Big 12 Betting Preview: Iowa St Cyclones at Oklahoma Sooners

Iowa St Cyclones at #9 Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – Norman, Oklahoma
Saturday, November 26, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: FX
Opening Line: Oklahoma -28
Current Line: Oklahoma -28 1/2
Opening Total: 61 1/2
Current Total: 61 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -6200 / Iowa St +2800
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -8000 / Iowa St +3375

Big 12 preview
Landry Jones and the Oklahoma Sooner look to rebound from a devastating loss at Baylor last week as they host Iowa St. They Cyclones upset Oklahoma St last week.

Iowa St and Oklahoma were on opposite ends of BCS busting upsets last week that were decided on the last play of the game. Iowa St upset then #2 and undefeated Oklahoma St 37-31 in double overtime. Oklahoma was ranked #5 last week and lost at Baylor for the first time ever 45-38. Iowa St is 6-4 under coach Paul Rhoads, and are bowl eligible. Oklahoma is 8-2 under coach Bob Stoops and can still win the Big 12 title if they win here and at Oklahoma St next week. Oklahoma leads the overall series 68-5-2 including 35-3-1 in Norman. Oklahoma has won 12 straight in the series since 1990, including 52-0 last year in Norman.

Last week, Iowa St was a 26.5 underdog at home against Oklahoma St on the college football betting line. However, someone forgot to tell the Cyclones they were supposed to roll over and let Oklahoma St crush them. Oklahoma St scored first on a 70 yard pick six near the end of the first quarter. Oklahoma St was up 17-7 at halftime but the high octane offense for Oklahoma St wasn’t firing on all cylinders like it had been all season. The Cowboys scored in the third quarter to take a 24-7 lead. Iowa St scored 17 straight points to tie it up at 24 with 5 minutes left. Oklahoma St had a chance to win near the end of regulation but normally reliable kicker Quinn Sharp missed a 37 yard field goal over the right upright. Certain angles showed the kick might have been good, but it was tough to tell. The game went into overtime and Iowa St scored a touchdown on their first play from scrimmage. Oklahoma St tied it up to send it into double overtime. Oklahoma St quarterback Brandon Weeden threw his third interception of the day. Iowa St then scored a touchdown on a 4 yard run from running back Jeff Woody to pull off the huge upset 37-31. OSU was unable to overcome 10 penalties and 5 turnovers, although Iowa St had 8 penalties and 3 turnovers of their own. Iowa St had 568 total yards including 376 passing yards from quarterback Jared Barnett who threw 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Barnett also had 84 rushing yards on 14 carries. Woody had 12 carries for 54 yards and the winning touchdown. James White had 11 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown, along with 3 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown reception. Receiver Albert Gary had 7 catches, 109 yards and a touchdown. OSU had 536 yards including 476 passing yards.

Iowa St is averaging 410.1 yards a game including 226.2 passing yards and 183.9 rushing yards. The Cyclones are scoring 25.3 points a game. The Cyclones have 26 turnovers and have allowed 21 sacks. Iowa St is 86/198 on third and fourth down conversions, and 29/42 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns. The Cyclones are allowing 431.6 yards including 188.4 rushing yards and 243.2 passing yards a game on defense. Iowa St is  allowing 29.9 points a game. The Cyclones have forced 20 turnovers and 13 sacks. Iowa St opponents are 61/156 on third and fourth down conversions, and 33/42 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. The Cyclones average 7 penalties for 59 yards a game. Iowa St has one defensive touchdown this season.

Barnett took over as the quarterback after Steele Jantz was benched 4 games ago. Barnett is 80/158 passing (50.6% completion) for 900 yards, with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 72 carries, 788 yards, and a touchdown. Jantz was 123/228 (53.9% completion) passing for 1,322 yards with 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions along with 78 carries, 180 yards, and 2 touchdowns.  White has 141 carries, 671 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 20 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown. Shontrelle Johnson has 51 carries for 247 yards,and 5 catches for 40 yards. He is out for the season with a neck injury. Woody has 50 carries, 215 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Darius Reynolds has 33 catches, 568 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Aaron Horne has 33 catches, 385 yards and no touchdowns. Josh Lenz has 34 catches, 427 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a leg injury against Oklahoma. Gary has 14 catches, 185 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable for personal reasons. Kicker Zach Guyer is 26/26 on extra points and 8/11 on field goals with a 43 yard kick. Grant Mahoney is 2-4 on extra points. He is 1-4 for the season on field goals with a 54 yard kick. Iowa St has 7 players out indefinitely or for the season and 4 more listed as questionable including 6 skill position players and 3 offensive linemen.

