Big 12 College Football Betting Picks: Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks

Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks
Memorial Stadium – Lawrence, Kansas

Saturday, September 27, 2014, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: Texas -16 1/2
Current Line: Texas -12 1/2
Opening Total: 44 1/2
Current Total: 41 1/2
Opening Money Line: Texas -578 / Kansas +472
Current Money Line: Texas -500 / Kansas +400

Texas looks to snap a two game losing streak as they open Big 12 play at the Kansas Jayhawks Saturday.
Texas looks to snap a two game losing streak as they open Big 12 play at the Kansas Jayhawks Saturday.

Few thought that after 3 games that the Kansas Jayhawks would have a better record than the Texas Longhorns. Here we are though as the 2-1 Jayhawks host the 1-2 Longhorns in the Big 12 opener for both schools. Granted, Texas has played a much tougher schedule and is ravaged by injuries, suspensions and dismissals.

Texas leads the series 11-2 against Kansas, including 5-2 in Lawrence. The Longhorns won last year in Austin 35-13. Kansas hasn’t beaten Texas since 1938 and the Jayhawks have lost 11 straight games to the Longhorns.

Texas is coached by Charlie Strong. Strong, in his first year with the program, has already dismissed 9 players for violating team rules. Texas has a home win over North Texas 38-7. The Longhorns have lost two straight games at home to BYU 41-7 and to UCLA 20-17 in Arlington, Texas. Both BYU and UCLA are nationally ranked. Texas is 2-1 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season. The Longhorns were 8.5 point underdogs against UCLA and the total was 50.5. Texas was off last week.

Kansas is coached by Charlie Weis. The Jayhawks have home wins over SE Missouri State 34-28 and last week against Central Michigan 24-10. Kansas lost at Duke 41-3. The Jayhawks are 1-2 ATS and the total is 1-2. Kansas was a 5.5 point favorite against Central Michigan and the total was 45.

Texas is being outscored 23-21 this season. The Longhorns are averaging 311 yards per game on offense, including 187 passing and 124 rushing yards. Texas is #101 or worse out of 128 teams in all offensive categories. On defense, Texas is allowing 323 yards per game including 141 passing and  183 rushing yards. Texas is #8 in pass defense and #26 in total defense nationally. The Longhorns are -1 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. Texas is 15/49 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 18/53. The Longhorns are   9/11 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns and opponents are 8/8 with 5 touchdowns. Texas has forced 13 sacks and allowed 7 this season. The Longhorns are averaging 60 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 49 penalty yards per game. Texas has a pick six and has allowed a fumble return for a touchdown.

Texas quarterback David Ash ended his career after suffering another concussion. He missed most of last season with the same injury. Tyrone Swoopes is now the starter. He has completed 67.7% of his passes for for 372 yards with 3  touchdowns and an interception. Johnathan Gray has 37 carries for 178 yards. Malcolm Brown has 41 carries for  162 yards and 2 touchdowns. John Harris has 19 catches for 247 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jaxon Shipley has 20 catches for 144 yards.

Kansas is being outscored 26-20 this season. The Jayhawks are #111 in points allowed and #80 in scoring out of 128 FBS teams. Kansas is averaging 374 total yards per game  including 174 passing  and 200 rushing yards . On defense, the Jayhawks are allowing 404 yards per game including 218 passing  and 185 rushing yards. Kansas is +3 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. The Jayhawks average 73 penalty yards per game and opponents average  61. Kansas is 19/55 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 18/48. The Jayhawks have forced 4 sacks and allowed 6 this season. Kansas is 6/8 scoring in the red zone with 3 touchdowns, and opponents are also 6/8 with 3 touchdowns.

Kansas quarterback Montell Cozart has completed 54.8% of his passes for 511 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Running back Corey Avery has 46 carries for 213 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches and a receiving touchdown. De’Andre Mann has 35 carries for 212 yards. Rinnign back Brandon Bourbon is out for the season with a torn ACL.  Tony Pierson has 9 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. Jimmay Mundine and Nick Harweel each have 9 catches as well. Harwell has 2 touchdowns.

Texas is 4-1 ATS after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 6-2 against teams with winning records and 0-4 after a cover. The under is 4-1 in this series recently. Texas is 8-3 ATS against Kansas recently and was favored in each of those contests.

Kansas is 3-7 ATS at home, 2-5 against teams with losing records, 4-10 on fieldturf, 1-4 overall, 1-5-1 in September, 1-7-1 after a cover, 0-6 after a straight up win, and 0-4 after allowing less than 20 points. The home team is 6-2 ATS in this series recently.

Neither of these offenses are very good. This should be a low scoring game. Texas hasn’t been playing very well, but they are still better than Kansas. This line opened with Texas as a 16.5 point favorite and dropped to -12.5. I think Texas covers on the road.

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