Big 12 Championship Odds, Trends: (14) Texas Longhorns at (5) Oklahoma Sooners

Week 7College Football Lines & Odds
Title week is here!

Texas at Oklahoma
Time: 11 AM CT
Spread: OK -8
Total: 78

Odds c/o Bovada

The Oklahoma Sooners are 11-1 and in first place in the Big 12. It will take on the No. 2 Texas Longhorns at home for the Big 12 title. Texas is 9-3 overall and has a 7-2 mark in Big 12 play. The Longhorns won the first matchup between these teams 48-45, but it Oklahoma is 8-point favorites at home to take the Conference title.

OK

Oklahoma is ranked No. 5 and its only loss of the season was that three-point fall to Texas. Since that game in Week 6, the Sooners have won six straight games. It narrowly edged by West Virginia last week with a 59-56 victory as Kyler Murray threw 20 of 27 for 364 yards, three touchdowns with one interception. Kennedy Brooks also had a monster game in the backfield with 182 yards on 21 attempts, while Murray added another 114 yards on his nine carries. The Sooners amassed 668 total yards of offense, but it also surrendered 539 passing yards to WVU quarterback Will Grier. It will need to tighten the reigns on its defense this week against Texas to avoid a season-sweep at the hands of the Longhorns, never mind losing the title game.

Murray has been sensational in his junior season for the Sooners. He has 3,674 yards on 70.6 percent passing with 37 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. He has rushed for 90 yards or more four times this season, with both of the last two weeks topping that mark. He had 99 rushing yards on just eight carries in the 55-40 win over Kansas and last week’s 114 represented his season rushing high. The Dual-threat quarterback is carrying a strong offense that ranks No. 18 in the nation at 50.2 points per game. The Sooners defense is allowing 32.8, but given the offensive dominance, it has been steady enough to guide the team to an 11-1 mark. It needs this victory to have any reasonable shot at cracking the top-4 and joining the college football playoff.

TEX

The No. 14 Texas Longhorns are 9-3 and have won three straight games entering this Conference title game. Sam Ehlinger has thrown for 2.774 yards at a 64.4 percent clip with 23 TDs and four interceptions. His top passing targets have been Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson, who has caught for 1,058 and 768 yards, respectively, on the season, with 14 reception TDs between them. The Longhorns average 257.4 passing yards per game, but its rush attack lingers behind at 156.4. Defensively, it has been better than Oklahoma in allowing just 25.2 points per game, but its offense is nowhere near as vaunted in tallying just 31.2 per contest.

The top rusher is Keaontay Ingram, who has rushed for 676 yards on 129 carries with three Touchdowns. Tre Watson is the No. 2 back and he averages 4.3 yards-per-carry on the season with three TDs to his name as well. But Ehlinger has added a lot from the QB position, often making red zone dashes and leading all rushers with 11 TDs.

Though Ehlinger averages just 2.9 yards-per-carry, he has been effective at picking his spots to score, and he has overall had a great year marked by his 147.5 passer rating. Texas will really need to dig in defensively to make the most of having the strong defense because Oklahoma can really rattle points onto the scoreboard, and that is why the Sooners enter as better-than-a-touchdown favorites in this Conference title game.

ATS TRENDS:

Texas
  • Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
  • Longhorns are 13-5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Longhorns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Oklahoma
  • Sooners are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Sooners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
  • Sooners are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Sooners are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Sooners are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
  • Sooners are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
  • Sooners are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Sooners are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Sooners are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
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