Big 12 College Football Betting Picks: Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers

Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers
Milan Puskar Stadium – Morgantown, West Virginia

Saturday, November 7, 2015, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: West Virginia -7 1/2
Current Line: West Virginia -8 1/2
Opening Total: 79
Current Total: 80
Opening Money Line: West Virginia -340 / Texas Tech +275
Current Money Line: West Virginia -330 / Texas Tech +270

West Virginia is an 8.5 point favorite against Texas Tech Saturday in Morgantown.
West Virginia is an 8.5 point favorite against Texas Tech Saturday in Morgantown.

The 5-4 Texas Tech Red Raiders and 3-4 West Virginia Mountaineers meet Saturday in Morgantown. Although neither team will compete for the Big 12 title, both are trying to get to six wins and become bowl eligible. The Red Raiders are in seventh place in the Big 12 at 2-4 and the Mountaineers are tied for eighth at 0-4 with Kansas State.

The series is tied 2-2 between Texas Tech and West Virginia. The Mountaineers won 37-34 last year in Lubbock.

Texas Tech is coached by Kliff Kingsbury. The Red Raiders have home losses to TCU 55-52 and last week against Oklahoma State 70-53, a road loss at Oklahoma 63-27, and a neutral site loss to Baylor 63-35 in Arlington. Texas Tech has home wins over Sam Houston State 59-45, UTEP 69-20, and Iowa State 66-31, plus road wins at Arkansas 35-24 and Kansas 30-20.

Texas Tech was a 2 point underdog against Oklahoma State and the total was 77.5. The Red Raiders took an early 17-0 lead and led 24-7 and 31-14 at various points in the first half. Texas Tech would take a 38-28 lead into halftime. Oklahoma State scored two third quarter touchdowns to take a 42-38 lead into the fourth. The two teams combined for 43 points in a wild fourth quarter. Texas Tech briefly took a 45-42 lead early in the quarter. However, two straight touchdowns by OSU put the Cowboys up 56-45. Texas Tech pulled within 56-53 with a touchdown and a two point conversion with 4:48 left. However, the Cowboys put the game away with 14 straight points, including a pick six with 6 seconds left. The two teams combined for over 1,300 total yards. The Red Raiders had three turnovers and the Cowboys had one. Texas Tech is 4-4-1 ATS and the total is 7-2 this season.

West Virginia is coached by Dana Holgorsen. The Mountaineers opened the season with three straight non-conference wins all by blowouts. WVU beat Georgia Southern 44-0, Liberty 41-17 and Maryland 45-6. The Mountaineers have losses at Oklahoma 44-24, Baylor 62-38 and TCU 40-10 last Thursday, plus a home loss to Oklahoma State 33-26 in overtime.

West Virginia was a 12 point underdog at TCU and the total was 72.5. TCU scored the first 17 points of the game but West Virginia scored 10 straight points to pull within 17-10. The Mountaineers would not score again, as TCU closed the game on a 23-0 run. TCU had 616 total yards to 327 for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS and the total is also 2-5 this season.

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Texas Tech is outscoring teams 47-44 this season. The Red Raiders are #4 in scoring but #123 in points allowed nationally out of 128 teams. Texas Tech averages 604 yards per game on offense, including 413 passing and 199 rushing. The Red Raiders are #3 or better in both total and passing offense. Even the rushing attack is #39 nationally. On defense, Texas Tech is allowing 573 total yards including 302 passing and 271 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #122 or worse in all three categories. Tech has forced 18 turnovers and has 16 of their own. The Red Raiders average 62 penalty yards per game and opponents average 61 per game. Texas Tech is 84/156 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 78/152. The Red Raiders have forced 10 sacks and have allowed 13 this season. Texas Tech is 37/42 scoring in the red zone with 27 touchdowns and opponents are 39/46 with 36 touchdowns. The Red Raiders have two pick sixes and two kick returns for  touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 64.7% of his passes for 3,331 yards with 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, plus 73 carries for 327 yards and  touchdowns. Back-up Davis Webb has two rushing touchdowns, and has thrown for 300 yards and two touchdowns.

Running back DeAndre Washington has 147 carries for 932 yards and 9 touchdowns along with 23 catches for 190 yards and a touchdown. Justin Stockton has 51 carries for 318 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 226 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Receiver Jakeem Grant has 69 catches for 952 yards and 5 touchdowns. He also has a rushing touchdown, two kick returns for  touchdowns, and threw a touchdown pass. Grant is probable with an ankle injury.  Devin Lauderdale has 28 catches for 451 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Reginald Davis has 27 catches for 454  yards and 6 touchdowns.  Ian Sadler has 26 catches for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tony Brown, Cameron Batson, Zach Austin and Jonathan Giles will also get some catches. Giles has 3 touchdown catches. Including the running backs, eleven total receivers have double digit receptions this season.

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West Virginia is outscoring teams 33-29 this season. The Mountaineers are #50 in scoring nationally. West Virginia averages 463 yards per game on offense including 254 passing and 209 rushing yards. The Mountaineers are #42 or better in all three categories nationally. On defense, WVU is allowing 431 total yards including 255 passing and 176 rushing yards. The Mountaineers are #81 or worse in all three categories. West Virginia has forced 16 turnovers and has 13 of their own. The Mountaineers average 90 penalty yards per game and opponents average 73. West Virginia is 53/132 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 35/112. The Mountaineers have forced 12 sacks and allowed 20 this season. WVU is 24/31 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns, and opponents are 22/26 with 14 touchdowns. The Mountaineers have allowed 2 defensive touchdowns, and has a kickoff return for a touchdown.

Quarterback Skyler Howard has completed 55.9% of his passes for 1,726 yards with 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and also has 87 carries for 229 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Back-up William Crest, Jr. has seen some action. He has thrown for 53 yards, and has 15 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown.

Running back Wendell Smallwood has 121 carries for 791 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 19 catches for 107 yards. Rushel Shell has 95 carries for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 77 yards.

Receiver Shelton Gibson has 25 catches for 576 yards and 7 touchdowns. Jovon Durante has 19 catches for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns. Daikiel Shorts has 21 catches for 247 yards and a touchdown. Jordan Thompson has 14 catches for 199 yards.

Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS after a double digit home loss, 3-8 in road games, 2-6 after allowing 450 total yards or more, 3-10 in November, 1-4 in Big 12 games and overall.

West Virginia is 2-5 ATS in November, and on fieldturf, 3-8 after failing to cover, 7-19 against teams with winning road records, 2-7 after scoring less than 20 points, 1-4 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 1-5 after allowing more than 450 total yards, 1-6 after a straight up loss, 0-4 in Big 12 games, against teams with winning records and overall.

Neither of these teams have a good defense, and Texas Tech is beyond awful on defense. This should be  a very high scoring game. This line seems really high as West Virginia shouldn’t be an 8.5 point favorite over anyone in the Big 12 except for perhaps Kansas. I think Texas Tech has a legitimate shot to pull off the upset even on the road.

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