Big 12 Betting Preview: Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers

#16 Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers
Faurot Field – Columbia, Missouri
Saturday, November 12, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: FX
Opening Line: Texas -2
Current Line: Texas -1 1/2
Opening Total: 58 1/2
Current Total: 58 1/2
Opening Money Line: Texas -120 / Missouri +100
Current Money Line: Texas -115 / Missouri -105

Texas is a 1 1/2 point favorite on the road at Missouri in a key Big 12 game Saturday afternoon.

The 6-2 Texas Longhorns are 3-2 in the Big 12 with the two losses coming to Oklahoma 55-17 and at home to Oklahoma St 38-26. The #16 Longhorns want to prove they are the third best team in one of the nation’s toughest conferences, but Kansas St might have something to say about that next week. However, first things first. This week Texas travels to 4-5 Missouri who is 2-4 in Big 12 play. Texas, coached by Mack Brown, has home  wins over Rice 34-9, BYU 17-16, Kansas 43-0 and last week at Texas Tech 52-20, along with road wins at UCLA 49-20 and Iowa St 37-14. Missouri is coached by Gary Pinkel and has home wins over Miami-Ohio 17-6, Western Illinois 69-0, Iowa St 52-17, and a road win at Texas A&M 38-31 in overtime. Missouri has  road losses at Arizona St 37-30 in overtime, Oklahoma 38-28, Kansas St 24-17, and last week at Baylor 42-39, along with a home loss to Oklahoma St 45-24. Missouri needs two wins in their last three games to be bowl eligible. Texas leads the series 17-5 against Missouri and has won 6 straight including 41-7 two seasons ago in Columbia. Missouri has beaten Texas only once since 1931.

Texas was a 14 point favorite at home last week against Texas Tech on the college football betting line. The game was tied 3-3 at the end of the first quarter but Texas scored 28 second quarter points to take control of the game 31-6 at halftime. The Longhorns never looked back as they rolled 52-20. Texas had 595 yards including 439 rushing yards. Texas quarterback David Ash threw for 125 yards and rushed for 59 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Case McCoy threw a 31 yard touchdown pass in his only attempt. Running back Joe Bergeron had 29 carries, 191 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Foswhitt Whittaker had 10 carries, 83 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Texas Tech had 411 total yards but only 30 rushing yards. Neither team had a turnover, but their were 14 combined penalties.

Texas is averaging 437.1 yards and 34.4 points a game. The Longhorns average 190.8 passing yards, and 246.4 rushing yards a game. Texas is #11 rushing in the country.  Texas has 15 turnovers and has allowed 19 sacks. Texas is 63/131 on third and fourth down conversions, and 30/40 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. The Longhorns allow 310.8 yards and 21.5 points a game. Texas gives up 215.9 passing yards and 94.9 rushing yards a game. The rush defense is #9 nationally. Texas has forced 15 turnovers and 14 sacks this season. Longhorn opponents are 41/126 on third and fourth down conversions, and 22/26 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. Texas has 3 special teams touchdowns this season, but has allowed 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns. Although 3 came in the Oklahoma game.

Texas quarterbacks David Ash and Case McCoy were platooning until three games ago when Ash was named the full time starter. Ash is 65/105 passing for 740 yards, 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and he has a rushing touchdown and 73 yards on the ground. McCoy is 37/55 passing for 475 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receivers John Harris and Jaxon Shipley each have a touchdown pass out of the Wildcat formation. Running back Malcolm Brown has 131 carries, 635 yards, and 5 touchdowns. He missed the last game with turf toe and is questionable against Missouri. Bergeron has 60 carries, 414 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Whittaker has 62 carries, 371 yards, and 6 touchdowns, and 16 catches, 145 yards, and a touchdown catch. Whittaker also has 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns.  Fullback Cody Johnson has 4 touchdown runs. Receiver Mike Davis has 29 catches, 490 yards, and a touchdown. Shipley has 33 catches, 438 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 11 carries for 39 yards. He missed the last game with a knee injury and is questionable this week  D.J. Grant has 9 catches and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Justin Tucker is 34/34 on extra points, and 11/12 on field goals with a long of 52 yards.

Last week Missouri was a 2.5 point underdog at Baylor. Missouri was up 14-13 at halftime. Baylor took a 42-25 lead midway through the fourth quarter, but Missouri scored two late touchdowns to make the final 42-39. There were 14 combined penalties and each team had one turnover. Missouri had 578 total yards including 253 rushing yards. Missouri quarterback James Franklin threw for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus he had 57 rushing yards. Running back Henry Josey had 15 carries, for 132 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Marcus Lucas had 4 catches, 80 yards and a touchdown. Baylor had 697 total yards including 406 passing yards.

Missouri is averaging 500 yards and 34.9 points a game. The Tigers are 12th in the nation in rushing with 244.9 yards a game. The Tigers also average 255.1 passing yards a game. Missouri has 13 turnovers and has allowed 13 sacks this season. The Tigers are 57/143 on third and fourth down conversions. The Tigers are 37/41 scoring in the red zone and have 27  touchdowns. Missouri is giving up 416.2 yards a game including 148.6 rushing yards and 267.7 passing yards. Missouri is allowing 26.7 points a game.  The Tigers have forced 15 turnovers and 20 sacks this season. Tiger opponents are 65/154 on third and fourth down conversions, and 28/37 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. Missouri has one special teams touchdown this season on a punt return.

Franklin is 179/286 passing with 2,195 yards, 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 149 carries, 599 yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns. He is probable with a hip injury Josey has 134 carries, 1,149 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 84 yards. Josey is probable with a shoulder injury. Kendial Lawrence has 53 carries, 215 yards, and 2 touchdowns, and 5 catches for 19 yards. Five Tiger receivers have caught at least two touchdown passes this season. T.J.  Moe has 44 catches, 547 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Michael Egnew has 42 catches, 432 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Lucas has 18 catches, 293 yards, and 3 touchdowns.  Wes Kemp has 21 catches, 233 yards, and 3 touchdowns. La’Damian Washington has only 14 catches, but has three touchdown catches.  Kicker Grant Ressel is 30/30 on extra points and 9/16 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. He is listed as doubtful with a hip injury and has missed the last 2 games. Punter Trey Barrow will handle the kicking duties if Ressel can’t go. He is 9/9 on extra points and 2/3 on field goals with a long of 30 yards.  The Tigers have 5  players out for the season including 2 offensive linemen and 2 linebackers.

Missouri is 5-4 against the spread this season and the total is 6-3 in those games. Texas is 5-3 ATS and the total is 4-3-1 in those games. The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS as a favorite, 3-0-1 as a favorite of 3 points or less, 4-0-1 as a road favorite of 3 points or less, 5-0 on the road against teams with losing home records, 18-7 versus teams with losing records, 4-9 after a straight up win, 3-7 in conference games, and 2-6 after a cover the previous game. The Tigers are 4-0 after failing to cover, 21-5 after allowing 40 points or more, 2-5 in November, 2-7 on turf, 1-4 as a home dog, and 1-6 at home against teams with winning road records.

Missouri has been disappointing this season, but has shown flashes of being a good team. It is hard to figure out the Tigers, as you don’t know which team will show up. The Tigers have played a lot of close games and this game will continue that trend.

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