Big 12 College Football Betting Picks: Baylor Bears at #11 Oklahoma Sooners

Baylor Bears at #11 Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, November 12, 2016, 12:00 pm Eastern, ABC/ESPN2
Memorial Stadium – Norman, Oklahoma
Opening Line: Oklahoma -14
Current Line: Oklahoma -16
Opening Total: 82 1/2
Current Total: 80
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -600 / Baylor +400
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -670 / Baylor +485

Oklahoma looks to remain unbeaten in Big 12 play as they host Baylor Saturday.
Oklahoma looks to remain unbeaten in Big 12 play as they host Baylor Saturday.

Two weeks ago Baylor was 6-0 and ranked #8. Two straight losses to Texas and TCU have sent them crashing out of the top 25. It doesn’t get any easier as the Bears travel to the #11 Oklahoma Sooners Saturday. The Sooners are 7-2 and have won five straight games, all in the Big 12 after a 1-2 non-conference slate. The Sooners lead the Big 12 over 5-1 Oklahoma State and 4-1 West Virginia. Baylor is in fourth place at 3-2 in the conference.

Oklahoma leads the series 22-3 against Baylor including 11-1 in Norman. The Sooners won 44-34 last year in Waco. All three Baylor wins in the series have come in the last five seasons.

Jim Grobe is the interim coach for Baylor. The Bears have home wins over Northwestern State 55-7, SMU 40-13, Oklahoma State 35-24, and Kansas 49-7, plus road wins at Rice 38-10 and Iowa State 45-42. The Bears lost at Texas 35-34 and at home to TCU 62-22 last week.  Baylor is 2-6 ATS and the total is 2-6. The Bears were 7 favorites against TCU and the total was 65.

Oklahoma is coached by Bob Stoops. The Sooners lost at Houston 33-23 and at home against Ohio State 45-24.  The Sooners have home wins over Louisiana-Monroe 59-17, Kansas State 38-17 and Kansas 56-3, plus road wins at TCU 52-46, Texas Tech 66-59 and Iowa State 34-24 last Thursday. Oklahoma has a neutral site win over Texas 45-40 in Dallas. Oklahoma was a 21 point favorite against Iowa State and the total was 71. Oklahoma is 3-6 ATS and the total is 5-4 this season.

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Baylor is outscoring teams 40-25 this season. The Bears are #15 in scoring and #47 in points allowed nationally. Baylor is averaging 542 yards per game on offense including 263 passing and 279 rushing yards. The Bears are in the top six nationally in total and rushing offense. On defense, Baylor is allowing 395 yards per game including 189 passing and 206 rushing yards. The Bears are #17 in pass defense and #101 in rush defense. Baylor is +5 in turnovers with 16 takeaways. The Bears average 78 penalty yards per game and opponents average 40 per game. Baylor is 77/164 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 58/143. The Bears have forced 19 sacks and allowed 13 this season. Baylor is 34/43 scoring in the red zone with 27 touchdowns and opponents are 24/29 with 17 touchdowns.

Quarterback Seth Russell has thrown for 1,978 yards with 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 82 carries for 436 yards and 8 touchdown. Zach Smith has thrown for 128 yards and a touchdown.

Running back Terence Williams has 121 carries for 691 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury.  Shock Linwood has 100 carries for 594 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is suspended for this game for violating team rules. JaMycal Hasty has 64 carries for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 3 catches for 26 yards. Running back Johnny Jefferson is out for the season for personal reasons.

Receiver K.D. Cannon has 40 catches for 560 yards and 6 touchdowns. Ishmael Zamora has 25 catches for 393 and 5 touchdowns. Blake Lynch has 26 catches for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. Chris Platt has 19 catches for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Three defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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Oklahoma is outscoring teams 44-32 this season. The Sooners are #7 in scoring and #93 in points allowed. The Sooners average 558 yards per game on offense including 342 passing and 216 rushing yards. The Sooners are #3 in total offense, #7 in passing and #32 in rushing nationally. On defense, Oklahoma allows 421 yards per game including 298 passing and 124 rushing yards. The Sooners are #121 in pass defense but #25 against the rush. Oklahoma is -5 in turnovers with 14 giveaways. The Sooners average 47 penalty yards per game and opponents average 52 per game. Oklahoma is 60/123 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 75/165. The Sooners have forced 20 sacks and allowed 18 this season. Oklahoma is 33/38 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns and opponents are 25/29 with 14 touchdowns.

Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2,912 yards with 31 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He has 57 carries for 119 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Back-up Austin Kendall has thrown for 143 yards with 2 touchdowns

Running back Joe Mixon has 119 carries for 813 yards and 5 touchdowns, and also has 24 catches for 357 yards and four touchdowns. He was suspended last week for violating team rules but returns for this game. Samaje Perine has 88 carries for 475 yards and 6 touchdowns along with 8 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown. He has missed the last three games with muscle strain in his leg but is listed as probable. Abdul Adams has 49 carries for 269 yards, plus 3 catches for 25 yards. Devin Montgomery is questionable with a head injury.

Receiver Dede Westbrook has has 64 catches for 1,166 yards and 12 touchdowns, plus 78 rushing yards. Mark Andrews has 23 catches for 359 yards and 6 touchdowns. Geno Lewis has 23 catches for 260 yards and a touchdown. Nick Basquine has 18 catches for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns.  A.D. Miller has 12 catches for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dimitri Flowers has 10 catches for 133 yards and four touchdowns, plus 22 carries for 115 yards. Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Baylor is 4-1 ATS after allowing 40 points or more, 18-8 against teams with winning records, 9-20 after a double digit home loss, 3-8 in big 12 games, 3-9 after a straight up loss by more than 20 points, 2-6 overall, 2-7 after allowing more than 450 total yards, 1-4 after passing for more than 280 yards, 2-8 on grass, 1-6 in November, and 0-4 in road games. The road team is 13-3 ATS in this series recently. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the series. Baylor is 4-1 ATS overall against Oklahoma, and has covered in their last 7 trips to Norman.

Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS after failing to cover, 9-4 in Big 12 games, 3-7 after gaining more than 450 total yards, overall and on grass, 2-5 after a straight up win, and 1-5 against teams with winning road records.

Baylor entered this season with an us against the world mentality under the cloud of a sexual assault cover up scandal that cost coach Art Briles his job. In fact, the Bears wore black uniforms last week in protest of Briles getting fired. They were crushed by 40 points and it wasn’t even that close. A very soft early season schedule masked a lot of the depth issues Baylor had, but now the wheels are starting to come off the Baylor bandwagon. I think this will be another blowout loss for the Bears. They can’t stop the run and they face two of the best backs in the nation with Mixon and Perine.

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