#22 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday, October 1, 2016, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Boone Pickens Stadium – Stillwater, Oklahoma
Opening Line: Oklahoma State -3 1/2
Current Line: Oklahoma State -2 1/2 (-115)
Opening Total: 70 (over -123)
Current Total: 70 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma State -150 / Texas +130
Current Money Line: Oklahoma State -140 / Texas +120
The 2-2 Oklahoma State Cowboys host the 2-1 Texas Longhorns Saturday in a key Big 12 contest. The Cowboys are 0-1 in conference while this is the first Big 12 game for the Longhorns. Texas leads the series 24-6 against Oklahoma State and has won 8 straight games in Stillwater. The visiting team has won 7 straight games in this series, including a 30-27 OSU victory last year in Austin.
Texas is coached by Charlie Strong. The Longhorns have home wins over Notre Dame 50-47 in double overtime and UTEP 41-7. Two weeks ago Texas lost at California 50-43. The Longhorns were 7.5 point favorites against Cal and the total was 79.5. Texas is 2-1 ATS and the total is 2
Oklahoma State is coached by Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have home wins over SE Louisiana 61-7 and Pittsburgh 45-38. The Cowboys lost at home to Central Michigan 30-27 on a controversial Hail Mary on the last play of the game and last week lost at Baylor 35-24. The Cowboys had 1st and goal inside the Baylor five twice in the fourth quarter when trailing by four points and did not score a point either time. Oklahoma State was a 7 point underdog against Baylor and the total was 73.5. The Cowboys are 2-2 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season.
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Texas is outscoring teams 45-35 this season. Texas is #12 in scoring but #106 in points allowed nationally. The Longhorns average 500 yards per game on offense including 262 passing and 238 rushing yards. Texas is #44 or better in all three categories and is in the top 25 nationally in total and rushing offense. On defense, the Longhorns allow 386 yards per game including 236 passing and 151 rushing yards per game. Texas is -3 in turnovers with 4 giveaways. The Longhorns average 90 penalty yards and opponents average 71 per game. Texas is 21/48 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 18/48. The Longhorns have forced 11 sacks and allowed 6 this season. Texas is 15/16 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns, and opponents are 8/10 with 7 touchdowns.
Freshman quarterback Shane Buechele has completed 66.3% of his passes for 720 yards and 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 22 carries for 66 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a chest injury. Tyrone Swoopes comes in for a few snaps in the big 18-Wheeler package. He has thrown for 66 yards and an interception, but has 21 carries for 88 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
Running back D’onta Foreman has 45 carries for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns. Chris Warren III has 52 carries for 260 yards and 3 touchdowns. Running backs Kirk Johnson and Roderick Bernard are both out indefinitely with knee injuries.
Receiver John Burt has 12 catches for 175 yards and a touchdown. Jacorey Warrick has 13 catches for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns. Former quarterback Jerrod Heard has 10 catches for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns. Armanti Foreman has 10 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown. Jake Oliver has 9 catches for 92 yards.
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Oklahoma State is outscoring teams 39-28 this season. The Cowboys average 466 yards per game on offense including 339 passing and 126 rushing yards per game. Oklahoma State is #11 in passing but #107 in rushing nationally. On defense, OSU is allowing 418 yards per game including 273 yards and 145 rushing yards. The Cowboys are even in turnovers with 8 takeaways. Oklahoma State averages 46 penalty yards per game and opponents average 63 per game. The Cowboys have converted 28/64 on third and fourth downs and opponents are 21/64. OSU has forced 9 sacks and allowed 14 this season. The Cowboys are 17/22 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns, and opponents are 6/8 with 5 touchdowns.
Quarterback Mason Rudolph has thrown for 1,296 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Back-up Taylor Cornelius took a few snaps in the blowout of SE Louisiana and has a rushing touchdown.
While the rushing game has improved somewhat from a dismal 2015, it is still a little too inconsistent. Justice Hill has 44 carries for 211 yards and a touchdown. Rennie Childs has 32 carries for 158 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 2 catches. Chris Carson is out indefinitely with a hand injury. He has 12 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches.
Receiver James Washington has 25 catches for 488 yards and 3 touchdown. Jalen McCleskey has 23 catches for 224 yards and a touchdown. Jhajuan Seales has 15 catches for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Marcell Ateman is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Dillon Stoner is out for the season with a foot injury.
Texas is 3-8 ATS after allowing 450 total yards or more, and 3-9 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 3-10 after scoring more than 40 points, and 1-5 in road games. The road team is 9-0 ATS in this series recently. The Longhorns have covered the last four trips to Stillwater.
Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS after rushing for 200 yards or more, 24-9-1 in October, 3-8 after a straight up loss, 2-6 overall, 1-5 against teams with winning records, and 0-4 in Big 12 games. The under is 4-1-1 in this series recently but five of the last six games in this series have gone over in Stillwater. The favorite is 14-3 ATS in this series recently.
This should be a shootout as neither defense is very good and the two offenses score a ton of points. Both teams need to cut down on the turnovers. I think Texas is a better team and wins a close game on the road to extend the trend of the visiting team winning this game.