Big 12 College Football Picks: Kansas State Wildcats at #20 Oklahoma State Cowboys

Kansas State Wildcats at #20 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Boone Pickens Stadium – Stillwater, Oklahoma
Saturday, October 3, 2015, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: Oklahoma State -5 1/2
Current Line: Oklahoma State -7
Opening Total: 51
Current Total: 49
Opening Money Line: OSU -310 / K-State +250
Current Money Line: OSU -300 / K-State +240

 

Oklahoma State is a touchdown favorite against Kansas State Saturday in Stillwater.
Oklahoma State is a touchdown favorite against Kansas State Saturday in Stillwater.

The 4-0 Oklahoma State Cowboys host the 3-0 Kansas State Wildcats Saturday afternoon. The Cowboys lead the series 37-24 against the Wildcats including 20-9 in Stillwater. Kansas State won last year’s meeting 48-14 in Manhattan. This series dates back to 1908.

Kansas State is coached by Bill Snyder. The Wildcats have home wins over South Dakota 34-0 and two weeks ago against Louisiana Tech 39-33. K-State also has a road win at Texas-San Antonio 30-3. The Wildcats had a bye last week. Louisiana Tech took a 13-6 lead in the third quarter and would also lead 20-13 in the fourth. The Wildcats took a 23-20 lead with 2:44 left. The Bulldogs drove down the field and kicked a 45 yard field goal as time expired to send the game into overtime. The two teams traded touchdowns in the first overtime and field goals in the second overtime. In the third overtime, Kansas State scored on a 31 yard touchdown pass from Joe Hubener to Kody Cook. The Wildcats missed the two point conversion, but Lousiana Tech would not gain a yard on their next possession. Kansas State escaped with a 39-33 win to the dismay of players who bet the under at 52. The Wildcats were 10 point favorites. Kansas State is 1-2 ATS and the total is 1-2 as well.

Oklahoma State is coached by Mike Gundy. The Cowboys opened the season with a 24-13 win at Central Michigan, followed by home wins over Central Arkansas 32-8 and UTSA 69-14. Last week, Oklahoma State traveled to Texas in the Big 12 opener for both schools. Texas scored 14 points off two defensive touchdowns. The Longhorns had a 27-24 lead with  about a minute and a half left. The Cowboys tied it up with a field goal. Texas took over deep in their own territory after a kickoff. The Longhorns botched a punt that went only 10 yards. OSU took over already in field goal range. The Cowboys kicked another field goal and won 30-27. OSU was a 2.5 point favorite and the total was 63. The Cowboys are 2-2 ATS and the total is 1-3.

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Kansas State is outscoring teams 34-12 this season. The Wildcats are #8 nationally in points allowed. Kansas State is averaging 368 total yards a game on offense including 195 passing and 173 rushing yards. The Wildcats are #95 in total offense and #94 in passing nationally out of 128 teams. On defense, K-State is allowing 315 total yards including 237 passing and 78 rushing yards. The Wildcats are #30 in total offense and #8 in rush defense. Kansas State has recovered three fumbles and lost two. The Wildcats have not thrown or made an interception this season. Kansas State averages 63 penalty yards per game and opponents average 48. The Wildcats are 18/42 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 18/58. KSU has forced 12 sacks and allowed 3 this season. The Wildcats are 16/18 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns and opponents are 5/7 with 3 touchdowns. Kansas State has a kick return for a touchdown this season.

Quarterback Joe Hubener has completed 53.7% of his passes for 585 yards with 4 touchdowns, along with 34 carries for 105 yards and a rushing touchdown.Back-up Jesse Ertz is out indefinitely with a knee injury.

Running back Justin Silmon has 36 carries for 210 yards and a touchdown, along with a catch. Charles Jones has 24 carries for 87 yards and a touchdown, along with 2 catches. Winston Dimel has 19 carries for 48 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 2 catches for 80 yards.

Receiver Kody Cook has 8 catches for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns. Deante Burton has 8 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. Dominique Heath has 8 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Stanton Weber is questionable for undisclosed reasons. Kicker Matthew McCrane is questionable with a leg injury.

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Oklahoma State is outscoring teams 39-16 this season. The Cowboys are #26 or better in both categories nationally. OSU averages 481 yards per game including 321 passing and 160 rushing yards. The Cowboys are in the top 28 nationally in passing and total offense. On defense, Oklahoma State is allowing 300 total yards per game, including 171 passing and 121 rushing yards. The Cowboys are in the top 40 nationally in all three categories. OSU is +4 in turnovers with 9 takeaways. Oklahoma State averages 46 penalty yards per game and opponents average 72. The Cowboys are 27/58 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 24/71. OSU has forced 16 sacks and allowed 9 this season. The Cowboys are 18/19 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns. Opponents are 7/9 with 4 touchdowns. The Cowboys have two defensive touchdowns and have allowed two as well this season.

Quarterback Mason Rudolph has completed 67.7% of his passes for 1,237 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and has a rushing touchdown. He needs to shake off a bad game against Texas, where he threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. He is probable with a hand injury.  J.W. Walsh has come in a few times in red zone and short yardage situations. He has three touchdown passes, and has 14 carries for 74 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns.

Running back Chris Carson has 65 carries for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 4 catches. Rennie Childs has 42 carries for 177 yards and a touchdown, plus 2 catches. Raymond Taylor has 3 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver David Glidden has 15 catches for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns. Marcell Ateman has 13 catches for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. James Washington has 12 catches for 155 yards. Jalen McCleskey has 5 catches for 113 yards. Brandon Sheperd, Jeremy Seaton, Jhajuan Seales, and Austin Hayes will also get some catches.

Kansas State is 21-5 ATS after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 7-2 on fieldturf, 15-5-1 against teams with winning home records, 19-7-1 against teams with winning records, 37-14-1 in Big 12 games, 7-3 after a straight up win, and after allowing 450 total yards or more, 35-15-1 in October, and 1-4 overall. The Wildcats have covered the last 4 games overall in this series and four of the last 5 in Stillwater.

Oklahoma State is 21-8-1 ATS in October, 5-2 overall, 11-5 after a straight up win, 39-18 after passing for over 280 yards, 15-7 at home, 3-7 against teams with winning records, and 2-6 on fieldturf. The last 4 games in this series have gone over the total and so have the last four in Stillwater between the teams.

As talented as Rudolph is, it is important to remember he is a true sophomore making only his 8th career start. He will make some mistakes like he did in Austin last week. The OSU  offense has a ton of talent at the skill positions but sometimes goes in the tank for long stretches. Kansas State struggles on offense too even more so than the Cowboys. I think the Wildcats keep it close in a low scoring game but I like OSU to come out on top in the end at home.

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