home team is 6-1 ATS in this series recently. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in this series recently. The Longhorns are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 against the Jayhawks including 5-0 in Austin.

Ash could come back Saturday from his concussion but with McCoy not making as many of the mistakes that plagued his career and the running game clicking so well, I don’t see Brown bringing him back unless the game is a blowout. That is a very good possibility as Kansas is terrible. Sure, the Jayhawks had “moral victories” the last two games against Oklahoma and Baylor, but that was at home. The Jayhawks have to go to Austin and it won’t be pretty. Texas rolls against Kansas Saturday.

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