Big 12 College Football Betting Picks: #12 Baylor Bears at #15 Oklahoma Sooners

#12 Baylor Bears at #15 Oklahoma Sooners
Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium – Norman, Oklahoma

Saturday, November 8, 2014, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: Oklahoma -4
Current Line: Oklahoma -5
Opening Total: 73 1/2
Current Total: 72
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -240 / Baylor +200
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -220 / Baylor +185

Oklahoma is a 5 point favorite at home against Baylor in a key Big 12 contest Saturday.
Oklahoma is a 5 point favorite at home against Baylor in a key Big 12 contest Saturday.

At the beginning of the season, many thought the Oklahoma Baylor game would decide the Big 12 title. The two teams meet Saturday in Norman. It still might but Kansas State, TCU and West Virginia will all factor as well. The Baylor Bears  are 7-1 this season and 4-1 in the Big 12.  Baylor is tied with TCU for second behind first place Kansas State who is 5-0. Oklahoma is 6-2 this season and 3-2 in conference. The Sooners are alone in fifth place.

Oklahoma leads the series 21-2 against Baylor including 11-0 in Norman. Both Baylor wins in the series have come in the last 4 years including 41-12 last year in Waco.

Baylor is coached by Art Briles. The only loss came at West Virginia 41-27. Baylor has home wins over SMU 45-0, Northwestern State 70-6, TCU 61-58 and Kansas last week 60-14. The Bears have road wins at Buffalo 63-21, Iowa State 49-28, and Texas 28-7. Baylor is 5-2-1 ATS and the total is 5-3. The Bears were 34.5 point favorites against Kansas and the total was 59.5.

Oklahoma is coached by Bob Stoops. The Sooners have a road loss at TCU 37-33 and at home to Kansas State 31-30. Oklahoma has home wins over Louisiana Tech 48-16 and Tennessee 34-10, a neutral site win over Texas 31-26 in Dallas, and road wins over Tulsa 52-7, West Virginia 45-33 and last week against Iowa State 59-17. The Sooners are 4-4 ATS and the total is 7-1 this season. Oklahoma was a 15.5 point favorite against Iowa State and the total was 61.

Baylor is outscoring teams 50-22 this season. Baylor is #1 in scoring and #32 in points allowed nationally. The Bears are averaging 590 total yards per game including 349 passing yards and 241 rushing yards. The Bears are #1 in total offense, #5 in passing and #22 in rushing nationally. On defense, Baylor is allowing 323 yards per game on defense including 223 passing yards and 100 rushing yards per game. The Bears are #17 in total defense and #8 against the run. Baylor is +8 in turnovers with 16 takeaways. The Bears are averaging 98 penalty yards per game and opponents average 67 yards per game. Baylor is 79/162 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 48/150. The Bears have forced 27 sacks and have allowed 11. Baylor is 39/48 scoring in the red zone with 29 touchdowns, and opponents are 17/19 with 12 touchdowns. The Bears have one defensive touchdown and has allowed a pick six and a kick return for a touchdown.

Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty has completed 54.8% of his passes for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, plus 52 carries for 111 yards and 3 touchdowns. Seth Russell has completed 58.2% of his passes for 713 yards with 7 touchdowns and an interception and also rushed for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns. Most of Russell’s stats came in the first two games of the season when Petty missed a game and a half with a back injury.

Running back Shock Linwood has 154 carries for 177 yards and 10 touchdowns, plus 3 catches for 57 yards.  Johnny Jefferson has 72 carries for 388 yards and 3 touchdowns. Devin Chafin has 44 catches for 227 yards and 3 touchdowns. Silas Nacita has 31 carries for 191 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver KD Cannon has 36 catches for 714 yards and 6 touchdowns. Corey Coleman has 29 catches for 572 yards and 7 touchdowns. Antwan Goodley has 29 catches for 480 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jay Lee has 23 catches for 397 yards and 5 touchdowns. Davion Hall has 15 catches for 210 yards and a touchdown.