Oklahoma had never lost to Baylor in 20 previous meetings until last week. The Sooners were 16.5 point favorites on the road. The two teams exchanged field goals in the first quarter. Baylor took a 17-10 lead late in the second quarter on a 69 yard touchdown pass from Heisman Trophy contending quarterback Robert Griffin III to Tevin Reese. Oklahoma scored two early touchdowns in the third quarter to take a 24-17 lead. However, Baylor scored a touchdown on an incredible play. Griffin threw the ball from his own 13 on third and long.  It bounced out of a Baylor receiver’s hands into a wide open Kendall Wright’s arms, who galloped to an 87 yard touchdown. The shellshocked Sooners gave up two more touchdowns in a row to go down 38-24 at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Oklahoma fought back to tie it up at 38 with 51 seconds left. The Sooners were going to go for 2 points and try to win the game before a false start penalty forced them to kick the extra point to tie it. Baylor was content to run out the clock and go to overtime as the Bears had no timeouts. However, Oklahoma used one of their timeouts hoping to get the ball back. Baylor then marched all the down the field and scored the game winning touchdown on a 31 yard touchdown pass from Griffin to Terrance Williams. Baylor won 45-38 to knock the Sooners out of the National Championship picture. Oklahoma had 9 penalties and 3 turnovers in the loss. The Sooners had 605 total yards including 447 passing yards from quarterback Landry Jones who threw an interception but no touchdowns. Back-up quarterback Blake Bell, nicknamed the “Belldozer” had 4 short rushing touchdowns, all in goal to goal situations. He would have run the ball on the two point conversion try late in the game if not for the penalty.   Running back Roy Finch had 17 carries for 95 yards. Receiver Jaz Reynolds had 7 catches for 114 yards. Tight end James Hanna had 4 catches for 90 yards, and Kenny Stills had 6 catches for 75 yards. Baylor had 616 total yards including 485 passing yards. Griffin threw for 479 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 18 carries for 72 yards.

Oklahoma averages 551.8 yards a game including 387.5 passing yards and 164.3 rushing yards. Oklahoma scores 44.7 points a game. The Sooners rank in the top 6 in the country in all categories except the running game. Oklahoma has 19 turnovers and has allowed 6 sacks this season. The Sooners are 72/156 on third and fourth down conversions, and 48/53 scoring in the red zone with 34 touchdowns. Oklahoma allows 385.8 yards a game, including 258.1 passing yards and 127.7 rushing yards a game. Oklahoma allows 22.3 points  game. The Sooners have forced 20 turnovers and 36 sacks this season. Oklahoma opponents are 50/165 on third and fourth down conversions and 19/27 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. Oklahoma has 4 defensive touchdowns this season.

Jones is 290/444 passing (65.3% completions) for 3,796 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, plus 2 rushing touchdowns. Oklahoma has lost leading rusher Dominique Whaley (broken ankle) and leading receiver Ryan Broyles (torn ACL) for the season due to injuries. Whaley had 113 carries, 627 yards and and 9 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 153 yards before the injury. Finch has 81 carries, 453 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 26 catches for 231 yards. Brennan Clay has 57 carries, 202 yards, and a touchdown along with 13 catches for 75 yards. Bell has 25 carries, 78 yards and 7 touchdowns this season. Broyles had 83 catches, 1,157 yards, and 10 touchdowns before his injury. Reynolds has 39 catches, 692 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Stills has 47 catches, 685 yards and 8 touchdowns. Hanna has 21 catches, 317 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Kicker Michael Hunnicutt is 48/49 on extra points and 15/18 on field goals with a long of 53 yards. Seven OU players are listed as questionable, doubtful or out including Whaley and Broyles.

Oklahoma is 6-4 against the spread and the total is 6-4 this season. Iowa St is 5-5 ATS and the total is 4-6 this season. Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 against Iowa St. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS after failing to cover, 4-1 in November, 7-2 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more, 6-2 after allowing 40 points or more, 20-7 after a straight up loss, 8-3 in home games, and as a home favorite, 5-2 on grass, 9-4 against teams with winning records, and as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. The Cyclones are 23-11 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, 2-7 after a cover, and 1-5 in road games against teams with winning home records.

Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops says his team is still excited about the chance to win the Big 12 title even though they are eliminated from the National Title picture. The Sooners are 6-0 ATS after a conference loss in the last 3 seasons. The Sooners are usually pretty good at rebounding under Stoops. If either Iowa St or Oklahoma is in for an emotional letdown I think the Cyclones are more likely to do so. Iowa St has to go on the road after the biggest win in school history and really has nothing to play for since they are already bowl eligible. I like Oklahome to win convincingly but I could see a backdoor cover with Iowa St.

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