Big 12 College Football Betting Preview: #23 Oklahoma St Cowboys at Baylor Bears

#23 Oklahoma St Cowboys at Baylor Bears
Saturday, December 1, 2012, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: FX
Floyd Casey Stadium – Waco, Texas
Opening Line: Oklahoma St -4 1/2
Current Total: Oklahoma St -5
Opening Total: 86
Current Total: 87 1/2
Opening Money Line: OSU -215 / Baylor +185
Current Money Line: OSU -215 / Baylor +185

Oklahoma St travels to Baylor in the season finale for both teams. It should be a high scoring affair as both teams have explosive offenses and suspect defenses.

If you like hard fought, low scoring defensive struggles, then this Oklahoma St-Baylor game isn’t for you. However, if you like Arena Football type shootouts then this game is perfect for you. Both teams are already bowl eligible, and just trying to improve their standings in the Big 12.

Oklahoma St leads the series 18-12 against Baylor, including 6-5 in Waco. The Cowboys have beaten Baylor 6 straight times, and 17 out of the last 20 times they have played. OSU won 59-24 in Stillwater last year.

Oklahoma St is 5-3 in the Big 12, and 7-4 overall under coach Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have losses at Arizona 59-38, Kansas St 44-30, and last week at Oklahoma 51-48 in overtime and at home against Texas 41-36. OSU has home wins over Savannah St 84-0, Louisiana-Lafayette 65-24, Iowa St 31-10, TCU 36-14, West Virginia 55-34 and against Texas Tech 59-21. The Cowboys also have a 20-14 road win at Kansas. The Cowboys are 6-4 ATS and the total is 7-3 this season. OSU was a 6.5 point underdog against Oklahoma and the total was 70.

Oklahoma St is averaging 547.9 yards per game on offense, including 332.6 passing yards and 215.3 rushing yards. The Cowboys are outscoring teams 46-28 this season. OSU is int he top 10 nationally in total offense, passing, and scoring. Even the rushing attack is #20.  The Cowboys are -4 in turnovers with 20 giveaways. OSU is averaging 61.8 penalty yards per game and has allowed 10 sacks. The Cowboys are 79/168 on third and fourth down conversions, and 56/61 scoring in the red zone with 40 touchdowns. Oklahoma St is allowing 409.1 yards per game on defense, including 284.7 passing yards and 124.4 rushing yards. OSU is #117 out of 124 teams in pass defense, but #23 in rush defense.  The Cowboys have forced 22 sacks this season and 16 turnovers. OSU opponents are 77/208 on third and fourth down conversions, and 36/45 scoring in the red zone with 27 touchdowns. OSU has 3 special teams touchdowns this season.

Oklahoma St quarterback J.W. Walsh was reportedly out for the season but he returned unexpectedly two weeks against Texas Tech. He has passed for 1,469 yards with 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and also rushed for 259 yards and 5 touchdowns. Wes Lunt started the first three games of the season but  missed a few games with a knee injury. He was injured in the Kansas St game and Clint Chelf came in and did well. Chelf started the last three games, but Lunt was recovering from a concussion. Lunt is questionable against Baylor. Gundy hasn’t announced his starter yet, but all three could see action. Lunt is 80/128 passing (63.9%) for 1,096 yards with 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Chelf is 72/124 passing (58.1%) for 1,058 yards with 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 25 carries for 146 yards. It doesn’t seem to matter who the quarterback is, as all three have had success in the explosive offense.

Running back Joseph Randle has 234 carries, 1,212 yards and 14 touchdowns, along with 24 catches, for 201 yards. Desmond Roland has 4 rushing touchdowns, and Jeremy Smith has 7. Roland also has a kickoff return for a touchdown. Receiver Josh Stewart has 84 catches, 1007 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with a rushing touchdown. Blake Jackson has 25 catches, 528 yards and 2 touchdowns. Charlie Moore has 29 catches, 481 yards and 5 touchdowns. Isaiah Anderson has 16 catches for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Tracy Moore has 20 catches, 259 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. John Goodlett has only 5 catches, but two of them went for touchdowns. Five Cowboys are listed as out against Baylor.