Oklahoma is outscoring teams 42-22 this season. The Sooners are #9 in scoring and #31 in points allowed nationally. Oklahoma is averaging 495 yards per game on offense including 263 passing and 232 rushing yards. The Sooners are in the top 25 nationally in both total and rushing offense. On defense, Oklahoma is allowing 384 yards per game including 266 passing and 118 rushing. The Sooners are #108 out of 128 teams in pass defense and #18 in rush defense. Oklahoma is +7 in turnovers with 19 takeaways. The Sooners average 49 penalty yards per game and opponents average 49 as well. Oklahoma is 50/117 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 56/141. The Sooners have forced 21 sacks and allowed 5 this season. Oklahoma is 33/39 scoring in the red zone with 29 touchdowns and opponents are 18/23 with 11 touchdowns. The Sooners have 3 pick sixes and 2 kick returns for touchdowns. Oklahoma has allowed 2 pick sixes this season.

Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight has completed 59.5% of his passes for 2,051 yards with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 53 carries for 295 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns. Running back Samaje Perine has 150 carries for 767 yards and 11 touchdowns, plus 10 catches for 55 yards. Alex Ross has 58 carries for 420 yards and 3 touchdowns. Ross also has 9 catches for 66 yards and 2 kick returns for touchdowns. Keith Ford has 34 carries for 194 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with an ankle injury and has missed the last 5 games.

Receiver Sterling Shepard has 50 catches for 957 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is probable with a groin injury. Durron Neal has 31 carries for 399 yards and a touchdown. K.J. Young has 15 catches for 170 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Blake Bell has 13 catches for 154 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Baylor is 7-1 ATS after gaining more than 450 total yards, 9-2 in November, 4-1-1 after passing for more than 280 yards, 12-3-1 after a straight win by 20 points or more, 23-6 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 20-6-1 overall, 13-4-1 after a cover, 21-7-1 after scoring more than 40 points, 15-5 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 3-1-1 on grass, 23-8 after allowing less than 20 points, 20-7-1 after a straight up win, 8-3 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 18-7-1 in Big 12 games, and 1-4 against teams with winning records. The road team is 11-3 ATS  in this series recently. Baylor has covered 4 of the last 5 games against Oklahoma, and is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in Norman.

Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS after a straight up win of 20 points or more and after allowing 20 points or less, 5-1 ATS after a cover, 6-2 after scoring more than 40 points, after a straight up win and against teams with winning records and 1-4 against teams with winning road records. The over is 5-2 in this series recently.

Baylor should have a field day against Oklahoma’s porous pass defense. Both teams are among the leaders in scoring nationally so this should be a shootout. The Sooners made far too many mistakes against TCU and Kansas State in narrow losses. If they make those same mistakes against Baylor then the Bears will get their first ever win in Norman.

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  1. Before you write an article acting like you know something about the sport, you should get actual facts and numbers correct. OU beat ISU last weekend 59-14.

  2. you are right. I watched the game and knew the score, but it was a typo. Sometimes my brain works faster than I can type. Thanks for catching it.

  3. The whole Oklahoma program needs a clean house . Get rid of the Stupid , arrogant , no coaching Stoops Brothers. Bob Stoops has lost his edge, desire, fire and all semblance of a head coach . He along with his stupid dumb brother need to go. They are stinking up the OKlahoma legacy. Enough of the same old platitudes and arrogant responses to the media and press. They are just plain out dated and out coached. Also , get rid of Heopel . They all need to go. We need a coach with forsight and wisdom like the Arizona State coach. Arizona State let Notre Dame know , that they were not coming into there fleld and win. I am sick of Bob Stoops and his same old B. S. He gets paid to well to do a poor job. The people of Oklahoma are to complacent. This guy has been living off hot air to long . Away with his sorry behind. Oklahoma can do much better job. A hot and upset Sooner in California.

  4. I get the frustration of Sooner fans. I was born in Oklahoma and live just outside of Oklahoma City. However, despite all of his faults Oklahoma has never bottomed out under Stoops like programs such as Michigan, Florida and Texas have in recent years. Oklahoma will win at least 8 or 9 games every year and go to a bowl games. They will compete for the Big 12 title almost every year. Obviously, that isn’t good enough for passionate Sooner fans as they expect to compete for National titles every year. Thanks for the comment.

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