Baylor is 3-5 in the Big 12 and 6-5 overall under coach Art Briles. The Bears have won 3 of their last 4 games after a 4 game losing streak. Baylor has home wins over SMU 59-24, Sam Houston St 48-23, Kansas 41-14 and then #1 Kansas St 52-24, along with a road win at Louisiana-Monroe 47-42. Last week, the Bears beat Texas Tech 52-45 in Arlington, Texas. Baylor has a home loss to TCU 49-21, along with road losses at  West Virginia 70-63, Texas 56-50, Iowa St 35-21, and at Oklahoma 42-34. Baylor is 7-4 ATS and the total is 8-2 this season. The Bears were 3.5 point favorites against Texas Tech and the total was 80.

Baylor is averaging 575.5 yards per game on offense, including 358.5 passing yards and 217 rushing yards. The Bears are #2 in total offense and #3 passing nationally. Baylor is outscoring teams 44-39 this season. The Bears are #5 in scoring nationally. Baylor is +4 in turnovers with 19 giveaways. The Bears are averaging 63 penalty yards per game and have allowed 17 sacks. Baylor is 89/179 on third and fourth down conversions, and 49/59 scoring in the red zone with 39 touchdowns. While the Baylor offense is among the best in the country, the defense is among the worst. The Bears are giving up 509.7 yards per game including 321.4 passing yards and 188.4 rushing yards. Baylor is 89th or worse in all defensive categories #123 out of 124 teams in total offense and #122 in pass defense. . The Bears have forced 13 sacks and 23 turnovers this season. Baylor opponents are 109/201 on third and fourth down conversions and 42/51 scoring in the red zone with 36 touchdowns.

Baylor quarterback Nick Florence has completed 253 of 412 passes (61.4%) for 3,825 yards with 30 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He also has 103 carries, 460 yards and 8 touchdowns. Running back Glasco Martin has 142 carries, 739 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jarred Salubi has 108 carries, 4437 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 44 yards. Lache Seastrunk has 99 carries, 696 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 9 catches, 107 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Terrance Williams has 89 catches, 1,693 yards and 12 touchdowns. Tevin Reese has 46 catches, 781 yards and 7 touchdowns. Lanear Sampson has 48 catches, 616 yards and 6 touchdowns. Levi Norwood has 32 catches for 406 yards and a receiving touchdown, along with a rushing touchdown. Four defensive players from an already terrible unit are listed as questionable or out.

Oklahoma St is 6-1 ATS after allowing more than 40 points, and gaining more than 450 total yards, 5-1 after a straight up loss, in Big 12 games, against teams with winning records, and overall, 13-3 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 4-1 in December, 21-7 after passing for 280 yards or more, 19-7 on fieldturf, 13-6 after scoring 40 points or more, 15-7 after a cover, 2-5 after rushing for 200 yards or more, and 1-4 in road games. The Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 games against Baylor, Including 5-2 in Waco. OSU was favored in each of those games. The under is 3-1-1 in this series recently.

Baylor is 4-0 ATS in Big 12 games, after gaining  more than 450 yards, overall, and on fieldturf, 11-2 at home, 5-1 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, and at home against teams with winning road records, 4-1 against teams with winning records, and after allowing more than 450 yards, 7-2 after a straight up win, 6-2 after allowing more than 40 points, and 7-3 after allowing more than 280 passing yards. The home team is 8-2 ATS in this series recently.

Both Oklahoma St and Baylor have two of most balanced offenses in the country. Along with Lousiana Tech and  Texas A&M, the Bears and Cowboys are the only teams to average over 300 passing yards and 200 rushing yards per game. Oklahoma St has a slightly better defense, but they aren’t good to put it mildly. This game should last about 4 hours or more, with tons of scoring. The 87.5 point total might seem a little high, as each team would have to score around 44 points. I could see both teams in the 50’s or 60’s. Oklahoma St wins in a shootout, but the last team to touch the ball on offense will win.

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